Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Too much in the way of heights to the south.

Don,...look at the cutback S of Scandi,..IE:- cold backed further W/SW into the UK with -8's.

[Griff]

Para says keep the faith... 

Come on @MATTWOLVES

[ICE COLD]

Evening,  para looks interesting

Also just read an article on sky news that the Gulf Stream is at its weakest for 1000 years . Could give the UK and NW Europe extreme and intense winters . I’ll be having some of that . Cluster of cold winters ahead ?? 

[Allseasons-Si]

I am not joking but looking at the latest,...we are on the cusp!

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Don,...look at the cutback S of Scandi,..IE:- cold backed further W/SW into the UK with -8's.

Yes, I think I'm hard to please lol!  Definitely better 18Z compared to 12.

Edited February 25, 2021 by Don

[ICE COLD]

T204 para could turn into a beaut . 

[Don]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Also just read an article on sky news that the Gulf Stream is at its weakest for 1000 years . Could give the UK and NW Europe extreme and intense winters . I’ll be having some of that . Cluster of cold winters ahead ?? 

I saw a similar article last week.   I'll have some of that!

[ICE COLD]

Cold pool ready to pounce

[Allseasons-Si]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, I think I'm hard to please lol!  Definitely better 18Z compared to 12.

I try to please everyone,...on a cold persuasive anyway

i do feel there would be one last chance saloon for cold but where it comes from i would of thought from the E/NE or north

i feel like i am the tin man from wizard of oz ATM,...that way,this way,or both ways...

lets see where this hp cell sits in the coming days,bring it further north then it's game on for some sort of  easterly,there is cold out east,can we tap into it?

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

55 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Evening,  para looks interesting

Also just read an article on sky news that the Gulf Stream is at its weakest for 1000 years . Could give the UK and NW Europe extreme and intense winters . I’ll be having some of that . Cluster of cold winters ahead ?? 

I'm glad you've brought this up mate...This is something I've been dwelling on for some time..Dont want to go to off topic here but there could be a possibility of large amounts of melting Arctic Ice that are beginning to disrupt the warm current of the gulf stream...Its a possibility so don't shoot me down..another reason why climate change could bring a cooling trend to the Northern Hemisphere!! Great Potential for more significant cold outbreaks but worrying all the same.. 

Para looks pretty good guys keep up the good work...im having a film night,catch you all tomorrow

A couple for the road.

Edited February 25, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Griff]

Here's a random assortment of charts that I'm surprised nobody else has commented on or posted yet this morning. 

TLDR, ECM for the win! 

UKMO also interesting

[Nick F]

Morning, the model output has raised my eyebrow this morning, particularly 00z EC, UKMO and GEM building the high in the vicinity of Iceland at day 6 whilst omnipresent cold vortex over NW Russia threatens to spread cold southwest/west across eastern/central Europe.

However, quite a bit of divergence early on, day 6, with the TPV over NE Canada, GFS a lot stronger and organised with this vortex than the Euros, which ultimately leads to flattening out of the high with too much energy in the jet downstream over the far north Atlantic.

[Frosty.]

Well well, lookie here what we got from the ECM 0z operational, this has really come out of left field..a bit more westward correction and it’s a BINGO!  ..sausage baps and stellas...oops, I’m turning into Legritter!!

 

[IDO]

No shock that the ecm op is a massive stat outlier quite early on and ATM looks unlikely:

ecm has been pretty meh this winter at that range! Looking at d10 means and gem, ecm and gefs:

Looking like variations on the theme of a flattening pattern? The ecm looks the middle ground.

IMBY looking like dry for the next 8-days (bar the op that looks an outlier for rain) and mid-week another 3-day milder spell before cooling down, as the high shifts around:

[ICE COLD]

Morning , winter coming back

[Swave Snow]

Polar bears would be lost forever 

[Battleground Snow]

14 minutes ago, IDO said:

No shock that the ecm op is a massive stat outlier quite early on and ATM looks unlikely:

ecm has been pretty meh this winter at that range! Looking at d10 means and gem, ecm and gefs:

Looking like variations on the theme of a flattening pattern? The ecm looks the middle ground.

IMBY looking like dry for the next 8-days (bar the op that looks an outlier for rain) and mid-week another 3-day milder spell before cooling down, as the high shifts around:

ECM may be an outlier v it's ensembles, but importantly it has support from its para run, ukmo and Icon, there are also some gfs ensembles that flirt with -10.

Probably will be cold and frosty, but at 6-8 days away it wouldn't take much adjustment for for lower heights to make it to the UK from the east

[ICE COLD]

16 minutes ago, IDO said:

No shock that the ecm op is a massive stat outlier quite early on and ATM looks unlikely:

ecm has been pretty meh this winter at that range! Looking at d10 means and gem, ecm and gefs:

Looking like variations on the theme of a flattening pattern? The ecm looks the middle ground.

IMBY looking like dry for the next 8-days (bar the op that looks an outlier for rain) and mid-week another 3-day milder spell before cooling down, as the high shifts around:

Why look at day 10 means when the interest is starting as early as T144 . Both ECM ops with higher res than the ens have this . 

Fast forward to T168 very close ops

so the ops may well be leading the way . Even the mean is trending towards the op (in fact it’s very supportive of it ) just the uppers are not as good as the op but they can get dragged down as the op leads the way . 
 

ECM mean 144 and 168

[Tim Bland]

Haven’t rolled out these charts for a while...

[ICE COLD]

If you look on this graph for London it’s not  even an outlier(well for bout an hour) . Plenty of colder ens in there . 

[Nick F]

Even if 00z EC det/para is at the extreme end of the cold spectrum - there's certainly scope towards the end of next week and following weekend for a cold continental flow to develop via an E or NEly flow. Even GFS op is showing this. 

EC yesterday making more of the MJO wave going into phase 7/8 in early March, while GFS keeps it in COD. So maybe why EC has been been keeping the flow more amplified with high pressure over NW Europe / NE Atlantic, whilst GFS has been more progressive in flattening out the upper flow

Phase 7 in March with Nina:

Edited February 26, 2021 by Nick F

[Penicuikblizzard]

11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Haven’t rolled out these charts for a while...

There would be a bit more inland convection too as we get into March

[mushymanrob]

34 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Even if 00z EC det/para is at the extreme end of the cold spectrum - there's certainly scope towards the end of next week and following weekend for a cold continental flow to develop via an E or NEly flow. Even GFS op is showing this. 

EC yesterday making more of the MJO wave going into phase 7/8 in early March, while GFS keeps it in COD. So maybe why EC has been been keeping the flow more amplified with high pressure over NW Europe / NE Atlantic, whilst GFS has been more progressive in flattening out the upper flow

Phase 7 in March with Nina:

That looks pretty dreadful tbh, high pressure just to our North, a cold northeasterly across the UK, thats not a pleasant chart for anyone....unless you a) live in the far West or b) enjoy cold grey lifeless skies. That smacks of the worst weather one could imagine in Spring, low stratus off the North Sea... at least itll be dry.

[johnholmes]

Not something that the 6-10 or 8-14 noaa supports! That is the output last evening which is rather different from what it has shown for several days. Neither EC nor GFS have changed their pattern but Noaa may be showing what the pattern is going to be. As usual I will wait 2-3 days to see if it persists with this output.

What is it?

A general westerly with some 'suggestion' of height rises near the Azores!

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[Battleground Snow]

It's edging closer, GFS para at 192.

Ukmo will be interesting later, as had the most robust heights earlier.