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Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
3 minutes ago, Griff said:

ECH0-240.gif

Looks suspiciously like the GFS op and para runs from the last few days, strange how GFS does that so often.

Yes it's day 10, but interest comes from the Ukmo and ECM in agreement at days 5 and 6

ECH1-240 (17).gif

Edited by Battleground Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

UKMO and ECM output aligning together, GFS not so, differences in handling of Atlantic trough. UKMO suggesting a more negatively aligned trough allowing warm air affection through east Atlantic consequently the high pressure ridges further north, allowing cold air advection to the east. GFS sort if doing this but everything shunted further west, it shows heights developing over Greenland and a slow moving system spinning around south of Greenland, it then pivots north and shunts heights away to our east, allowing more if an Atlantic feed.

Non the wiser which model has it right. Quite often we see this development, UKMO and ECM aligned, GFS more progressive. End result usually something inbetween, which to me suggests mid Atlantic heights going nowhere fast. Pleasant days and chilly nights. Not very exciting but perhaps that's just what we need now, some calm !

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean seems to be rock-solid about a prolonged anticyclonic spell, much as the earlier 0z...so, a quiet pleasant period is just around the corner!☀️

731434BE-5840-4BFF-94CB-2377C25CF92C.thumb.gif.27eb653c531ead9e3635cdb8443fa711.gif356C8501-D01E-4D16-91A3-25BBD5AB20E7.thumb.gif.baf359fbd9bf9be2f23df2f787a8c9cb.gif121B2D26-EFA0-4E42-AA1D-A27EE2472AB7.thumb.gif.d135be825bfe6aaaa80a39c91f355e52.gifC85F007D-4F66-42C9-8C5C-08FDA55D94FF.thumb.gif.07c5f215acfed3434ccfa6aaadb3717e.gif301A54D8-2892-4249-B9B7-A24A332055B2.thumb.gif.e38b38a939c2ed0a86b33404fea68d46.gif

Yes, Karl, the spread is interesting too, T 240:

183E642B-9AF4-443E-A9CA-135A00671515.thumb.png.84317c6e36dadc584fc3ed019b667fdb.png

Almost zero uncertainty over the UK 10 days out, whatever might be happening, isn’t happening in our locale, that’s for sure.  

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Just now, Mike Poole said:

Yes, Karl, the spread is interesting too, T 240:

183E642B-9AF4-443E-A9CA-135A00671515.thumb.png.84317c6e36dadc584fc3ed019b667fdb.png

Almost zero uncertainty over the UK 10 days out, whatever might be happening, isn’t happening in our locale, that’s for sure.  

You know what will happen then

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

High Pressure (HP) very much the theme of the models last evening. The current heights over central and south eastern Europe look set to be re-enforced by the Azores HP ridging NE and that leads to a new core of heights developing just to the east or south east of the British Isles. The possibilities from there were numerous last night but in the short term (and it will be early March, remember) settled days will be pleasant but clear skies at night can still lead to extensive ground frosts and some quite low numbers in favoured hollows with a wide diurnal range.

Let's see if we have any clues tonight.

T+144 and T+240 charts from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel to start:

T+144 (March 2nd):

image.thumb.png.302c5cc43d6113d77d216534643698db.pngimage.thumb.png.6f833040d3a8bfb72e76c79660931c35.pngimage.thumb.png.a79a445e1b645c79c8d8e9b7388e709b.pngimage.thumb.png.2a47f05755043bce147e874dbb888a08.png

T+240 (March 6th): 

image.thumb.png.8b123f525c84f622db2157ef51168f9b.pngimage.thumb.png.6270fb9d6fcee6046abeffe430520ec1.pngimage.thumb.png.0b2e4d374227ad43575b0b66d7a1bb74.pngimage.thumb.png.94ba61c0f8fc8a5cda663f4a1377bb47.png

At T+144 the anticyclonic trend is very much in evidence. ECM pushes the ridge cleanly to Iceland and links to heights over eastern Greenland. GFS OP, on the other hand, is more progressive breaking down the heights from the west with a stronger Atlantic dominance. GEM and GFS Parallel have the core of heights just to the east of the British Isles.

From there to T+240, GEM and Parallel stay close with both building new heights into mid-Atlantic but with significant energy to the north preventing the heights getting any further north. GFS OP is the most progressive breaking down the heights with a shallow trough moving in from the west, Conversely, ECM builds a wedge of heights to the north west with a moribund Atlantic and a light NE'ly across southern areas of England and uppers of -4 or lower. Quite a cold evolution from ECM which starts with the heights building north at T+144.

