Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Cloud 10]

Cracking cold front spreading south on ecm 12z.

 

[Griff]

Yeap still cold

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192:

This one just swinging a little west of a direct hit, compared to GFS, but definitely snow chances there.

[LRD]

Very coldest air decides to give us a swerve but still pretty cold in the north and west

Scotland potentially pretty snowy along with NI and NE coasts

The south and SE left in no mans land really - actually similar to how much of winter 2020-21 turned out.

Edited March 28, 2021 by LRD

[Don]

8 minutes ago, LRD said:

Very coldest air decides to give us a swerve but still pretty cold in the north and west

Scotland potentially pretty snowy along with NI and NE coasts

The south and SE left in no mans land really - actually similar to how much of winter 2020-21 turned out.

Cold still delayed and yes the same theme continues for the south....

[LRD]

All goes a bit Lionel* at the end

But ECM has been persistent with that low at that timescale for the last 3 or 4 runs now

 

*messy

Edited March 28, 2021 by LRD

[ICE COLD]

Just catching up , lol the GFS 12z is an absolute snorter . That would be amazing if it came off . 
 

Just look at these for April

[Cloud 10]

Interesting end to the  ECM...

 

[LRD]

30 minutes ago, Don said:

Cold still delayed and yes the same theme continues for the south....

Compared to yesterday's runs the cold has actually been brought forward slightly. Only by a few hours but, still. So if cold is your thing don't despair too much

I know what you mean though - it was originally Thursday this week when real cold was first shown to be moving in

Edited March 28, 2021 by LRD

[Frigid]

GEFS 850s averaging near -10c around Easter Monday. In winter that would be incredible, never mind in April. 

[Don]

35 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Interesting end to the  ECM...

 

Often is interesting at the end of the ECM run!

[nick sussex]

I’m not a big fan of cold conditions in April but if it’s going to happen you may aswell aim high !

Some quite unusual depth of cold is on offer for the time of the year , you do need though a direct hit.

Both the ECM and GFS also  bring down some shortwave energy south on the eastern flank of the high .

Which could develop further interest for especially higher ground .

Deep upper cold and sufficient instability at this time of year can provide some fireworks with some notable downdrafts so a rapid fall in temps with hail and snow as the freezing level lowers during heavier showers .

It could be quite a shock after some warm conditions over the next few days .

Still time for more changes and the depth of cold and whether it makes that direct hit isn’t yet confirmed .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’m not a big fan of cold conditions in April but if it’s going to happen you may aswell aim high !

Some quite unusual depth of cold is on offer for the time of the year , you do need though a direct hit.

Both the ECM and GFS also  bring down some shortwave energy south on the eastern flank of the high .

Which could develop further interest for especially higher ground .

Deep upper cold and sufficient instability at this time of year can provide some fireworks with some notable downdrafts so a rapid fall in temps with hail and snow as the freezing level lowers during heavier showers .

It could be quite a shock after some warm conditions over the next few days .

Still time for more changes and the depth of cold and whether it makes that direct hit isn’t yet confirmed .

is it that cold though? don't know much about temps in Loudres? 14 degrees off that?

[Don]

12 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Just had to have a peek at all the runs this evening! 

Already mentioned Monday and Tuesday a few times now so starting with Wednesday - run to run now a bit more steady with regards to another warm day in the bag! 
I will be shivering in 8C while Heathrow bathes in 20/21C at least. 

I mean this year so far the UK has had...the coldest January since 2010, coldest February night since 1955, 20C+ about to be registered in the final days of March...so why not a big April snowstorm!? 

Great model/chart viewing at the moment!

I mentioned earlier that as per usual the warmth is being extended!  I think 23, perhaps 24C is likely in London on Tuesday/Wednesday.

As for those ECM charts, I would give them about a 5% chance of coming off.  Quite right though, always interesting to see!

Edited March 28, 2021 by Don

[Jordan S]

8 hours ago, Stav said:

Has there ever been snow in the south in April that has settled for any length of time? I can remember it snowing heavily in April and as late as May when I was young, but always disappearing quickly.

Hi

I remember snow falling in berkshire one morning I think it was around the 6th april 2008, didn't last long though but I think there was a patchy covering on the fields.. I think there was a lengthier more widespread covering in some other places.

Anyway the warmth from tomorrow lasting into wednesday too.. a maximum temperature most likely reaching a warm 22c or 23c locally on tuesday but possibly wednesday too, fairly widely for most of England temperatures close to 20c.. possibly for parts of Wales too.

