Model output discussion 10/02/21

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

That’s more like it

dont get your hopes up...



 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, next week is set to become increasingly unsettled but thereafter there are signs it will be relaxing it’s grip with more of a North / South split by mid month or soon after, there are some anticyclonic 6z members longer term and on balance I think at least the s / se will gradually improve over time, even if the n / nw doesn’t!...just my opinion!  

 

Edited March 5, 2021 by Jon Snow

[knocker]

The development of the two lows along the frontal, baroclinic, zone, that eventually merge north of Scotland according to this evening's gfs

[Dorsetbred]

2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, next week is set to become increasingly unsettled but thereafter there are signs it will be relaxing it’s grip with more of a North / South split by mid month or soon after, there are some anticyclonic 6z members longer term and on balance I think at least the s / se will gradually improve over time, even if the n / nw doesn’t!...just my opinion!  

 

I suppose that's the definition of SPRING in reality?

[Tim Bland]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

dont get your hopes up...



 

Some consistency for a settled spell mid month starting to show now though...

[minus10]

Latest gfs is spring all over. Calm and cold followed by wet and very windy weather, indeed potentially stormy before turning colder again then calming down and warming up. Indeed right at end of run very warm air showing (although FI). At t384 it looks like the hot and cold air beasts are squaring up for a fight in the atlantic....

[Polar Maritime]

Absolutely Minus10, The Models are certainly showing 'typical early Spring conditions, With everything but the kitchen sink thrown it!

Edited March 5, 2021 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

The ecm

[andy989]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Latest gfs is spring all over. Calm and cold followed by wet and very windy weather, indeed potentially stormy before turning colder again then calming down and warming up. Indeed right at end of run very warm air showing (although FI). At t384 it looks like the hot and cold air beasts are squaring up for a fight in the atlantic....

Have I really just read a spring is over post??

[Polar Maritime]

6 minutes ago, andy989 said:

Have I really just read a spring is over post??

No, He means a typical early Spring outlook.

Edited March 5, 2021 by Polar Maritime

[minus10]

Ecm not so keen on settling down as much as gfs....at day 10

[phil nw.]

After being under strength for much of Winter the polar vortex is bouncing back with a steady increase in zonal winds. 

Temperatures in the Stratosphere at 60n and 10hPa have plunged recently. 

No surprise that a period of unsettled  weather in a mobile Atlantic driven pattern from early next week is the outlook in the charts. 

A quite different picture now with the demise of northern blocking and those purple colours at 500hPa returning to the Greenland area. 

Edited March 5, 2021 by phil nw.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z...Long way out but I think I’ve spotted BFTE 2.0!?  ️ 

[Stuie]

25 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the GEFS 12z...Long way out but I think I’ve spotted BFTE 2.0!?  ️ 

Not sure how many winter `straws` you have left tbh Jon but a nod to that.

Think we now have to move  onto the traditional spring, as dry as possible hopefully.

Edited March 5, 2021 by Stuie W

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Not sure how many winter `straws` you have left tbh Jon but a nod to that.

Think we now have to move  onto the traditional spring, as dry as possible hopefully.

Aye, think safe to say winter finished in this area on 14th/15th Feb, no GFS run really last few days bringing cold air in, Atlantic week next week, then boring high pressure from 15th

[Stuie]

13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, think safe to say winter finished in this area on 14th/15th Feb, no GFS run really last few days bringing cold air in, Atlantic week next week, then boring high pressure from 15th

Next week needs watching, potentially really gusty.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Next week needs watching, potentially really gusty.

 

Aye, looking at storm Evert I think next Wed

[Mike Poole]

I don’t think the medium range outlook has shifted much today.  Unsettled on ECM T168, and more settled conditions in the pipeline T240, I wasn’t expecting them sooner:

GFS has high pressure heading towards us T270:

Clear signal for a while.  Consistent in my view with an upsurge in AAM, and with the MJO a bit uncertain, but not in the ‘bad’ phases?

Trend to warm and settled latter part of March for me, I’ll take that....we will see...

