Model output discussion 10/02/21

[damianslaw]

Kicked this thread into a bit of action, can understand it being quiet over recent days, but the models are showing quite a bit of variety rest if month and into April, so couldn't understand why no comment.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean suggests high pressure / ridging for Easter!...IF it does become anticyclonic, the position / orientation of the high would be a huge factor in determining the surface conditions..cloud cover, sunshine, wind direction, temperatures etc...I would say on balance, it’s more likely to be fairly settled during Easter...just my opinion!...as there’s still quite a lot of uncertainty from the pros..fingers anyway, I’m sure most on here, and elsewhere would rather have a fine Easter with light winds and sunny spells than wet & windy...wouldn’t they?   

 

[Frigid]

16 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Kicked this thread into a bit of action, can understand it being quiet over recent days, but the models are showing quite a bit of variety rest if month and into April, so couldn't understand why no comment.

the last time we had a proper cold Easter period was in 2013. Easter 2019 and 2020 were both pretty good i'd say, so I wouldn't mind a cool Easter this time around. Chart's do look very interesting, maybe a 2008 repeat 

Edited March 23, 2021 by Frigid

[ICE COLD]

The GEM 12z is a mad start to the Easter weekend . 

 

The ECM day 10 mean is looking strikingly similar to the Gem day 10 . 

Edited March 23, 2021 by ICE COLD

[damianslaw]

GFS 18z same theme to an extent to 12z high pressure moving in next week, but instead of keeping it to our west, it moves it through the UK, but the eventual path is the same, retrogression to the NW and a arctic northerly thereafter, a sustained one as well..

[Howie]

Please no, I really need warmth and sun right now, done with the cold

[Daniel*]

There’s definitely been a shift to a cool opening week to April even warmth late March looking more subdued. This March has been extremely average, and boring let’s hope April is more varied and interesting it could well be we all knew a repeat of last spring was very unlikely. 

[Guest]

Absolute horror show through Easter and typical weather now we can met people outside. GFS 00z ensemble suite dreadful from the middle of next week onwards really very below average and one of the coldest Easters in years on the cards with temps struggling to get past mid single digits and snow showers almost down to the south coast. Given cold SSTs and outlooks like this I don’t fancy the chance of any big spring warm up any time soon unfortunately. 

[Frosty.]

Morning all,

just looking at the GEFS 0z mean for Easter ...the high is centred further west with lower heights to the NE / E...so the chances of a cold Northerly have increased, but with much more convective influence there would be some thundery wintry showers and some amazing cloud formations!..for any weather enthusiast...it would be rather exciting? ...white Easter anyone?  

[Griff]

8 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

The GEM 12z is a mad start to the Easter weekend . 

 

The ECM day 10 mean is looking strikingly similar to the Gem day 10 . 

Cue the obligatory chorus of "it's more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas"! 

Interesting synoptics, and always a possibility at this time of year

[Jordan S]

Morning..

Much colder upper air temperatures moving southeast across the country on friday.. frequent showers for the north and west, there is the small chance of isolated thunderstorms, if these do occur they will probably most likely be for northern Ireland and Scotland..  the showers will probably fall as sleet and snow to some lower levels of Scotland at times, showers may also fall as sleet and snow on high ground of northern England and northern Ireland too.. the chance of hail in a few of these.

Upper air temperatures..

Likely to be wetter than initially thought for southern parts of England, this largely from a weather front set to move through England and Wales during friday which may be squally, a short period of heavy rain which may give 5-10mm in 2-3 hours in a few places with strong gusty winds, developments along this front probably slowing the clearance until friday evening for eastern England.

Icon..

Still likely becoming generally drier for southern England during the weekend although with the exception of some possible patchy rain most likely on sunday from a frontal system moving west to east in northern areas with snow on higher ground of Scotland in this and from showers also very windy in the north too.

Overview..

Temperatures..

Saturday..

Sunday..

First half of next week remaining unsettled in the north, temperatures likely to rise further for southern parts of England and Wales possibly central areas too, 14-16c likely for some parts of eastern and southeastern England. Although less likely.. temperatures may be higher than this with a chance of 17-19c.

Monday..

Tuesday..

Later on next week wednesday-friday there is the chance of unsettled weather returning south to all again with a chance of wintry weather for some and low pressure near or over the country... Although it's probably more likely to become drier for most with colder weather moving south after tuesday or wednesday with higher pressure close by or over the uk. Northerly winds may feature for a time during this transition.. then perhaps turning more unsettled by next weekend but that's far out.

Edited March 24, 2021 by jordan smith

[Scorcher]

Is anyone actually happy about the prospect of this northerly? I don't think I've ever wanted warm sunshine more in my life than right now.

Truly depressing to see the output this morning.

I'm expecting it to be mostly dull too as well as cold.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Is anyone actually happy about the prospect of this northerly? I don't think I've ever wanted warm sunshine more in my life than right now.

Truly depressing to see the output this morning.

I'm expecting it to be mostly dull too as well as cold.

It’s crazy, I can’t think of anything worse in a normal year let alone after not being able to see people for nearly 4months in places, utter madness but most weather nuts are a bit loopy and will take their preferred whenever it comes along. I’d happily have 30c on Xmas day for instance... 

[ANYWEATHER]

April snow showers......!

[Northernlights]

8 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

April snow showers......!

I for one am very pleased to see this as its very seasonal for up here in spring and seems to support my theory that lack of pollution has allowed us to return to more defined seasons in the last 12 months.If true to form heat will arrive about the 20th of April along with the swallows and swifts.

