Model output discussion 10/02/21

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144, the cold is on its way:

GFS same time for comparison:

GFS building the heights into Greenland a little more but otherwise similar:

Next Saturday

Been watching this for a few days now and all I see is the Good Friday and Easter Saturday weather being moderated and the really cold air being pushed back just a little bit further each time (now isn't that a familiar tale). GFS could be right but MetO and ECM are far less convincing for unusual cold

[Cloud 10]

ECM teeing up the arctic blast at 168 hrs.

Will it be straight down the middle or a big slice?

 

[LRD]

ECM 168 uppers

Cold? What cold?

No heatwave either, admittedly, just a lot of meh

[LRD]

@Snowy L

You called it mate - going west on ECM:

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192:

As I said earlier, needs a direct hit, this one just going a bit west for me, towards the edge of the envelope of possibilities, I would say.  South will stay mild on this one.

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192:

As I said earlier, needs a direct hit, this one just going a bit west for me, towards the edge of the envelope of possibilities, I would say.  South will stay mild on this one.

Yes, heading West is still not the favoured outcome and I wouldn't be betting on that if I was a gambling man. But there have been hints over the last couple of days that it might end up west-based

Interesting stuff

[tight isobar]

Potent potent.. potent.. it’s an alarming lot of synoptics.. April or otherwise.. the arctic is literally spilling our way... wow the contrasting sequences other the nxt 12 days is something to behold...amazing stuff right now!!!!.. .. just dropping  these in....

[LRD]

Looks unstable but, for England and Wales not cold (not sure it's that cold for Scotland and Ireland either). There's almost a SW'ly wind on this chart!

Pretty cold for ships in the North Atlantic though

[Frosty.]

Wow if the ECM backs any further west it’s a warm southerly at day 10!...as I said earlier, downgrades don’t bother me at all at this time of year onwards..if it was winter I would be upset if this is the new trend but it isn’t..we are well into spring now with the clocks about to spring forward..

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Wow if the ECM backs any further west it’s a warm southerly at day 10!...as I said earlier, downgrades don’t bother me at all at this time of year onwards..if it was winter I would be upset if this is the new trend but it it isn’t..we are well into spring now with the clocks about to spring forward..

 

Yes, Karl, it makes a big difference if the two options are snow or summer sun, in winter it would be snow or mild rain!  I still think this Easter cold spell has something going for it, though.  I would follow the GFS rather than ECM for this spell, it is the only scenario it outperforms ECM for the UK...

[LRD]

And ends with a Southerly!

Might be an outlier or a blip but if ECM's right this evening then there'll be hardly any cold spell at all. Especially for England.

[Guest]

8 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

We can't brush off that day or 2 of warmth your correct..but likewise we can't brush off a screaming Ntly with possible -10c uppers a few days later! I hope you have your factor 10 ready for that warm and sunny day,but then your factor 20 ready for the freeze up withthe sun reflecting off the snow a few days later!! Bit like a skiing Holiday this

Amazing sypnotics guys just like the good old days.

These are not Synoptics like the good old days, GFS is predicting a world pressure record by 12-17mb over Greenland. That is not normal. 

[Scorcher]

The ECM may be wrong but it certainly offers hope for those of us who desperately want this cold spell to disappear.

Although some are convinced, I don't think a direct hit is nailed on at all yet.

[Matt Jones]

What amazes me is how we are simply unable to pull off a potent straight northerly, either goes one way or the other. Suppose we are only a small target but you'd have thought it would hit occasionally. Fair enough it's not a done deal either way but it does become rather predictable.

Edited March 27, 2021 by Matt Jones

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Matt Jones said:

What amazes me is how we are simply unable to pull off a potent straight northerly, either goes one way or the other. Suppose we are only a small target but you'd have thought it would hit occasionally. Fair enough it's not a done deal either way but it does become rather predictable.

I thought it was 'nailed on'!?

