Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Tim Bland]

To be honest I can’t decide if I want this in spring

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z ensemble mean looks really pleasant / anticyclonic with power to add beyond day 10...no suggestion that the Atlantic will break through at all once the high becomes established, even the op reinforces the anticyclonic theme at T+240 hours....whilst I’m a coldie, I’m actually looking forward to a spell of quiet settled weather with plenty of strengthening early spring sunshine but with some rather cold nights with a risk of frost and fog.  

Edited February 24, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Timmytour]

On 22/02/2021 at 16:15, Timmytour said:

Commendable work being undertaken by yourself, MW and others to feed the hope!

I'm looking at that picture and wondering yet if, against my own expectations, we can still get a development like March 1867 out of this, when the CET for the month was nearly 4C lower than the very warm February that preceded it (3.1C for March , 6.9C for Feb).

How it evolved from 23rd Feb through to 7th March that year.....

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

To be honest I can’t decide if I want this in spring

"Here's Johnny!!!!!!!"

It's a-coming!

 

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

To be honest I can’t decide if I want this in spring

Beware the ides of March... Certainly wouldn’t be out of place for the time of year, and potentially an easier route to a late cold spell than through the back door.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think I'm now on Day 100 of the cold chase!! I'm all alone,I'm isolated,its bleak....the food is running low...pretty soon water shortages will follow..Yesterday I put out an SOS to fellow coldies on a broken Radio Transmission Signal...and I only got 3 or 4 replies back meaning things are quickly in disintegration out there! Any of you out there....call me,let me know your still part of the search for cold conquest!! I don't hold out much hope though as many of you will now be looking to book an early cheap Holiday away from it all

My work continues without doubt...My aim is to bring joy into your cold searching Hearts!  

JOIN ME....IM BECOMING MORE AND MORE ISOLATED BY THE DAY! 

[MJB]

It really is all over , nothing to chase .

Just reading the MET update tells you Winter is gone.

All the best Matt

[Griff]

Just now, MJB said:

It really is all over , nothing to chase .

Just reading the MET update tells you Winter is gone.

All the best Matt

There are always models though, aren't there, and currently showing better than constant Westerly mild and wet... 

I predict a frost at the very least. 

[Allseasons-Si]

WOW UKMO!!!

144.

this is more amplified than the gfs and gfs//p.

Lol @MATTWOLVES,just read your post^,top post mate and don't worry you are not alone

 

Edited February 24, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Battleground Snow]

22 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

WOW UKMO!!!

144.

this is more amplified than the gfs and gfs//p.

Lol @MATTWOLVES,just read your post^,top post mate and don't worry you are not alone

 

Just logged in, thought there would have been more than one comment on that UKMO, definitely got potential, GFS doing it's spot the FI pattern and then drop it in the mid term,

Gem the middle ground at 144

 

Edited February 24, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

23 minutes ago, MJB said:

It really is all over , nothing to chase .

Just reading the MET update tells you Winter is gone.

All the best Matt

I was making a joke of this with Marco P on twitter last night..I think Exeter are getting tempted by my services...I actually offered to make the tea and sweep up! Although that could have been for @Griff  Are you telling me we are now without hope?? I've just spotted a small circle of -4C 850s about 50 miles large..small acorns and all that

[chris55]

UKMO 144 raising an eyebrow tonight....Im ready for spring, but if winter wants to make comeback then that's fine by me.

Edited February 24, 2021 by chris55

[I remember Atlantic 252]

last few GFS runs in FI been noticing potential snowy charts, no thank you to high pressure, want something interesting before April 12th

[minus10]

Well what's going on here with the GFS?. Today felt like a nice spring day. Being a gardener I have to advise clients about when to plant for spring. Many want to get going now but i always warn them about March and how unpredictable it can be. Although in FI if this were to verify then nice spring weather would be put on hold. The Daffs are already out though and as much as i like cold weather it would seem a shame if their life was cut short, although not unexpected. We shall see......

[Mike Poole]

GFS // has high pressure hanging around for most of the latter half of the run, T192, T384:

A dry and mostly warm spell upcoming.

Fair play to @MATTWOLVES for continuing to bang the drum for cold, but it is looking like a busted flush now, because I can’t see many drivers for it at all.  The strat influence has been and gone now, the MJO is in the COD, AAM might pick up a bit as per CFS, unlikely to be enough:

Oh well, by current standards, it was an above average winter here re snow, we had one good snowfall that was melting by mid day, and a few flurries apart from that.  And if that is above average, shows the perilous state of the UK winter these days...

Edited February 24, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Daniel*]

34 minutes ago, chris55 said:

UKMO 144 raising an eyebrow tonight....Im ready for spring, but if winter wants to make comeback then that's fine by me.

That is interesting from UKMO, wonder whether that amplification is coming from when MJO was in phase 7 - lag?

[Battleground Snow]

Hmmm next frame may be interesting on the ECM.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Hmmm next frame may be interesting on the ECM.

Thinking the same given the UKMO T144.

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM and UKMO at 144...

interesting as these are V similar.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168:

Is this realistic?  And will it develop into something interesting?  Not long to wait for the latter, 5 minutes!

Edited February 24, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Battleground Snow]

The plot thickens at 168, a bit more amplification here and we are in business.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

42 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS // has high pressure hanging around for most of the latter half of the run, T192, T384:

A dry and mostly warm spell upcoming.

Fair play to @MATTWOLVES for continuing to bang the drum for cold, but it is looking like a busted flush now, because I can’t see many drivers for it at all.  The strat influence has been and gone now, the MJO is in the COD, AAM might pick up a bit as per CFS, unlikely to be enough:

Oh well, by current standards, it was an above average winter here re snow, we had one good snowfall that was melting by mid day, and a few flurries apart from that.  And if that is above average, shows the perilous state of the UK winter these days...

Firstly Mike...I've been banging the drum for quite some time now...and tbh the skin as split...but not to worry I've just ordered an electric set from Amazon,so I can beat that drum even harder this time.. know way is Winter over....not on my watch....well technically its kind of finished but the hope lives on through March...And I can't complain this Winter...I've had falling snow on so many occasions...at one point from late December it was lying for over a week..

There is plenty of interesting ens from the 12s again...and I'm gonna keep beating that drum with my rhythm stick Fair play to the other chaps who continue to Hunt....you know who you are and you make me proud....Have ya self's a nice little tipple on me.

[Mike Poole]

T192:

Quite surprising, i can’t see what is driving this.  

[Griff]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

T192:

Quite surprising, i can’t see what is driving this.  

Purely my wishful thinking I would have presumed...

[Mike Poole]

T216, well nice to see a ridge but it doesn’t seem to be advecting cold towards the UK yet, so maybe a bit of a curate’s egg, this one?

[Griff]

Edit: ah... It's my birthday of course

Edited February 24, 2021 by Griff