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Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

Posted the least and most windy options from the GFS 00z for Thursday. Both charts are showing the time with the peak wind speeds

Windiest

Member 23     Thu 12pm     Average wind speed in m/s 18.6     Converted to mph 41.6

image.thumb.png.0226c166172bfee14c98e3728db036a8.png

Least but still quite windy chart

Member 19     Thu 12am     Average wind speed in m/s 11.2     Converted to mph 25.1

image.thumb.png.d1b8dc2ee30320862698f2231d129799.png

You can clearly see how much deeper the low pressure is on Member 23 compared with Member 19 and how it is also tracking further south too bringing more of England and Wales into the strongest winds

 

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Posted
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)

Interesting to see the perpetual teasing cold charts in FI 10-14 days away.

 

And, as usual, there they perpetually stay - in FI - whilst our 'real' weather remains, week by week, decidedly ordinary, notwithstanding its usual variations of settled and unsettled. 

 

Edited by PUTIN
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Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

The GFS looks like it was more on the money than ECM for the timing of this week's storm and also had the troughing to the north of Ireland bang on from last Friday. The ECM has now fallen in with its american cousin for 0z Thursday. The T+72h fax shows the same trough, results in a real squeeze through Ireland by Wednesday evening and then across the bulk of the UK by 6am Thursday. Going by the GFS, it will be at its worst for most of Ireland, then North Wales, Southern Scotland and Northern England, though windy pretty much everywhere. 

ECM 00z T+72                                            GFS 06z T+66                                       UKMO Fax 00z T+72

ecm500_072.thumb.png.5d29f81381575e4ce619ce8cc83bc2a2.pngh500slp.thumb.png.fe0804677ebd074cf5a9c824ef6adf7f.pngPPVK89.thumb.gif.16f577ef80c46e530fe1de7889066776.gif

 

ECM then bringing some colder air further south for Saturday with a bit of repeat of the transient N-S troughing to Ireland (528 south of Cork, Pembrokeshire to Norfolk), GFS not so keen on the troughing this time or bringing the colder air as far south (528 Donegal to Lancashire and Yorkshire). 

ECM 00z T+120                                       GFS 06z T+114

ecm500_120.thumb.png.a4fe008d3162c063af3f1a73e837e5c1.png1616372461_h500slp(1).thumb.png.35fe2afa1b8f8424fee82a6dbbbecd3b.png

Edited by Cambrian
Label for second GFS chart missing
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

As many of us have predicted, the models now firming up that midweek will be a short unsettled period, followed by a return to high pressure in the vicinity of the UK, here GEM, GFS and ECM at T168 and T240, settled through that period, whether cool or warm flank of the high for us to be decided I think:

1BAA2D41-FB7E-4FE0-AE27-7E10C3614273.thumb.png.953fde2abc338f048ca94168fd088ea6.png5A2B0694-DF25-43A7-B2FA-CD13123DD6AA.thumb.png.166d169ca34761ddfcaf56ccf80aa13e.png

B6516564-76F8-4465-8D78-BC18FDC7C2FD.thumb.png.a0925af315aa10096e34c24e55bf9596.pngC9F534D4-A7F9-4D76-80E9-E7AC2E7F65F3.thumb.png.ad525262a3648d63c8045accbb565f3f.png

2C38B8C5-92EE-4DCD-831B-EB3281EB4740.thumb.gif.f4a4d9c8c858be25205ffb7f98ba7bed.gifD19D8F57-587A-464C-8270-8BCD448FD88C.thumb.gif.41d5929b9207a4fd183e7d1b131629e5.gif

My interest in this spell is also forward looking - how will the sea temperatures respond to another settled spell, now the sun is gathering strength.  Current SSTs:

1B928597-07F9-4C17-8BC5-18D5D3F63029.thumb.png.fdcaa1084e3f9438e3b1dcc59777e973.png

In a way I’d prefer the high SW as per ECM T240 for long term gain!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

image.thumb.png.114c31329d7ecb2c9b91e42ff82672fe.png

Just wonder what the next frame would have shown.....

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Quite a few members going very warm end of next week now...

3D617322-9C75-4353-9410-AA1B911227F5.png

Hey, Tim, you joining us for the summer chase this year, then?

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Winter may not be quite done according to this morning GFS abeit been in FI.

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

No real change from the last few days modelling. HP building post-d6 but the models still playing with how that develops. This has been the story all winter and we will need a day or more to see how far north the core high moves? The ops push it towards Iceland of the UK at d10:

gfs>gfs-0-240.thumb.png.4d94c9422f4ae656b866f8a64520acde.png ecm>ECM1-240.thumb.gif.072f69a5a663e885026a495fc63dde9b.gif

The gefs mean, core over the UK:

gens-31-1-240.thumb.png.dd953410c4920872a23733eae09e8582.png

The tPV looks weak and pliable so I would not rule anything out? This is a repeating pattern all winter and cold spells have developed from this setup.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
49 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Winter may not be quite done according to this morning GFS abeit been in FI.

