Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

Recommended Posts

11 hours ago, Don said:

Depends on what type of summer you are wishing for! 

Stupidly hot and sunny with occasional storms especially as we won’t be allowed to go find the sun in any tiger countries. 

Has to be said though we are currently in a very benign spell. Really very little to comment on model wise, possibly the least since early last October. Models appear to flip flopping between northerly outbreaks and warmer spells for the Easter period. Could do with some consistency and really not an outcome that delivers cold....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

0BCC06F3-0F4F-4B21-8EED-9BC39FD42855.thumb.jpeg.9cc641fa5c3c0ae4eb1f91c46adcc1ab.jpegWinter is coming guys..in Avril..according too the GEFS pert 22 ...0z!!!!!!!!!!

5FB938A0-DAFE-423B-974F-4949ADFA55CF.thumb.png.382291fd44319daef5aa9f1d5aad83ee.png307282AF-B437-41C0-BAC7-9D22FC67D20F.thumb.png.01b32e8340e2af4a72503e3781439621.png ❄️ 

You, Karl, are a VERY naughty boy!  

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
17 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

You, Karl, are a VERY naughty boy!  

Indeed, very naughty..I was going to post the ECM 0z T+144 chart showing 520 dam thicknesses..but then I thought why bother..nobody cares..MEH!..lol

Anyway, frivolity aside, Easter may perk up, at least across southern u k following a more unsettled second half to the week ahead! ☀️ 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
1 hour ago, Sky Full said:

You, Karl, are a VERY naughty boy!  

And may it continue.....

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Change in fortunes on the cards, the last week has brought the sunniest and quite unusually the mildest conditions for the northern part of the UK, with southern and especially SE parts seeing the coolest and cloudiest weather. 

Reason for the change, high pressure sinking southwards allowing the atlantic back in, but it will be a gradual affair, with southern parts holding onto a fair bit of dry bright weather well into the week, whereas further north and more north west, much duller and damper conditions will move in. Mid week will see a more concerted atlantic push bringing more general rain to all, but nothing significant, especially in the SE. End of the week seeing a change to chilly showery conditions in a cold flow with polar origins, wintry showers over higher ground.

Currently looks a shortlived cooler blast with heights once again ridging in from the SW, to bring a possible quiet mild end to the month.

At least the new week will bring some weather to talk about, the last 7 days have been exceptionally quiet on the weather front.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
5 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I take the view that a signs of a reasonable summer can be detected in Spring.  Not from an individual GFS // chart in FI (of course).  But a general signal for a more northerly track of the jet stream and an increased tendency for ridging from the Azores can provide a clue, particularly if it is backed up by what the long range models are saying (GloSea5 suggesting a signal for a warmer and dryer summer at the moment).  SSTs are also relevant - for a hot summer we would like to see self reinforcing signals for ridging from the Azores, which will warm the sea to our SW.  

It is too early to have any confidence at the moment this year, so I’m just commenting on signals as I see them.  

2018 was a classic example of a pattern being set in spring which lasted through to July.

2018 was a freak, one of those summers that happen every 25 years or so. Of course, summers like that may get more common with climate change, but you get my drift. 
 

For every 2018 you get 2 or 3 2007s i.e hot spring month then a wet or mixed summer. 
 

I think a warm, potentially humid and thundery summer is on the way.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

Looking at the 12z gfs op and there are approx six changes between sw and nw winds with associated variations in temp before we end up where we started !

image.thumb.png.7aa7a784cbffd179b72eb6751e7be063.png

HP to the west ......again...

Edited by minus10
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

2018 was a freak, one of those summers that happen every 25 years or so. Of course, summers like that may get more common with climate change, but you get my drift. 
 

For every 2018 you get 2 or 3 2007s i.e hot spring month then a wet or mixed summer. 
 

I think a warm, potentially humid and thundery summer is on the way.

2018 wasn't the only hot summer in the last 25 years- 2003 and 2006 were also very much in that category. I think they will definitely be more common going forward. I'd say more once every 10 years rather than 25. Also exceptionally warm months are far more common in general these days than exceptionally cold ones.

April isn't a summer month but we've had multiple exceptionally warm Aprils in the last 20 years. Who'd have thought after the truly exceptional April 2007 that the record would be smashed again only 4 years later? Since then we've had several more that have made the top 10 of all time for warmth and sunshine.

 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

2018 wasn't the only hot summer in the last 25 years- 2003 and 2006 were also very much in that category. I think they will definitely be more common going forward. I'd say more once every 10 years rather than 25. Also exceptionally warm months are far more common in general these days than exceptionally cold ones.

April isn't a summer month but we've had multiple exceptionally warm Aprils in the last 20 years. Who'd have thought after the truly exceptional April 2007 that the record would be smashed again only 4 years later? Since then we've had several more that have made the top 10 of all time for warmth and sunshine.