Upper air temperatures..

Then mostly dry weather with colder air already in the north moving south across most areas during thursday, quite a lot cooler for central parts of England in particular with frosts likely in some places here northwards on thursday and friday night.

Thursday..

Friday..

The weekend will probably be mainly dry, high pressure centred just to the northwest of the UK temperatures probably remaining similar to thursday and friday. 

Unlike before, I'll continue posting updates through the rest of spring and also summer too, with hopefully a continuation of variable, interesting but not too disruptive weather for all to come.

[Mike Poole]

Swing back to cold again on the ECM clusters T192-T240, the key timescale:

Cluster 1 the fail.

Cluster 2 the snowy one.

Cluster 3 the very cold one.

Not over this, by any means, it is coming from the north for sure - but as @nick sussex says above, a direct hit is crucial at this time of year...and it is still definitely there amongst the envelope of solutions in the 8-10 day period.  

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

is it that cold though? don't know much about temps in Loudres? 14 degrees off that?

5C that’s decidedly cold for April, 10C below average April maxima.

 

Wednesday midday just for fun crazy snow storm in west.

[Snowman.]

Absolutely insane charts for April, chance of some proper cold for many next weekend. While I am awaiting the warmer weather with restricitions being eased the chance of snow will top anything.

Great to see to so many of you still in action!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Kind of reminding me very much of late March into April 2012. Balmy weather followed by a retrogression of the high out west, allowing unseasonable cold to follow, and potentially very dull, wet and even snowy! 

Kind of hoping the cold gets diverted out west to form a low with more April showers. A cold Northerly would’ve been best reserved a couple of months ago, and just isn’t the same in BST. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Swing back to cold again on the ECM clusters T192-T240, the key timescale:

Cluster 1 the fail.

Cluster 2 the snowy one.

Cluster 3 the very cold one.

Not over this, by any means, it is coming from the north for sure - but as @nick sussex says above, a direct hit is crucial at this time of year...and it is still definitely there amongst the envelope of solutions in the 8-10 day period.  

Two out of three ain't bad

The EPS at day ten plus the cpc 6-10/8-14 day height anomalies

so looking cool to cold with winds from a N/NW quadrant

and look what the cat dragged in,...the NAO/AO look to tank well into -values...

after the warmth at the beginning of this week,...Spring could be on a slow burner.

 

[Don]

14 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Hi

I remember snow falling in berkshire one morning I think it was around the 6th april 2008, didn't last long though but I think there was a patchy covering on the fields.. I think there was a lengthier more widespread covering in some other places.

Anyway the warmth from tomorrow lasting into wednesday too.. a maximum temperature most likely reaching a warm 22c or 23c locally on tuesday but possibly wednesday too, fairly widely for most of England temperatures close to 20c.. possibly for parts of Wales too.

 

6th April 2008 would be correct.  A good covering IMBY at the time but had all but gone by mid afternoon.

The warmth on Tuesday/Wednesday is also more widespread than modeled a few days ago.

[damianslaw]

A week of two halves on the way, doesn't get more varied..

First half until Thursday, very mild away from far north, locally warm in central and more especially south east parts by Tuesday, the warmth holding here on Wednesday but quickly loses its grip further north.

Thursday the transitional day for southern parts as a cold front moves down, temps likely to drop at least 10 degrees. 

Rest of the week case of looking north, and awaiting to see where the arctic is unleashed. ECM and GFS both show a direct hit during Easter Sunday for the north, enveloping whole country by Easter Monday. Could all hit us, but we'll see some effect at least, degree is subject to debate but potential very significant cold for early April. Reminds me of the winter shortlived northerly being followed by the long drawn south westerly, this time its the other way round, the warm southerly turned on its head to the cross polar flow northerly. Extreme warmth can often be closely followed by extreme cold in April, all symptomatic of an amplified flow.

Edited March 28, 2021 by damianslaw

[Frosty.]

Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean has an unseasonably wintry look to it later, if anything, even more so than last nights 12z?...more of an upgrade than a downgrade in my opinion. ️  

[Iceman2606]

A lovely 3 days coming up! Plenty of sunshine and temperatures widely in the high teens and possibly low twenties especially for England & Wales☀?

Do make the most of it tho as things look set to turn colder by the weekend

[Allseasons-Si]

@Jon Snow(Karl),...i had to look at these from a NH pov and WOW!!! 

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2021 by Allseasons-si