Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Zak M]

I'm in love with this GFS parallel run!

      

- S/SW'rly airflow

- Temperatures ranging around the mid-teens widely

- Thunderstorms breaking out in the south and east.

[Frosty.]

A gentle reminder from the ECM 0z operational (if one were needed?)...that wintry weather can return, just when you think it’s safe to put the winter coat away for 8 months!...even colder air swinging down from the NW beyond day 10?  

Edited March 18, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

A gentle reminder from the ECM 0z operational (if one were needed?)...that wintry weather can return, just when you think it’s safe to put the winter coat away for 8 months!...cold air swinging down from the NW beyond day 10?  

It's the end of March though....even with those 850s a lot of areas make double figures. More of a glancing blow:


 

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It's the end of March though....even with those 850s a lot of areas make double figures. More of a glancing blow:


 

There’s a thing called wind-chill factor though which can make 10c feel like 3 or 4c!  

[Bradowl]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

It's the end of March though....even with those 850s a lot of areas make double figures. More of a glancing blow:


 

Temperatures might reach 8 9 10 degrees but when heavy showers come along it can fall to just above freezing in minutes. 

We had a similar set up to chart Jon shows above in May, 1975 I think year was, and we had frequent Snow showers on a WNW flow for days. Some of showers was Thundery too. 

[Tim Bland]

3 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

A gentle reminder from the ECM 0z operational (if one were needed?)...that wintry weather can return, just when you think it’s safe to put the winter coat away for 8 months!...even colder air swinging down from the NW beyond day 10?  

Winter coats are needed for 8 months of the year - Oct - May so it’s hardly worth putting them away in this country! Sick to death of this awful wet cold weather now! 

[minus10]

What is the GFS 12z playing at?

Its ok  , its only an outlier....

Edited March 18, 2021 by minus10

[Mike Poole]

30 minutes ago, minus10 said:

What is the GFS 12z playing at?

Its ok  , its only an outlier....

Vile run on the GFS // too, T192, T384:

Interested to see the ECM clusters tonight, some suggestion that the warmer charts of the last couple of run suites may be about to be eclipsed by a more Atlantic signal.   

Edited March 18, 2021 by Mike Poole

[damianslaw]

In the short term, more of the same, cloudy for many but some favoured spots will see some sunshine, but less than recently. Generally mild away from SE. Into the new week, signs of the Atlantic moving in gradually with a westerly flow, so likely to turn more unsettled for the north and west, drier further to the south and east.

 

 

[Tim Bland]

25 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

In the short term, more of the same, cloudy for many but some favoured spots will see some sunshine, but less than recently. Generally mild away from SE. Into the new week, signs of the Atlantic moving in gradually with a westerly flow, so likely to turn more unsettled for the north and west, drier further to the south and east.

 

 

Nothing but rain all week here and temps around 8c so can’t see “less sunshine” than recently. Can you have less than zero

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Nothing but rain all week here and temps around 8c so can’t see “less sunshine” than recently. Can you have less than zero

Yes we are seeing a role reversal of usual outcome, sunniest in north and west, cloudiness in south and east. Quite common in Spring but less so rest of the year. A flow off the N Sea not good for SE quarter. Next week should see a shift with an Atlantic flow better conditions further south and east, reverting back to type.

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

The GFS and // evolution seems to be cluster 3, the minority cluster.  The main two build high heights to our east and a warm up without the Atlantic making too many inroads.  

[rwtwm]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters T192-T240:

The GFS and // evolution seems to be cluster 3, the minority cluster.  The main two build high heights to our east and a warm up without the Atlantic making too many inroads.  

Clusters 1&2 look potentially warm and wet to me. I think the 6z GFS showed this too. Atlantic low spewing fronts in a generally southerly flow.

[Daniel*]

Morning, bit of a change in forecast it seems next week evolving in less high pressure dominated environment with westerlies extending to all areas later in week, showery conditions in N/W. Maybe this will be a March without spring warmth in SE, still yet to reach 15C in London it’s usually a given in March but unsure it’s going to happen.

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Morning, bit of a change in forecast it seems next week evolving in less high pressure dominated environment with westerlies extending to all areas later in week, showery conditions in N/W. Maybe this will be a March without spring warmth in SE, still yet to reach 15C in London it’s usually a given in March but unsure it’s going to happen.

Ppn totals back this up - with your traditional NW/SE bias taking hold:



Not much in the E/SE corner, pretty wet in the NW.

[minus10]

14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Ppn totals back this up - with your traditional NW/SE bias taking hold:



Not much in the E/SE corner, pretty wet in the NW.

Thats good after this week which was far wetter here than i thought it was going to be. Hopefully today will be dry. 

Latest ecm has a dryer and hopefully warmer picture , at least for first half of next week..

Edited March 19, 2021 by minus10

[Neilsouth]

Is it still going to be windy tomorrow in eastern areas down to the south east? Sick of this endless windy weather! Seems it has gone on since last year

[Man With Beard]

Hello spring?

 

[Jordan S]

Evening

For most it's been settled and mostly dry the last few days ofcourse but a change to unsettled weather by wednesday next week.

The first half of next week will be dry for most especially the south but it will be breezier in the north as high pressure moves south allowing westerly winds which will be slightly milder back in to southern parts..

then occasional bands of rain from wednesday next week mostly in the north, rainfall totals quite low though generally and in some parts of the south very little is likely. Behind any frontal systems, showers mainly in the north but sunshine too, it's also likely to become cold enough for snow on higher ground of Scotland at times later in the week most likely between thursday and saturday, sleet and snow may fall on high ground of northern Ireland and northern England too at times though less chance of this..

Generally windy aswell mainly in northern areas, much sunnier than recently in parts of the south. Quite likely temperatures rise more in the south next weekend with settled and dry weather possibly returning though probably remaining unsettled in the north and with much colder temperatures moving into the north atlantic then the chance of faster developing low pressure systems which will likely move in a northeasterly direction  just to the northwest of the uk so the possibility of very windy conditions most likely for Scotland. 

Edited March 19, 2021 by jordan smith

[minus10]

So nice to have a dry day all day after the wet days here in the south east. Was able to work all day outside. Looks like although it will turn more unsettled next week high pressure never far away and warm up being guggested later in the period.

Time for a beer i think.....

[Mike Poole]

Great run from the GFS // 12z, settled throughout and potential for warmth, here T192, T300, T384:

Getting towards the time of year we need to take note of the jet stream, T384, this will do nicely if it is the direction of travel:

Lot of water to pass under the bridge before we can make predictions about summer, but for now, this is fine...

[Tim Bland]

Good agreement for a warm up week 2..

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z clusters, 5 on offer for the T192-T240 timeframe:

First two a fair Atlantic component, although limited effect on southern UK, other three blocked with high UK or Scandi.  T264-T360:

The first one mobile weather.  The other two high pressure continuing to affect the UK.  Better outlook than yesterdays 12z charts I think.

[Mike Poole]

GFS // 18z also showing that high pressure ridge from the Azores that might just reload, as I said earlier it is a while before summer, but a pattern that is nice to have T306:

Waaay out of the reliable of course, but interesting to see...

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS // 18z also showing that high pressure ridge from the Azores that might just reload, as I said earlier it is a while before summer, but a pattern that is nice to have T306:

Waaay out of the reliable of course, but interesting to see...

Just in time for the long easter weekend, we struck lucky last year.. indeed had a number of excellent easter periods in recent years. There are similarities with this time last year, the weather broke mid March and we had a long protracted dry period thereafter. Although next week will bring unsettled conditions to the north and west as the week wears on, but the theme of the year so far has been a quiet atlantic.