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Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Just now, Mike Poole said:

Can’t say much about next winter, but should still be low solar, and maybe the EQBO might actually happen this time...a lot of reasons to be optimistic, and I don’t think whatever summer we may have will detract from that, or change it at all really.  

No, but during colder winter clusters the summers do tend to be a bit iffy, like those during the mid-80's and the 2007-2012 period.  However, I know that would not please many!

@Griffwho says I don't support the synoptics?! 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
28 minutes ago, Griff said:

What have I missed? 

I just messaged @MATTWOLVESto ask the same question! 

Whats up Doc....you mean the cold hunt is still on!  Surely not....what have I missed...not the bit about you being a pilot on twitter!

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-1-246.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
24 minutes ago, Don said:

Hmm, not sure that will bode well for winter 2021/22 but pointless to be really thinking that far ahead lol!

Come on Don...talk of this Summer is premature at this stage...talk of next winter super premature...And I'm pretty sure @Mike Poole was talking of last Summer being like 2018... I think I'm right Mike! Feel free to correct me....2018 summers won't come along that often...warming climate or not..they are usually spaced around 20 years apart if you go back to 76...then...95...then 2018 etc etc...Lets worry about the hear and now and not what conditions may be like in 3 or 4 Months..

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

The OP is very well supported at day 10, with over half of them backing it in terms of high pressure just to the north of the UK.

The cold pool modelled to drop into Eastern Europe is immense, it's just a case of whether it can make it to us or not.

Control attached at day 10

gensnh-0-1-240 (2).png

gensnh-0-0-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Signs on the fi ec op and ecp that the Canadian vortex is indeed drifting towards the pole (as per the strat guidance). does that then allow for a sustained n Atlantic sector height rise later week 2 ??.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
21 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

spacer.pngECM 0z for 5th March

Day 10 Op on the ECM 0z catches the eye a bit but is out on its own within the ensembles.

sheffield_ecmsd850.png

It's just ahead of the curve  

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Looking good for approx 10 days of settled UK HP, so dry and mild. The CET looks like being close to +2c above average (+1c ATM) for Feb! Who would have thought that?

London 0z 2m temps>graphe6_10000_304.86816860538966_151.2003196358728___.thumb.png.fc2497edd00804a583744e28991fae25.png

Signal for the tPV to regroup over the Arctic. D10 gfs 06z:

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.15c935fa91c8de11d76e8cddad7e18b7.png

No sign of any amplification from forcing and with the tPV circulating like that, then pretty average mundane weather post d10 with wedges the best chance of transient cooler interludes? Not ruling out another cold shot, but would say that we are heading towards the twilight of winter and we can now hopefully look forward to a warm late Spring and hot Summer to brighten up the gloom and boost the Economy?

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
13 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Come on Don...talk of this Summer is premature at this stage...talk of next winter super premature...And I'm pretty sure @Mike Poole was talking of last Summer being like 2018... I think I'm right Mike! Feel free to correct me....2018 summers won't come along that often...warming climate or not..they are usually spaced around 20 years apart if you go back to 76...then...95...then 2018 etc etc...Lets worry about the hear and now and not what conditions may be like in 3 or 4 Months..

 

 

 

Merely just an observation Matt of periods of colder winters in the past coinciding with cooler/wetter summers.  Not worried as like you say several months down the line is unknown!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

@ all my cold hunting crew,I was worried I may be the only one left posting potential cold outcomes,but the theme from the ens still holds some hope moving into March! My towel as just been washed and dried...am I going to launch it?? Not a chance,its been put firmly in the airing cupboard

gens-1-0-384.png

gens-3-0-300.png

gens-4-1-324.png

gens-6-0-384.png

gens-6-1-384.png

gens-7-0-264.png

gens-15-0-372.png

gens-17-1-372.png

gens-21-1-216.png

Okay Matt... I'll let you have leg back! image.thumb.png.eb1480f10743b0fcec84b60619b99beb.png  

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

This is blatantly stolen from JC (no the other one, Judah Cohen, see twitter thread)... 

Just leaving it here

20210223_144512.jpg

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Some nice charts today showing high pressure will very soon become predominantly in control.

I like charts with no rain anywhere in the u k..for a change! ☀️ 

F1D837F1-C57D-4952-BC3A-9EBDC5CADAB3.thumb.png.26c49ed6490c4fb2b8c196465b5ab206.png1B6D71CB-B20C-4F40-A260-C2301F82A92F.thumb.png.a8897cac6f30a4cf56f07d551bf87ddb.png2896D763-F535-489A-AE28-1EEECACA395F.thumb.png.b6c8b7b3593fa87b301955126ea6d540.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Unfortunately that would be a cold sleety mess, but if we can keep high pressure to the North, there is ample cold available in eastern Europe

Agreed, I'm trying to optimistically show some progression to less slush  

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Yes cold hunting crew the GFS does look on the cold side of things..we even manage some kind of diluted Estly...850s of -4C wouldn't cut it,but if we can keep Heights further North there would be colder air to tap into at some point...if it was to coincide with the final Strat demise we could get lucky...im still hopeful!! A matter of time before Exter come onboard!

gfs-0-246.png

gfs-0-264.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Yes cold hunting crew the GFS does look on the cold side of things..we even manage some kind of diluted Estly...850s of -4C wouldn't cut it,but if we can keep Heights further North there would be colder air to tap into at some point...if it was to coincide with the final Strat demise we could get lucky...im still hopeful!! A matter of time before Exter come onboard!

gfs-0-246.png

gfs-0-264.png

Always find though in this location anyway, it dosen't have to be as cold to snow in Mar/Apr and May, as it does in Dec to Feb

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Fear not coldies...this one will definitely deliver 

gens-11-1-252.png

gens-11-0-264.png

tenor-9.gif

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