[LRD]

7 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

What amazes me is how we are simply unable to pull off a potent straight northerly, either goes one way or the other. Suppose we are only a small target but you'd have thought it would hit occasionally. Fair enough it's not a done deal either way but it does become rather predictable.

Well, it might still give us a direct hit yet. This ain't resolved one way or the other

However, if that ECM verifies (which it won't 100% of course) we could be looking at warm, unstable, thundery weather by day 9 or 10. Bring it on!

[Matt Jones]

5 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I thought it was 'nailed on'!?

I think I only look at meteociel each day to see the nails fall.

[damianslaw]

Watching the models for a long time and GFS in my view tends to outperform ECM when it comes to developments over Greenland.. 

[LRD]

8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Watching the models for a long time and GFS in my view tends to outperform ECM when it comes to developments over Greenland.. 

I see this said/written a lot but I'm not so sure

And even if the GFS is correct, like i said in an earlier post, without the presence of -10 uppers in England is it really going to get that cold and wintry anyway? Scotland and NI could do "well"* of course (*if cold weather with rain, hail, sleet and some snow is your thing in April)

Edited March 27, 2021 by LRD

[Methuselah]

But convection is far deeper now, than it ever is in January, so downdraughts can bring snow down to far lower levels, than what the T850s might suggest... Okay, it's all gone within 5-minutes, but who's complaining?

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

But convection is far deeper now, than it ever is in January, so downdraughts can bring snow down to far lower levels, than what the T850s might suggest... Okay, it's all gone within 5-minutes, but who's complaining?

Well, exactly. Ok, so without -10 uppers there might still be snow in the showers but it'll be a case of temps dropping in showers - raising the possibility of wintryness - but then rising again when they clear. So not that wintry really aside from some nuisance-value cold nights. Seems lose-lose for both coldies and warmies but what do I know!

With MetO and ECM showing different solutions this might be a moot debate of course!

 

[Frosty.]

To my untrained ? ? tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean seems a bit further east than the operational at the end?..meh, don’t care...just kidding coldies!

at least it’s a hot topic! ..

Edited March 27, 2021 by Jon Snow

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, LRD said:

I see this said/written a lot but I'm not so sure

And even if the GFS is correct, like i said in an earlier post, without the presence of -10 uppers in England is it really going to get that cold and wintry anyway? Scotland and NI could do "well"* of course (*if cold weather with rain, hail, sleet and some snow is your thing in April)

Its just an observation based on past viewing, but yes the GFS can overdo heights over Greenland on occasion..

In terms of wintry precipitation it isn't just uppers that determine where snow falls, lots of other factors including dewpoints, lapse rates, intensity of precipitation - the heavier the more conducive to snowfall, time of day, strength of wind, whether there are any trough features.... admittedly by April uppers need to be appreciably lower than in January lets say, but April snowfalls are very surprising affairs - the added convective activity being a key factor. 

[stodge]

Evening all

Have to say the weather in the area between Greenland and Svalbard at T+192 might be "interesting". That's a 10m wind speed of 90-100 Km/hr - a constant wind speed of 55-60 mph, gusts to who knows what? That's a N'ly wind so anyone want to hazard a guess at the windchill - 850s are -24. 

So that's a -24c 850 and a steady windspeed of 60 mph, I'll leave someone to work that out.

Still looks very interesting for early April. One or two looking at the 12Z ECM run and calling it game over - to be fair, southern and eastern Britain wouldn't see much but that's a solid long fetch NNE'ly over western parts and the traditional eastwards correction so going to work out well for cold fans.

GFS OP keeps the cold going well into next month with a series of troughs forming close to the British isles - Control takes the HP further south more quickly and then send sit back over the British isles.

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by stodge

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240, the key timeframe!

Cluster 1 is essentially the ECM op, cluster 2 is the UK significant cold spell, and cluster 3 is a surprise move to warm and settled.  I’d weight cluster 1 down a bit, and 2 up a bit, given what we’ve seen from GFS, and noting that model performs better re proper Greenland highs, to maybe put the cluster 2 scenario as slight favourite.  Where’s your money?