C.S

I'm pretty sure models were showing snowy charts starting the 18th/19th of March a few days ago and now they're showing it again, so maybe ?‍♂️

ECM  image.thumb.png.7f3b871deca58e29d1e28cb672368f5a.png GFS image.thumb.png.81adf2f21e60705d59561adebd253dbd.png

I think we'll end up with something like the GEM - I don't mind either way.

image.thumb.png.97351509f2bcce0d2b57e917f1956636.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.1f183bb92f341a453eb9ad360b6a75da.pngimage.thumb.png.6a9583c6099bcb7a2412f7cfd685b3ce.png

Good to see a drier and more settled outlook returning after an unsettled week.

Temperatures very much dependent on where the high ends up.....so we could end up with anything from single figure maxima to mid teens. To be determined.

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

Yes..just when we are looking forward to some fine warmer weather after the stormy bit the gfs and ecm give us prospect of NE 's..

 

image.thumb.png.5295746a639db22687f61e419c68e66c.png

 

image.thumb.png.6ad77efa281f7ddfac42ed304d7bdd63.png

As others have stated it is all about where the HP locates however this is a reminder that colder weather is not yet off the table.....

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
39 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Yes..just when we are looking forward to some fine warmer weather after the stormy bit the gfs and ecm give us prospect of NE 's..

 

image.thumb.png.5295746a639db22687f61e419c68e66c.png

 

image.thumb.png.6ad77efa281f7ddfac42ed304d7bdd63.png

As others have stated it is all about where the HP locates however this is a reminder that colder weather is not yet off the table.....

image.thumb.png.231ffc7034e65a63b8efe08db2d0498f.pngimage.thumb.png.c0d3ba85b3c937f27d55923d14859222.pngimage.thumb.png.d7d171ebec970b676a6bcaf5ec7fe87d.png

ECM op was an outlier at the end of the run in terms of SLP/500/850, so not too much concern there.

The general trend is good which is the main thing - with mean pressure above 1025mb from day 7 until day 10 and beyond.
Probably another couple of days before we can start to be more sure about where the high may end up sitting.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.231ffc7034e65a63b8efe08db2d0498f.pngimage.thumb.png.c0d3ba85b3c937f27d55923d14859222.pngimage.thumb.png.d7d171ebec970b676a6bcaf5ec7fe87d.png

ECM op was an outlier at the end of the run in terms of SLP/500/850, so not too much concern there.

The general trend is good which is the main thing - with mean pressure above 1025mb from day 7 until day 10 and beyond.
Probably another couple of days before we can start to be more sure about where the high may end up sitting.

Not as cold but the ECM // supports it.

image.thumb.png.9f4da24f21b1864d749db79bbc62d1c9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Yes..just when we are looking forward to some fine warmer weather after the stormy bit the gfs and ecm give us prospect of NE 's..

 

image.thumb.png.5295746a639db22687f61e419c68e66c.png

 

image.thumb.png.6ad77efa281f7ddfac42ed304d7bdd63.png

As others have stated it is all about where the HP locates however this is a reminder that colder weather is not yet off the table.....

I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking this would be horrific in the current situation. The worst case scenario and the most extreme. Seems like even the diehard coldies are looking forward to something warmer now.

Thankfully there is every chance of the position of the high changing over the next few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS brothers at T192:

CD4F83FD-2447-41BD-93E1-89D140586A63.thumb.png.4aef61e925432531e5327976a9601222.pngC52BD48F-6E95-4821-BE3A-A8920F10F11C.thumb.png.dd05b68a2f53d58aacc457942c51ed8b.png

This is the kind of pattern we will want to see imprinted later into summer, so good that it is happening now.  Best bet for a decent summer is jet stream north and reinforcing pattern through SSTs, this isn’t a bad start in early spring. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Having said that the GEM’s gone off on one and brought back winter big time, T192;

772BC04B-61BE-4E02-8ED3-C2FDFE6F589A.thumb.png.459342b90415570bd8f4d0717cea4f3a.png

And T240:

1248C229-6E03-4A84-A4F7-ECE324EAE720.thumb.png.99a33b4c6b3dbe003398394b43c54306.png56224004-732A-470D-A788-C4957D3C645D.thumb.png.d64a2e1db9cb566f11b3da276db8fdf0.png

 

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