Moving on and the T+312 (March 9th) and T+384 (March 12th) charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS:

T+312:

image.thumb.png.64a29590374d49ae68d2b541c47af5c3.pngimage.thumb.png.94e38a124d08c9468b2e6b4484a0232f.pngimage.thumb.png.a98dce360e0568c050957b05929f4c2d.pngimage.thumb.png.9b43d6752323a304418b13280e02bb3f.png

T+384:

image.thumb.png.ffc2db04d0aca4dab6fb178d0f455656.pngimage.thumb.png.323dd194239d32f5758f73c4ca22aa54.pngimage.thumb.png.3cfe895d6277063cd3ef938f2d048751.pngimage.thumb.png.9f32df183d1f525b3032278a7b1e79d8.png

For the first time in a while, definite signals for a change in the pattern emerging in far FI. While Parallel keeps the anticyclonic pattern in place, both GFS OP and Control show a breakdown to a much more unsettled and colder evolution with a dominant trough over or to the north of the British isles and some powerful LP bringing stormy conditions with strong winds.  CFS not quite as dramatic.

Plenty to consider in the evening output which, after a period of relative stability and conformity, is starting to show signs of divergence. The current benign spell runs for at least another 7 days but GFS OP is looking to break that down while ECM re-positions the HP to a much more advantageous position for cold by T+240. Further into FI, GFS OP and Control offer a considerable change in the pattern to a much more cyclonic synoptic with powerful LP coming quite far south. It's not the only game in town by any means with Parallel keeping the anticyclonic and relatively benign pattern for another 7 days so we await to see evidence of a new pattern change in the first week of March or whether the current pattern will be around for a while yet. For snow fans, particularly those in the north and on higher ground, the GFS OP and Control are not without interest in far FI

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
16 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Just a hint of colder solutions appearing towards day 10,

Hopefully somebody can share the extended

london_ecmsd850 (18).png

Not very exciting but not mild.

1543A422-22B0-4582-8227-EDD1A93F3976.thumb.gif.30981b7a7d207e7c725ca7fbae95ac03.gif88CD22AE-67A6-49D5-8A2E-0BAC948C7CF9.thumb.gif.df796ca039a3fb0f2e6f0a4193e82bf9.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM clusters T192-T240:

BA31274B-5966-4E47-9DD5-338A1F1201F3.thumb.png.84776cefa77260ae1ae962cd5f7323aa.png

T264-T360:

254FDCE2-092A-4426-A9CD-19C867E2ADB2.thumb.png.fbaba0f4e5f2db2967767d7028069410.png

Yes high pressure for UK, but around that a bewildering array of possibilities.  Almost meaningless to look at the individual evolutions in the charts, maybe best to look at the border colours:

T240:  35/51 Scandi block 16/51 Atlantic ridge

T360: 9/51 -NAO, 42/51 Atlantic ridge.

Make of that what you will...

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Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West

We have a real dichotomy here, with the EPS it’s an overwhelming signal for HP domination throughout, 240 is illustrative 

image.thumb.gif.7a8bdea8364155c9d907efe040c6913f.gif
 

Meanwhile the GEFS flatten the pattern significantly by that point, and trend quite chilly and unsettled thereafter

image.thumb.png.35d728d1b4eaa44c6d6695fb45d17330.png

The GEPS take the middle ground, illustrating the difficulty at making a punt at this point, though probably more EPS like

image.thumb.png.ecb1b110e7bf79c4726a265e8a36609e.png

Given the para Gfs and, by the looks of it, UKMO, follow the EPS you’d have to give that more weighting.

Nevertheless, the models have a tendency to slowly flatten mean U.K. highs to Bartletts and until that solution disappears from the output completely you can’t discount it.

Much of this seems to hinge on the amplification shown at day 6

image.thumb.png.17d4aed5f7eac7b1e893a3e6db7329b4.png

The ECM shows this clearly, and this height rise translates into a Prolonged settled spell.

The GFS doesn’t and the westerlies are back in NW U.K. quicker than you can say told ya friggin so.

image.thumb.png.ac71acc6853ad674aa204ae7fb9c8e38.png

Here in Cumbria it would be nice if the amp happy EPS had this one nailed. If not it’s one last hurrah for GFS. So long and thanks for all the borrocks GFS, you won’t be missed

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
19 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not very exciting but not mild.

