Model output discussion 10/02/21

[bluearmy]

Spring is a coming - first 2021 typhoon spotted on NH gfsp fi chart ! 

[feb1991blizzard]

20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Spring is a coming - first 2021 typhoon spotted on NH gfsp fi chart ! 

Do typhoons usually transpire into UK warm spells? just lowered my CET March guess now - lol - maybe i shouldn't have!

[Frosty.]

Oh my, I feel faint, there’s actually some snaw on the Gfs 6z op..I need to go lie down now..exquise me!  

 

[johnholmes]

55 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

"dead skies"...... dreadful weather conditions...

Also, some are saying they dont want mild now because its mild most of the year..... but its not the same! these early warmer days in the sun are so refreshing and dont compare to warmth at other times of the year.

Lovely shortish walk and then on to my patio, the first time this year, coffee, not a sound or a breath of wind-wonderful. Roll on the end of the week for hopefully a change from what this area will have most of the coming week.

Re the models, then NOAA runs again with its idea 24 hours ago and its 8-14 shows a broad westerly being its preference for the upper air pattern, see below

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[phil nw.]

Quite a lengthy dry period as we end Winter and go into March looking at the models.

High pressure dominating and many of us continue to see some lovely sunny days but frosts around at night.The fly in the ointment could be cloud spreading in from the north sea at times where we pick up an easterly flow.

The high pressure ridging towards Iceland briefly so colder air is drawn from Scandinavia at the end of the week. 

  

This may give some wintry showers towards the ne and daytime temperatures down to mid-low single figures  for many.So a short cold snap by the looks but nothing dramatic as the high sinks back south early next week.

Edited February 28, 2021 by phil nw.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

"dead skies"...... dreadful weather conditions...

Also, some are saying they dont want mild now because its mild most of the year..... but its not the same! these early warmer days in the sun are so refreshing and dont compare to warmth at other times of the year.

Yes moving towards that time of year roughly I say mid March to mid April when the sun feels warm, but not quite hot enough to quickly burn fair skin make for discomfort when taking exercise or mild exertion - not overpowering. Probably best time of year for outdoor walking as everything emerges from winter hibernation. The sun has same effect in September but there is a different feel to things and less chance if sustained settled conditions.

Alas not quite there yet, current temp only 5.7 degrees, indicative of fact sun in the north at least still not quite enough power in it. 

[Frosty.]

Ok..I admit, I’m a bit drunk and very confused...but.....for sure there is some wintery potential in the GEFS 6z once it turns unsettled..before that..pffft..yeah, I’ve learned a thing or 2 in the last 15 / 16 years..since I joined netweather!!!!...

Edited February 28, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

Where there’s life..there’s hope.. this is exclusively for the coldies..if there is any left?...meow..yeah, I love cats..go figure!!?

Edited February 28, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

Sad news today, Johnny Briggs ( Mike Baldwin) Coronation Street died..it made me cry...anyway, the ECM 0z ensemble mean is a little less cold than last nights 12z..although that probably doesn’t mean much since we are supposed to compare like with like!.....anyway..my opinion is that we have more chance of worthwhile wintery potential when it turns more generally unsettled towards mid March onwards when there is scope for cold zonality / arctic maritime!...hmm.hmm?...some will disagree but it’s just my opinion! ..meow..now where is my saucer of milk..?

Edited February 28, 2021 by Jon Snow

[bluearmy]

4 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Do typhoons usually transpire into UK warm spells? just lowered my CET March guess now - lol - maybe i shouldn't have!

Nope - theY just are rare during the NH winter on the NH map .....

Edited February 28, 2021 by bluearmy

[Don]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

my opinion is that we have more chance of worthwhile wintery potential when it turns more generally unsettled towards mid March onwards when there is scope for cold zonality / arctic maritime!...hmm.hmm?...some will disagree but it’s just my opinion! ..meow..now where is my saucer of milk..?

Trouble is, cold zonality is as rare as rocking horse poop these days!  However, at least the charts remain fairly interesting.

[Tim Bland]

Interesting  

[phil nw.]

UKMO T120

shows the UK seeing the edge of a cold plunge of Arctic air.The main thrust of this  over Scandinavia and W.Russia who seem to have had quite a lot of bitter cold in the second half of their Winter.A sharp contrast to the early season warmth caused by the Euro ridging back then.

For us a cooling trend later next week under the high with some sharp frosts but a lot of dry weather continuing through next weekend.Then signs of a change to a less settled outlook the following week.

T144

signs of the westerlies returning as the high starts to sink and decline with Atlantic systems approaching the north.

[Don]

26 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

UKMO T120

shows the UK seeing the edge of a cold plunge of Arctic air.The main thrust of this  over Scandinavia and W.Russia who seem to have had quite a lot of bitter cold in the second half of their Winter.A sharp contrast to the early season warmth caused by the Euro ridging back then.

 

Yet another tease for the UK, typical of this winter!

[UKSupercell]

Where is Matt Wolves with the daily cold sermon?! 

