Model output discussion 10/02/21

[The Northern Ramper]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Don't get me wrong, snow wouldn't stop me from being in the beer garden!  The problem is, I most likely would be on my own! 

It’s my birthday on the 14th, give us a shout

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ok folks the mean from ECM hints at a slight fall away towards day 10...and out to day 14 extended its eventually falls below 0C...so perhaps an hint or 2 of something colder later...whatever happens its been a blast...and I love you all...not in a funny way though

Edit...it falls away towards the Weekend also...then a slight uptick before falling away again i should have stated.

Edited February 22, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Don]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

I think the switch to warm will be sudden, but I expect it to be earlier this year than 2018, similar situation for the NH, strong SSW, effects now nearly over.  Not so positive for colder spells here, but I expect once the effects of the SSW are finished, a warm settled spell should soon take hold.  Last week in March or first week in April for me.  

 

Perhaps similar to March 2005 to an extent?  The first 10 days of the month were cold and wintry but it then became much milder and the second half of the month recorded temps in the 20's.  This more than cancelled out the cold weather earlier with a CET of 7.2C.

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Ramp said:

It’s my birthday on the 14th, give us a shout

You're on! 

[damianslaw]

Get past the next couple of days, and something quieter for many looks on the horizon as heights build in from the south becoming centred over the UK and probably edging eastwards. Atlantic stuck in the dolldrums. A return to dry sunny pleasant days and chilly nights. Nothing unusual - atlantic tends to go quiet as we enter Spring.

Models hinting at heights building further north eventually which would enable something colder from the east or north as we move through first half of March, again nothing unusual, at this time of year such synoptics have a higher chance of verifying than in the June - Feb period.

 

[nobble]

4 hours ago, Timmytour said:

Commendable work being undertaken by yourself, MW and others to feed the hope!

I'm looking at that picture and wondering yet if, against my own expectations, we can still get a development like March 1867 out of this, when the CET for the month was nearly 4C lower than the very warm February that preceded it (3.1C for March , 6.9C for Feb).

How it evolved from 23rd Feb through to 7th March that year.....

 

 

 

Massive straw clutch their ! 
I like it I’m in

[Singularity]

As someone who detests bitterly cold winds come March (after enjoying them in Feb!), it’s really bugging me how readily the models are bringing deep cold pools to the eastern half of Europe.

You see in March, with the zonal flow starting to relax, it’s usually more about the depth of cold on tap than whether the pattern will allow any easterly periods.

It’s also notable that the models have been trying to drop a low down to our east for about a week now. While it has been put back many times, it’s worth keeping a wary eye on it.

[legritter]

Hi gang ,I'm IN for another hunt .ECM Last few frames is showing the stepping stones to a possible cold shot ,if this can be repeated over the coming days i will treat all interested to a juicy ooozing Sausage Bap and ice cold STELLAS  with free brown sauce  ,  cheers gang .. 

[Sarahgreatchart]

Where can I find l’ombre range discussion

thinking April / beer garden / easter

 

# roadmap

[Mike Poole]

So, June then, when we might get our lives back, what will the weather hold for us then?

I turn to the trusty CFS in these dire situations, here Z500 anomalies averaged for the last 9 CFS runs for June:

All looking very good, and the reasons are in my opinion the end of the SSW influence, weak Atlantic influence as carry over from winter, Pacific relaxing from La Niña and increased AAM as a result.  And with the uncertainty around all of that, a following wind might help...but it ties in with my thoughts for summer which at the moment are along the lines of 2018...here’s hoping.

All the best

Mike

Edited February 22, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Battleground Snow]

Icon more amplified v it's earlier run,

[Cheshire Freeze]

44 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So, June then, when we might get our lives back, what will the weather hold for us then?

I turn to the trusty CFS in these dire situations, here Z500 anomalies averaged for the last 9 CFS runs for June:

All looking very good, and the reasons are in my opinion the end of the SSW influence, weak Atlantic influence as carry over from winter, Pacific relaxing from La Niña and increased AAM as a result.  And with the uncertainty around all of that, a following wind might help...but it ties in with my thoughts for summer which at the moment are along the lines of 2018...here’s hoping.

All the best

Mike

2018 was as the result of a displaced Azores HP which kept repeatedly ridging across the UK- that's why it was so dry.

The CFS looks more like last summer to me- potentially very warm but also wet and thundery at times. Notice on the NOAA anomalies the core of the HP is out east rather than S or SW of us.

Not saying a 2018 isn't possible but really it's a 1 in 30 year event. It requires a series of specific things to occur, much like a winter '63

Here is the tri-month mean

Edited February 22, 2021 by CreweCold

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

2018 was as the result of a displaced Azores HP which kept repeatedly ridging across the UK- that's why it was so dry.

The CFS looks more like last summer to me- potentially very warm but also wet and thundery at times. Notice on the NOAA anomalies the core of the HP is out east rather than S or SW of us.

Too early, far too early to argue about summer.  If there is a more thundery element all to the good from my perspective!  

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Too early, far too early to argue about summer.  If there is a more thundery element all to the good from my perspective!  

Thundery years tend to come in clusters

[Battleground Snow]

Well this is starting to get interesting now, not in super la la land either.

 

[Battleground Snow]

Para not bad either, 

Where are you @MATTWOLVES and @Griff?

 

[Mike Poole]

I had given up on it to be honest, but the signal for high lat blocking has come back, who knows if it will give a cold spell for us, but both pub run brothers are right at it at T222:

Interesting to see if this develops into anything more interesting?

Edited February 22, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Para not bad either, 

Where are you @MATTWOLVES and @Griff?

 

What have I missed? 

I just messaged @MATTWOLVESto ask the same question! 

[Don]

11 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Well this is starting to get interesting now, not in super la la land either.

 

If this is still showing in a week, I might be interested!

[Griff]

7 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Para not bad either, 

Where are you @MATTWOLVES and @Griff?

 

I thought you'd reposted the ECM 12z  

[Don]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

And with the uncertainty around all of that, a following wind might help...but it ties in with my thoughts for summer which at the moment are along the lines of 2018...here’s hoping.

All the best

Mike

Hmm, not sure that will bode well for winter 2021/22 but pointless to be really thinking that far ahead lol!

Edited February 22, 2021 by Don

[Allseasons-Si]

Knock Knock!!!

who's there

the beast...

seriously!!!,...i notice a trend in shifting the high further NW on the eps at day ten...

C'mon,...one last hurrah and i will thank the warmer weather afterwards

 

[Don]

Anything on tonight's EC46?

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

If this is still showing in a week, I might be interested!

New rule, if you don't support the synoptics you can't go sledging and have to sit in doors... 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Hmm, not sure that will bode well for winter 2021/22 but pointless to really be thinking that far ahead lol!

Can’t say much about next winter, but should still be low solar, and maybe the EQBO might actually happen this time...a lot of reasons to be optimistic, and I don’t think whatever summer we may have will detract from that, or change it at all really.