1543A422-22B0-4582-8227-EDD1A93F3976.thumb.gif.30981b7a7d207e7c725ca7fbae95ac03.gif88CD22AE-67A6-49D5-8A2E-0BAC948C7CF9.thumb.gif.df796ca039a3fb0f2e6f0a4193e82bf9.gif

Certainly Daniel...they trend down towards day 10....Then the mean slightly increases before falling away again by day 14...That mean was around -3C for the Midlands...and there's a fair amount of spread between the members with some being quite a bit colder! But the form horse i feel is on a general Cooling trend overall..Gather the troops kid...I still think a short sharp shock is not out of the question before all is said and done. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Well this is more along the lines of what I was thinking would happen in March

image.thumb.png.202183c2a75218fff769007cfa0adee9.png

Perhaps with a tad more Greenland heights

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Hi all - Not posted much recently, model burnout I think, weeks and weeks of exciting wintry prospects, though locally almost a blank on the ground.

Anyway onto the start of March. Almost certainly a settled and mainly dry picture from D3 onwards, and no clear-cut sign of a cold feed in the ECM clusters out to D10 (really need blue anomalies over Europe for that). Equally, no blow-torch southerly. I'd think average or just above average temperatures to start the month, just the chance of a bit of chill if the flow turns back to the continent.

image.thumb.png.3ca2760d2319fb79196586efdc665423.png  image.thumb.png.8c69125cc4d2e794754314adf05e05b8.png

Towards mid-March, a bit more like "allsorts" on the clusters, but to get cold/snow by this time will require prefect synoptics, and probably only cluster 4 gets close to that. The middle ground of the other clusters strike of average/changeable conditions

image.thumb.png.2b455bcb3368cc38eedfb64f7b3d1145.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Is this the mod thread or the Countryfile pollen service

Captains log Day 101...where are all the cold chasers Doc...I think someone needs to beam me up sharpish.

Just a thought many cold snaps in March follow an unseasonably mild few days before hand..Theres know exception here...just having a read of Nick Fs blog points this out rather well! In all honesty after this quite spell with average temps,although an increasing risk of frost by night...im beginning to think we could become colder and more unsettled towards mid month rather than the Exeter prognosis of milder and wetter!! Plenty of hints in those ensembles today.Its a tiresome hunt but I've remained intact...my head as not fallen off yet..

gens-4-1-288.png

gens-9-1-348.png

gens-10-1-276.png

gens-10-0-324.png

gens-12-1-192.png

gens-13-1-360.png

gens-20-1-384.png

gens-22-1-348.png

gens-22-0-372.png

gens-23-1-384.png

 

Good work as always Matt! 

Options still on the table. 

Keeping an eye on settled and sunny vs insidious and sneaky easterly, bringing cooler but not freezing cold. Freezing cold however, remains an option that can't be ruled out... ?‍♂️ 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

If you cannot find your post, it's because it has been moved next door.

Model discussion only in here, please?!

Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
56 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Anyone want a BOOM chart. Here is Member 26 from the latest extended GFS

image.thumb.png.c169fcbff5b07289113dbd93f798340e.pngimage.thumb.png.44113671e0e3452dcdc88fa85861d055.pngimage.thumb.png.a658ce8852a1fa9ce786d7c0de4b9351.png

I that’s the length you have to go to get one I’m not interested!

GEM T240 gives maybe some hope of a northerly thereafter:

BAC9D931-43C0-4500-AA96-6DFD0C680645.thumb.png.7339ac7b248918ecff5a68583cd96d03.png

Think it is only in that timeframe that something cold might crop up, but I certainly wouldn’t bank on it.

The earlier height rises on the GFS runs comes to nothing.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

GEM could become interesting with a few little tweaks! Cold air gets pretty close, just for the record this run does end by becoming pretty chilly and unsettled...with a polar Maritime influence.. The GFS run is on the cold side throughout where as the para run as completely different ideas. I've noticed Exeter highlight the uncertainty regarding where Heights will become focused,so colder conditions remain on the table for the foreseeable.

gemnh-1-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Anyone want a BOOM chart. Here is Member 26 from the latest extended GFS

image.thumb.png.c169fcbff5b07289113dbd93f798340e.pngimage.thumb.png.44113671e0e3452dcdc88fa85861d055.pngimage.thumb.png.a658ce8852a1fa9ce786d7c0de4b9351.png

Well if nothing else its one for the archives! -15 uppers down to the south coast

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I'll await the ECM but the trend appears to be to perhaps heights building further north in time, whether this allows for a rather dry chilly feed of air from the east, or something colder and unsettled in time, unsure. It does look like we are entering a rather quiet blocked set up, and models struggle to accurately pinpoint where core of heights might pivot.. so expect various themes where these are located, out west, NW, N, NE, E, centre, SE, take your pick.. but they dont look like settling to the south or SW, nothing overly mild therefore likely. 

Edited by damianslaw
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