I typically only comment in other threads during SE snow events or summer storm time, but have been following this thread with my invisibility cloak for ages....

But have much enjoyed the passion and optimism from fellow coldies, particularly Matt commander in chief it seems! 

Would love to see some more snow before we get stuck into any proper spring sunshine and warmth, as the last cold spell was a bit of a letdown here this far W in East Hants. 

Am I right in saying the "cold spell" is only going to last for a few days and generally just be cloudy & dry, before the atlantic influences our weather again? 

Seems there's some great outlooks on various GFS models and ECM but just too far ahead to be certain! 

[Jordan S]

There is the chance of a few wintry showers on thursday and friday before that high moving south covers us next weekend.

Although 8-14 days is a long way off weather wise and much can change it does continue to look more likely that unsettled weather will effect the UK, temperatures are looking more likely to be average or a little below average for many with the possibility of snow to mostly higher ground in the north at times.. 

Gem control..

Gfs..

it may be particularly unsettled at times towards the end of that week with one or two spells of very strong winds and the small possibility of gales.

Although another pattern showing up is a more south shift with the jetstream keeping the most unsettled weather to the south and west, smaller areas of rain, mostly hill snow and showers mainly around smal disturbances throughout the latter part of the week something similar to the Ecmwf this evening meaning not as wet if that happens..

I'll probably add more detail tomorrow

[stodge]

Evening all

A chillier start in lowland East London before the sun broke through at lunchtime. It looks as though it will be a chilly weekend next weekend - a long way from BTFE to be fair. From there, it looks likely the Atlantic will break through as we head to mid month but let's see what tonight's procrastinations have to offer.

T+144 and T+240 charts to start from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel

T+144 (March 6th):

T+240 (March 10th):

A fair amount of agreement tonight. The HP which comes off Greenland next week quickly sinks south to the British Isles by the weekend and is close to or just to the east over the North Sea by T+144. From there, everyone gets to the same place which is a much more unsettled Atlantic driven evolution by T+240. The journeys are slightly different but the net effect is a much more unsettled, wetter and windier spell from the middle of next week onward. The LP look on quite a southerly track so it could be good for snowfall for mountains and higher hills in the north.

Moving on to T+312 and T+384 from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS:

T+312 (March 13th):

T+384 (March 16th):

Plenty of options on offer once again in far FI. More than a hint of new amplification and height rises around mid month - certainly nothing very cold and no long fetch SW'lies either. The journey beyond T+240 certainly a long way from being resolved as you might expect.

[damianslaw]

Feels like the doldrums of high summer in here this evening when the forum is usually at its quietest. No words on GFS 18z run, people must be in spring mode.

Where is everyone?

Alas GFS 18z run showing a potential brief NW/N shot admittedly well beyond reliable, but plausible before heights ridge back in.

Oddly quiet for a Sunday evening..

[lassie23]

49 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Feels like the doldrums of high summer in here this evening when the forum is usually at its quietest. No words on GFS 18z run, people must be in spring mode.

Where is everyone?

Alas GFS 18z run showing a potential brief NW/N shot admittedly well beyond reliable, but plausible before heights ridge back in.

Oddly quiet for a Sunday evening..

Think everybody wanted an easterly and a NW/N just doesn't cut it.

[PUTIN]

7 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Think everybody wanted an easterly and a NW/N just doesn't cut it.

Nah, North-North-Westerly's much better  for some of our locations. So not everybody

[damianslaw]

Models in agreement this morning up to 10 days ahead , rare...

A quiet week ahead, high pressure dominant, but for some quite a bit of cloud which will peg back temps somewhat. Best conditions earlier in the week for western parts including here, lots of blue sky and sunshine and frost.

Stubborn mist and fog may plague some parts.

Later in the week, cold for all, as high pressure pulls in a brief colder NE flow.

By the weekend the high slips away to the south allowing the Atlantic back in, so we will end the week unsettled.

Into next week, unsettled, wind and rain for the north and west, a cold NW airflow by Wednesday, snow on northern high ground, possibly low ground as well. Cold.

[Tim Bland]

Cooling down this week and then next week is slightly below average temps and unsettled. Nothing interesting showing, perhaps some snow on highest ground in the north and on Scottish mountains 

[LetItSnow!]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Cooling down this week and then next week is slightly below average temps and unsettled. Nothing interesting showing, perhaps some snow on highest ground in the north and on Scottish mountains 

Call me boring if you like but I enjoy spells of non-descript, non-record breaking weather. Looking forward to some seasonable March weather  

[SLEETY]

looks good until that high slips south, at day four and back to usual crud,why cant it move to a favourable position for cold weather to move in,plenty of cold air to tap-in to still,so disappointing again,can see why nobody is posting,the cold weather hardly ever hits!

[mushymanrob]

Most of you wont like this..... but there NO quick route to cold on this chart, and more to the point, theres no Northern Blocking which has been present since late November .

These charts have been edging tentetively towards a westerly regime, this chart now really runs with it, so unsettled, windy, average, but have drifted away from any route that would allow a proper wintry spell.