Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Derecho]

1105MB Greenland high on that GFS 12z op between T180-T186. Fair to say that would be a new record if it came off  

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

1105MB Greenland high on that GFS 12z op between T180-T186. Fair to say that would be a new record if it came off  

You got a chart for that, by any chance?  Meteociel has 1070 at T180, but looking at it, it may be the highest contour they plot?

[Frigid]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You got a chart for that, by any chance?  Meteociel has 1070 at T180, but looking at it, it may be the highest contour they plot?

1090mb showing up here. Idk the record, but I'm sure that's very close to it

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

1105MB Greenland high on that GFS 12z op between T180-T186. Fair to say that would be a new record if it came off  

I'm crushed!

[Derecho]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You got a chart for that, by any chance?  Meteociel has 1070 at T180, but looking at it, it may be the highest contour they plot?

On wetterzentrale if you look very closely, you can see it slightly more clearly on the above chart at T180, with a further increase to around 1105mb at T186.

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, Frigid said:

1090mb showing up here. Idk the record, but I'm sure that's very close to it

The chart above reminds me of 16 Dec 10 when a chunk of the PV was pulled down over us... alas it's early April, but quite extreme all the same.

[Frigid]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

The chart above reminds me of 16 Dec 10 when a chunk of the PV was pulled down over us... alas it's early April, but quite extreme all the same.

They do look very similar indeed. Makes me wonder what it would've been like if we got this cold spell in January. Historic I'd say. Either way, I can't remember ever seeing synoptics like this in April. One to remember!

     

[Cambrian]

That’s more than 100mb difference over less than a thousand miles between central Greenland and the low off Svalbard. That’ll knock him off his board!

 

 

 

[Man With Beard]

Remarkable contrasts possible in the coming 10 days. Sky news suggesting the March temperature record could go early in the week (I don't think so, 23-24C is what I expect). Then, within days, snow chances for all, and potentially as brutal as you can get for an April cold spell. I wonder what the record minima is for April? 

[Timmytour]

The remarkable thing - if we do end getting an Easter freeze - will be the consistency of the modelling.... bringing it home from the far reaches of FI.

Something that would never happen in winter!

 

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Lowest daily maximum temperature -1.1C, Durham, 01/04/1917. 
Macclesfield also with the same figure on the same date!

Lowest daily minimum temperature -15.4C, Eskadalemuir, 02/04/1917.

Must have been an exciting two days for all the cold weather enthusiasts/lovers back then! 

Same synoptics as shown above delivered that cold spell. Came on the back of a very cold winter.

[stodge]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Same synoptics as shown above delivered that cold spell. Came on the back of a very cold winter.

Which followed a very mild winter - I believe the winter of 1915-16 was one of the mildest of the 20th century.

[minus10]

27 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

That’s more than 100mb difference over less than a thousand miles between central Greenland and the low off Svalbard. That’ll knock him off his board!

175.51 kB · 0 downloads

 

 

 

 

I cant remember ever in my life seeing such high pressure signalled for greenland as with gfs12z. 1090mb +

The artic monster is heading our way...

What is going on ?

Its enough to make you scream....

 

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by minus10

[I remember Atlantic 252]

21 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

The remarkable thing - if we do end getting an Easter freeze - will be the consistency of the modelling.... bringing it home from the far reaches of FI.

Something that would never happen in winter!

 

Aye but northerlies/E'lys have much more chance of coming off now than Dec to Feb with raging jet/PV

[Mike Poole]

What strikes me about this Easter cold spell, is how consistently it is appearing on the models at +T240.  It has been clearly signalled at that range for a couple of days now on the ECM clusters.  

Contrast with when this sort of thing shows up in January or February, it is never as consistent (unless following a favourable SSW) is it?  And of course, they don’t usually happen anyway.  Maybe that’s the lesson, but we need to wait a week to see if this one is for real.  

Snow is possible in April, just needs to be a direct hit of the cold air, this one looking better for those in the north and Scotland, of course, but it could affect the whole country.

In the meantime, I look forward to the first feeling of summer warmth on Tuesday/Wednesday:

Edited March 27, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Man With Beard]

21 minutes ago, minus10 said:

 

I cant remember ever in my life seeing such high pressure signalled for greenland as with gfs12z. 1090mb +

The artic monster is heading our way...

What is going on ?

Its enough to make you scream....

 

 

No, never seen this. Can we break 1100mb??

[Chesil View]

58 minutes ago, Frigid said:

They do look very similar indeed. Makes me wonder what it would've been like if we got this cold spell in January. Historic I'd say. Either way, I can't remember ever seeing synoptics like this in April. One to remember!

     

This is starting to get a feel of the April 1981’s about it.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

This is starting to get a feel of the April 1981’s about it.

It hasn't even started, yet?

[Mike Poole]

29 minutes ago, minus10 said:

 

I cant remember ever in my life seeing such high pressure signalled for greenland as with gfs12z. 1090mb +

The artic monster is heading our way...

What is going on ?

Its enough to make you scream....

 

 

The high pressures modelled over Greenland in this situation are never accurate, because of the altitude of Greenland.  The models are attempting to estimate sea level pressure when the land/ice mass is much much higher than that.

However, these are the highest anomalous pressures I’ve seen modelled, to be sure.  

[LRD]

Am I missing something here? The 850s don't get near -10 in England do they? Christ we couldn't even get snow of an E'ly in January with -5 or -6 uppers!

It's certainly going to get chilly but is it going to get that cold? Happy to stand corrected (said the man with the orthopaedic shoes) if someone wants to put me right

MetO doesn't look all THAT special. Not pleasant but I'm not sure there'll be polar bears in Bedfordshire on the back of this!

Edited March 27, 2021 by LRD

[Snowy L]

12 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

It hasn't even started, yet?

Still time for a west based nao to pop up and send this 6C and sleet shower fest to the North Atlantic instead of here?

[Guest]

Erm GFS predicting 1100mb pressure over Greenland on the 04/04, that would be a world record by 12mb. 

[Penrith Snow]

51 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Same synoptics as shown above delivered that cold spell. Came on the back of a very cold winter.

Penrith holds one England/Wales temperature record with a minimum of -15.0c on 2nd April 1917, its the towns claim to fame!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144, the cold is on its way:

GFS same time for comparison:

GFS building the heights into Greenland a little more, remember GFS models the tip of Greenland better than the others, as we saw earlier in winter. 

Edited March 27, 2021 by Mike Poole

[LRD]

Just now, Snowy L said:

Still time for a west based nao to pop up and send this 6C and sleet shower fest to the North Atlantic instead of here?

Certainly a danger of that but it's not the favourite. But it won't be just a sleet shower fest. There'll no doubt be 20 minutes of hail somewhere too!