Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Scorcher]

That's an improvement from the GFS 06Z- hopefully these corrections continue. I seem to recall last March we had a similar situation- the models were actually showing potential cool/cold conditions around mid-month before a sudden switch to much milder conditions.

Fingers crossed for further progression of the high eastwards to cut off any colder air.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GFS / GEFS 6z there’s very strong support for high pressure to become the dominant feature next week, the only question I can see is exactly where the anticyclone will drop anchor which will determine how it will feel at the surface but I think it’s a good bet that the high will intensify slap bang over the u k...so, next week could become very pleasant with light winds and plenty of increasingly strong early spring sunshine...a massive change compared to this weeks unsettled / disturbed conditions!  

PS...Sad news about the Major Fire in Strasbourg!

[Singularity]

 

The trend of the day from GFS is toward the Azores High being separate from the surface ridge over Scandinavia.

 

Comparing with the 00z, the jet stream charts show the change clearly - from a massive sausage (cue the memes) to a pair of individual anticyclonic circulations.

So, we have less of a cutback of the polar jet, with mild maritime air taking control rather than cold continental.

 

Unfortunately, the 12z has then decided that we should have no high at all (albeit probably only briefly):

This interruption is so much against the general consensus for high pressure to remain across the UK that it has to be viewed with some scepticism - but it's an undeniable risk if the Azores High remains separate from the Scandinavian one. 

[Frosty.]

There’s plenty of ensemble support from the GEFS 12z for high pressure to build in strongly next week and to intensify over the u k...there’s a few less settled runs but despite that, on balance I think at least Central & Southern Britain is going to become very settled next week...and we certainly can’t rule out a nationwide settled spell!...compared to this week, next week should see a very marked improvement, especially further south. ️ 

 

Edited March 10, 2021 by Jon Snow

[minus10]

Settled yes with high pressure but not particularly warm on the latest ecm out to 240. Orientation of HP still in doubt it seems....

[Frosty.]

This is probably the last post from me today..got my trumpet ready  

Anyway, moving swiftly on...the ECM 12z operational certainly settles down next week as high pressure builds in strongly, however, there is some cold air pushing south just ahead of the high so I would expect there would be some night frosts where skies clear but in any decent sunshine it would feel pleasant as the winds fall light...would be a BIG improvement on this week for sure! ...sadly I have a problem uploading the charts so you will have to take my word for it.

Edit...here they are

 

Not in the correct order..patience guys, I’m new to all this..

 

 

Edited March 10, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Man With Beard]

Clusters still reluctant to end winter - plenty of runs looking for a high to the NW - a slight shift SE though and the sun would start to feel a little warmer, though 

 

 

[legritter]

Evening Gang, i am about reading all of your posts , been a bit under the weather lately but now feeling much better ,I'm even well enough to get the Sausages out ,but no Baps so plain old bread butter with brown  sauce .On with the models and no real sign of cold or Snow ,but i can feel it in my bones that we may get a cold last third of March, I've given up crispy belly of pork as too many calories ,thats great with Branson pickle ,cheers gang STellas all round .

[minus10]

Still mainly anticyclonic from 18z gfs however noticeable that the cold air to the NE over central Europe/Scandinaviour more or less remains in place from 17th or so to the end of the run when it starts to push back west. No sign of any real warmth yet over the uk from this run...

[NewEra21]

Winter isn't giving up just yet, nothing overly mild on the 00z 850s wise

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 0z there’s actually some wintry potential in the mid / longer term, it wouldn’t take much tinkering to unlock something much colder!...in general terms there’s been a slight adjustment to next weeks anticyclone, it’s centred a little further west which could allow colder air to spill down its eastern flank...yesterday I was quite bullish about the high becoming centred slap bang over the British isles but I’m not so sure now, and this would significantly impact how it would feel at the surface?..and as I said, looking at the bigger NH picture, there is scope for some proper cold from the east / north during the next few weeks..as things stand following the 0z runs! ...speaking of wintry potential, there’s some during the next few days with showers turning more to sleet and even snow giving surprise snow to some locations, early Saturday for example?..have a great day.

Edited March 11, 2021 by Jon Snow

[minus10]

Yes the uninspiring theme continues if you want warmer weather. The gfs 0z run colder than ecm, even at 240 hrs . Later in the run it has colder air amassing to the NNW again. Seems no easy route to warm on this run whereas with the ecm seems more favourable to turn milder after 240hrs. Various options still on the table i think. Windy here in wgc this morning but not as windy as i thought it was going to be......

 

 

[mb018538]

Morning runs further solidifying the thoughts of the high being more west based - with cooler air being circulated around the eastern flank and back over parts of the UK. Could be a bit cool and disappointing. 

[Irishman in Yorkshire]

Pretty normal and (thankfully) average model watching for early Spring. It shouldn’t be warm this early in the year. Good to be experiencing average climatic conditions. A temperate, oceanic climate is what we live under, and in early Spring that means cool, variable conditions with a strengthening sun to occasionally make it feel warmer. Weather as it should be...and glad of it. 

[mb018538]

Next week contrasts in charts:
Parts of the W/SW very pleasant on Tuesday with temps up to 12-14c....parts of the east stuck in single figures under cooler air.



Also potential for it to turn colder more widely later in the week as a biting Easterly sets in, with 850s down close to -10 (though this is an extreme outcome) Temperatures in this instance stuck down at 5/6c :

[johnholmes]

Oh joy back to winds off the North Sea by the look of model outputs. Gawd do I hate them; often dull/overcast and feeling b cold. Yuk.