I remember going through to Aberdeen in mid April in the early sixties on the bus along with my mother and sister to see Sound of Music at cinema in Holburn Street. We  came out of cinema at about 4.00pm to a heavy powdery snow shower. On the way back we sat in back of bus and I was able to observe some great towering  cloudscapes highlighted in pink as sun began to  set. They could be seen all the way home to the east coming on to the Buchan coast,I think they were traditionaly known as Buchan Boaters or spring snow showers on a north wind.  I only went because I knew I would see falling snow!!!!!  21c arrived the follwing week.

If my thoughts are right a traditional summer beckons with three fine days and a thunderstorm so something for everyone

[mb018538]

As a few others have stated, we are starting to see some guidance and patterns emerging for next week.

Looks like being very mild to start the week, perhaps up to Wednesday in places. By Saturday though...





Big -NAO pattern setting up, with mid Atlantic/Greenland blocking very possible....and a bitter Arctic northerly potentially setting in. The old adage about it being more likely to snow at Easter than at Xmas may be coming true again soon. Very cold maxima in low single figures, with high snow potential.

[minus10]

56 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

I for one am very pleased to see this as its very seasonal for up here in spring and seems to support my theory that lack of pollution has allowed us to return to more defined seasons in the last 12 months.If true to form heat will arrive about the 20th of April along with the swallows and swifts.

I remember going through to Aberdeen in mid April in the early sixties on the bus along with my mother and sister to see Sound of Music at cinema in Holburn Street. We  came out of cinema at about 4.00pm to a heavy powdery snow shower. On the way back we sat in back of bus and I was able to observe some great towering  cloudscapes highlighted in pink as sun began to  set. They could be seen all the way home to the east coming on to the Buchan coast,I think they were traditionaly known as Buchan Boaters or spring snow showers on a north wind.  I only went because I knew I would see falling snow!!!!!  21c arrived the follwing week.

If my thoughts are right a traditional summer beckons with three fine days and a thunderstorm so something for everyone

Yes it does seem that the weather has been a bit more seasonal down here lately. Overall a colder winter and in particular i have noticed the delayed appearance of many of the spring flowers and those that are out staying out for longer in the cooler conditions. As a gardener i do not relish the thought of further frosts at this time of year however the onset of northerlies often mean you have crisp clearner air with good visibility and sunshine between  the showers (Must be particularly noticeable in scotland) . I often remember as a child in 60/70 s experiencing 'wintry' showers in April/May. Almost like chunks of ice falling from the sky!. Anyhow some warm weather to look forward to first hopefully before the onset of the colder air if it arrives. All in all very springlike....

[PiscesStar]

Snowy Easter Anyone?! 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Snowfish2 said:

Snowy Easter Anyone?! 

And, if we're extremely 'fortunate', even a slim possibility of some slush, underfoot! No, I think I'll give that a miss... BTW, when is the Easter weekend, anyway!

[Guest]

Let’s just hope there’s no lingering effects into May and early summer. With SST’s much lower along the south coast than in recent years I’m already concerned we’ll be shrouded in fog through late spring and early summer assuming warmer spells start to gather speed, we’ve been fortunate to have totally missed those horrid foggy days during the past 3-5years. 

[Timmytour]

I don't care about Easter, I've got my fingers crossed for it being dry and warm in the gardens of English pubs on 12th April!

[Scorcher]

23 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Let’s just hope there’s no lingering effects into May and early summer. With SST’s much lower along the south coast than in recent years I’m already concerned we’ll be shrouded in fog through late spring and early summer assuming warmer spells start to gather speed, we’ve been fortunate to have totally missed those horrid foggy days during the past 3-5years. 

Now this doesn't concern me. Things can flip very quickly and SSTs respond quickly. Just look at 2018 as a case in point. The SSTs had very little impact on that mid April hot spell after a cold spring up to that point.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 hours ago, Griff said:

Cue the obligatory chorus of "it's more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas"! 

Interesting synoptics, and always a possibility at this time of year

We should still be on furlough mate! I hope you have told the Authorities your out of Retirement

You know what guys I said a few weeks back theres a chance of another blast of Winter before all is said and done! I wasn't expecting it to be this late,but better late than never! Oh those poor daffodils! Never mind I can't stand em anyway

Look at the the GFS 6Z run.. if it was December this place would be in melt down...ohh and only just heard about Meteociel when I visited the site just now! Get well soon  lads...excellent site for sure! 

This year my crew you may be egg hunting in the snow,so it should be easier to find them due to footprints in the snow! 

Hope your all well...Happy hunting.

Edited March 24, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[MildCarlilse]

4 hours ago, Northernlights said:

I for one am very pleased to see this as its very seasonal for up here in spring and seems to support my theory that lack of pollution has allowed us to return to more defined seasons in the last 12 months.If true to form heat will arrive about the 20th of April along with the swallows and swifts.

I remember going through to Aberdeen in mid April in the early sixties on the bus along with my mother and sister to see Sound of Music at cinema in Holburn Street. We  came out of cinema at about 4.00pm to a heavy powdery snow shower. On the way back we sat in back of bus and I was able to observe some great towering  cloudscapes highlighted in pink as sun began to  set. They could be seen all the way home to the east coming on to the Buchan coast,I think they were traditionaly known as Buchan Boaters or spring snow showers on a north wind.  I only went because I knew I would see falling snow!!!!!  21c arrived the follwing week.

If my thoughts are right a traditional summer beckons with three fine days and a thunderstorm so something for everyone

A ten day chart is a ten day chart for awe that in that.

[mushymanrob]

These charts dont support the colder options some runs are suggesting, although a brief blast of cold is possible?... it looks to me like the GFS 06z is closer to the outcome at least over Easter.