[stodge]

Evening all

Another chilly day in lowland East London but the settled spell looks to be in its last days as next week looks much more unsettled and it may be we are in for a prolonged spell of mobile and unsettled conditions. The signal earlier in the week for a settled spell mid month looked to have faded last evening but both the GEM and ECM yesterday offered some possible routes to amplification in the medium term.

On then to tonight's ramblings and let's look at T+144 and T+240 from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel respectively:

T+144 (March 11th):

T+240 (March 15th):

A lot of agreement across the models this evening. A brief but quite stormy period of Atlantic-driven weather starts early next week and persists for 3-5 days with deep LP crossing just to the north of the British Isles and the potential for some strong winds as well as rain and snow for hills and mountains especially in Scotland and northern England. From there, the Atlantic jet quickly slows again and this allows heights to rise from the south west and while ECM is more muted in bringing the Azores HP into play, GEM and both GFS OP and Parallel have distinct HP cells moving towards southern Britain and by T+240 these are either over northern France or near to Iberia. With the heights comes a relaxation in both wind and rain and rising temperatures as a more TM air flow takes over (again ECM is the most muted of the models retaining a weak but shallow trough from southern Iceland to Scandinavia).

Moving on and the T+312 and T+384 charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS:

T+312 (March 18th):

T+384 (March 21st):

After last night's flirtation with a more mobile evolution, the anticyclonic model is back with a vengeance this evening with a strong signal for height rises after mid month. The old conundrum is then where does the HP set up. Op and Parallel go with HP to the east which allows for a benign S'ly draw (not sure about Parallel's Atlantic hurricane at T+384). Control shows what a quieter northern jet can mean as the heights build further north and instead of a benign SE'ly, we get a chilly NE'ly across the south. CFS goes its own way and puts the core of heights to the south west. Both CFS and GFS OP keep a stronger northern jet while Parallel and Control have something rather weaker. I noticed this last evening but Parallel has a significantly weaker and warmer 10HPA profile further into FI than OP - I don't know if this is manifesting in slower zonal wind speeds on the Parallel but it's what you would expect later in March whereas OP keeps a more robust and colder vortex for longer.

[Daniel*]

34 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I don’t think the medium range outlook has shifted much today.  Unsettled on ECM T168, and more settled conditions in the pipeline T240, I wasn’t expecting them sooner:

GFS has high pressure heading towards us T270:

Clear signal for a while.  Consistent in my view with an upsurge in AAM, and with the MJO a bit uncertain, but not in the ‘bad’ phases?

Trend to warm and settled latter part of March for me, I’ll take that....we will see...

Well what I’ve seen this week the return of settled and warmer weather has been pushed back? So we’ll see about that. Little to suggest we will see anything warm in a while perhaps trending closer to average it is only March. 

 

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Well what I’ve seen this week the return of settled and warmer weather has been pushed back? So we’ll see about that. Little to suggest we will see anything warm in a while perhaps trending closer to average it is only March. 

 

Yes, I think last third of March, just so long as it is in place by 12 April

Edited March 5, 2021 by Mike Poole

[damianslaw]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I think last third of March, just so long as it is in place by 12 April

Not based on anything other than seeing alot of bottled up cold air in the arctic through March it will be soda law a potent northerly arrives at some point first half April..would not be surprised at all.

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Not based on anything other than seeing alot of bottled up cold air in the arctic through March it will be soda law a potent northerly arrives at some point first half April..would not be surprised at all.

I can’t see the mechanism that would draw that air to the UK now, the SSW has fizzled out now.  I can’t see anything other than an occasional transient northerly or easterly cold blast possible, otherwise a warm up beckons?

Edited March 5, 2021 by Mike Poole

[minus10]

From hp on 12z gfs to trough on 18z Longer period of fine weather is still not guaranteed this month...

 

[Don]

14 minutes ago, minus10 said:

From hp on 12z gfs to trough on 18z Longer period of fine weather is still not guaranteed this month...

 

Plenty of time for long periods of fine weather as it's only March.