 

 

It started warming in 1987. April that year was very warm and at the time, there hadn’t been a warmer one since 1961.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
1 hour ago, minus10 said:

After an unsettled and cool/cold dip on Friday the ecm12z takes us straight to summer within a couple of days...

 

Yes -- this is (kind of) supported by the GFS ensembes as well:

gfs-london-gb-515n-0e.thumb.png.7362e0610b40847541b938b00310990a.png

Let's hope it comes off!

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

Must be the closest run to getting 20c so far this year? ECM somewhat similar. We can hope! As others have said, reasonable in the East / South for the first half of the week, before turning a little cooler and more unsettled towards the weekend. Signs of at least a brief warm up / return to wider settled weather from Sunday onwards (just in time for meet ups in the garden!), at least according to the ECM and GFS 18z

ukmaxtemp.png

Edited by Mark Bayley
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

There does seem to be an increasing risk of first warm spell of year next week GFS 00z with warm southerlies... ECM this morning bit less enthusiastic compared to yesterday’s 12z but close models agreeing on a strong pressure rise in Central Europe, as we had seen in February instead hopefully a weakened Atlantic will mean warm air is not shoved east of U.K. maybe this pattern could also be of interest for storms fans I don’t usually associate April with much but get right set up and it could be interesting. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

00z GFS continues the theme of potential for some very mild/warm weather into parts of the UK, though mainly concentrated into the E/SE. Next Thursday showing 22/23c in the London area, though this will clearly change at 11 days away:

image.thumb.png.916d441d9dcbf74a11bb69b1bd658476.pngimage.thumb.png.4879ce3e71dce19555c49bddb293aa41.pngimage.thumb.png.645678e38fa2797b850158302a2c9101.pngimage.thumb.png.0090f0e99e3d570d4288c8eb4e1a4721.png

Wow!  And that’s not even 10 days away.....

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
16 minutes ago, Paul said:

The GFS gets updated to the V16 version today from the 12z onwards. 

More info here:
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn21-20_gfsv16.0_aac.pdf

Thanks for that Paul. A bit too technical for me but in summary am i right in thinking that this new version will be of a higher resolution and able to deal with more variables and scanning more layers of the atmosphere?  In practice resulting in an increase in accuracy?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
6 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Thanks for that Paul. A bit too technical for me but in summary am i right in thinking that this new version will be of a higher resolution and able to deal with more variables and scanning more layers of the atmosphere?  In practice resulting in an increase in accuracy?

Yes, it's got more vertical layers in there as part of the update, which should in theory improve accuracy. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

00z GFS continues the theme of potential for some very mild/warm weather into parts of the UK, though mainly concentrated into the E/SE. Next Thursday showing 22/23c in the London area, though this will clearly change at 11 days away:

image.thumb.png.916d441d9dcbf74a11bb69b1bd658476.pngimage.thumb.png.4879ce3e71dce19555c49bddb293aa41.pngimage.thumb.png.645678e38fa2797b850158302a2c9101.pngimage.thumb.png.0090f0e99e3d570d4288c8eb4e1a4721.png

It’s a bit of an outlier unfortunately , with more average conditions favoured , but fingers crossed the higher res op is picking the correct pattern! 

978B60BA-C67F-4F2F-9001-03EA2322F2CD.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
35 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s a bit of an outlier unfortunately , with more average conditions favoured , but fingers crossed the higher res op is picking the correct pattern! 

978B60BA-C67F-4F2F-9001-03EA2322F2CD.png

I probably should have pointed that out Tim....I try not to make a habit of posting massive outlier charts and trying and pass them off as representative or without a disclaimer. Slap on the wrist!  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but hate the cold
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

00z GFS continues the theme of potential for some very mild/warm weather into parts of the UK, though mainly concentrated into the E/SE. Next Thursday showing 22/23c in the London area, though this will clearly change at 11 days away:

image.thumb.png.916d441d9dcbf74a11bb69b1bd658476.pngimage.thumb.png.4879ce3e71dce19555c49bddb293aa41.pngimage.thumb.png.645678e38fa2797b850158302a2c9101.pngimage.thumb.png.0090f0e99e3d570d4288c8eb4e1a4721.png

Now these are the charts I start to get excited about 

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
22 hours ago, CreweCold said:

2018 was a freak, one of those summers that happen every 25 years or so. Of course, summers like that may get more common with climate change, but you get my drift. 
 

For every 2018 you get 2 or 3 2007s i.e hot spring month then a wet or mixed summer. 
 

 

Disagree..... 2018, 2013, 2006, 1996, 1976, were all cold in March , but went on to be the warmest of Julys according to the CET.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Disagree..... 2018, 2013, 2006, 1996, 1976, were all cold in March , but went on to be the warmest of Julys according to the CET.

April 2018 wasn't special for warmth either. I think people's views of that month are skewed by that remarkable hot spell mid-month. Other than that rather brief spell, it was mostly cool and had a cool final week.

May was a wonderful month but I recall it starting cool before warming up at the end of the first week. We barely looked back from then until the end of July- it was warm to hot almost all the way through.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...