And confirmed by all 3 too mb anomaly charts, including the 8-14, can't be bothered to show them but you all know where they are-sorry

 

Edited March 11, 2021 by johnholmes

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS 6z is a stonker.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Oh joy back to winds off the North Sea by the look of model outputs. Gawd do I hate them; often dull/overcast and feeling b cold. Yuk.

 

Even with those same uppers but in December?

[minus10]

 

1 hour ago, Irishman in Yorkshire said:

Pretty normal and (thankfully) average model watching for early Spring. It shouldn’t be warm this early in the year. Good to be experiencing average climatic conditions. A temperate, oceanic climate is what we live under, and in early Spring that means cool, variable conditions with a strengthening sun to occasionally make it feel warmer. Weather as it should be...and glad of it. 

I understand what you mean IIY, spring is a period where we used to have a moderated warming over March/April. I think that nature would prefer it that way as the spring flowers out now are lasting longer than they would if it was really warm. Unfortunately I think climate change is resulting in more dramatic swings, although spring has always been an a volatile time as well. It seems from the models that any dramatic warm up has been eroded with if anything a noticeable cooling off. GFS 06z shows this in the last half of March. This could cause problems for gardeners/growers but could mean an extended spring which may not be a bad thing, although clag off the north sea at this time of year is certainly not the type of weather most people want. Interesting model watching again.....

 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2021 by minus10

[Allseasons-Si]

Meteociel up and running but limited data...

the gfs//p is a cold run and gets the -12 uppers in from the east at 216.

 

[Frigid]

been a while since i've posted here. anyways, the GEFS 6z have virtually eliminated the warm spell in favour of something colder, not often that happens. Though it does look settled in the long range. 

Edited March 11, 2021 by Frigid

[MP-R]

8 minutes ago, Frigid said:

been a while since i've posted here. anyways, the GEFS 6z have virtually eliminated the warm spell in favour of something colder, not often that happens. Though it does look settled in the long range. 

It doesn't often happen, but when it does... it's not winter. 

[Allseasons-Si]

The ICON possibly setting up a northerly here at 180...

[SqueakheartLW]

Anyone looking for some early April fun in terms of cold would like to see this tale of two sides of early spring

The warmer settled phase

This is based on Member 14 of today's GFS Extended run and shows how a deceptive warm spell can soon turn

Fri 26th March 2021 12pm     2m temp max 8.4C

High pressure sets in by Friday 26th March and is the beginning of a period of dry settled weather. Things remain this way and continue to warm up throughout the period between this day and Maundy Thursday which is the next chart I will feature

Thu 1st April 2021 12pm     2m temp 15.1C

A pleasant day with temperatures in the mid teens, probably upper teens in the SE of the UK. Odds on for a decent Easter weather at this stage

Fri 2nd April 2021 12pm     2m temp 15.2C

Another day for Good Friday really like Maundy Thursday with similar temperatures again. What could possibly go wrong if you want warm settled weather throughout the Easter period?

Sat 3rd April 2021 12pm     2m temp 16.9C

Another decent day's weather for Easter Saturday here on this Member 14 of the Extended GFS. Warmer than the previous 2 days also with a new warm high of 16.9C. Can Easter Sunday top this?

Sun 4th April 2021 12pm     2m temp 17.2C

Easter Sunday sees the peak of the warmth for this settled spell with 2m temps at 17.2C and no doubt threatening 20C in the SE corner of the UK but trouble is lurking up to the north as the high is beginning to retrogress out into the Atlantic now. Can we squeeze out one more final warm day for Easter Monday or is that Arctic plunge going to spoil things for warm lovers and give the cold lovers something to cheer about?

Mon 5th April 2021 12pm     2m temp 16.3C

It couldn't last could it. Easter Monday maybe achieves pleasant temperatures in England and Wales with a max of 16.3C for Scunthorpe and no doubt threatening 20C again in the SE but the cold Arctic air is already pushing into Scotland and N Ireland and the much cooler greens can be seen pushing into these areas.

The colder phase

Tue 6th April 2021 12pm     2m temp 5.6C

What a difference a day makes. Easter Monday saw 16.3C for Scunthorpe as a maximum, Tuesday 6th April sees a big drop to a maximum of just 5.6C, a 10.7C drop in just a day. Still mainly dry with some high pressure influences but with the Arctic air source now then long gone are those pleasant warm temperatures.

Wed 7th April 2021 12pm     2m temp 6.3C

Maybe not quite a cold on Wednesday 7th April with a moderating Atlantic influence here but at 6.3C it is still quite chilly for early April but this is only a brief less cold period before the next wave of Arctic air moves in

Thu 8th April 2021 12pm     2m temp 5.2C

The 2nd and final burst of Arctic air has arrived now and is the coldest day of this brief cold snap at 5.2C. After this on Member 14 of the GFS extended sees a gradual warm up as the Arctic influence is lost and by the end of the run we have this

Tue 13th April 2021 12pm     2m temp 14.3C

Back more or less to where we were around the Easter period itself again with high pressure over the UK and pleasant warm temperatures again but not quite as warm as it got around Easter. Member 14 is a generally high pressure dominated run in the extended suite today.

The coldest Easter Sunday chart from the GFS Extended just for fun

Member 20 12pm     850hpa temp -8.8C     2m temp 4.1C

A nice Arctic blast here for Easter Sunday and no doubt a snow threat here, mainly in the form of showers no doubt. A daytime max of just 4.1C is quite low for the time of the year too

Edited March 11, 2021 by SqueakheartLW

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs//p is at it again and gets the colder uppers in quicker at just 186...

Edited March 11, 2021 by Allseasons-si
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