Model output discussion 10/02/21

[nobble]

4 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Still some eye catching ens and one of them going close to that good old Vortex bomb drop,to coin a phrase from the Express! I'm aware many are giving in the chase now,not me...another 4 weeks yet,I have a duty to my cold loving Family both on here and blood relatives to carry this chase on...Yes it may be indefatigable but I've got stamina baby

 

Keep going Matt always hoping

[Swave Snow]

2 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

@Battleground Snow @Griff @Allseasons-si @Mike Poole @Don @ all the remaining cold chasers plc....look at that cold pool out East...come on guys its Sunday...say a little prayer  

put me on the list please,  that model pic looks interesting 

[Tim Bland]

I’d love to keep dreaming of deep snow drifts and ice days but once you get into March it takes something very special. A starting point is to look for uppers dipping to -10 and I can’t see any chance of that I’m afraid. Still hopeful of seeing some falling snow in March but I’ve given up on deep,  crisp and even for now...

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, once established, the settled spell could last for some considerable time across southern u k?..I must also mention that there is some wintery potential within the 12z perturbations longer term..so coldies shouldn’t despair..  

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, once established, the settled spell could last for some considerable time across southern u k?..I must also mention that there is some wintery potential within the 12z perturbations longer term..so coldies shouldn’t despair..  

This post was so good I posted it twice..silly boy!Must stop drinking..must stop drinking..yeah right!  

Edited February 21, 2021 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Seriously cold chasing crew,we don't need state of the art sypnotics to deliver March cold...if there's no cold on tap perhaps we do!! But there appears to not be a shortage of it this Year...you just wait till the Vortex receives its last rites before much longer,and all that cold starts spilling out to lower latitudes! What we simply need is a build of Heights in the right place/places! This Winter as delivered a few shocks to a few places,dont be suprised to see it deliver one last parting shot before it takes its journey to the Southern Hemisphere..

We Still have a chance of something of note and a few of those ens back this status up...and I've only viewed half of them. All of you hardened coldies are doing me proud.. one last shot before Spring proper,then we dust ourselves down come October for the next hunt...hopefully this one was a precursor to something more severe later this year....and with such a remarkable Vaccine roll out,hopeful we will be able to enjoy the next one so much better!! For instance know restrictions on our travel plans...its all good.

Edit...film on Horror channel called 2012 Ice Age just started...its gerrin me in the mood now

Edited February 21, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Griff]

Ecm 12z more amplified than the 00z

But it's no gem... 

 

[Iceman2606]

A very spring like week coming up for many parts of the UK especially on Wednesday! Remember that the GFS tends to undercook temperatures so you can add a degree or 2 onto those charts!

[Allseasons-Si]

 to show that i am not just a coldie,here is some charts to show the mildies out there

Looking at the ECM at 192,...and it could be quite pleasant with light S>SE winds...

...but it's after day ten that i am interested in as there is quite a few gefs ens that bring the cold back in though i haven't the time to post them but @MATTWOLVES has already done that for me,cheers mate

coldies hang in there and don't put the white flag up the mast just yet

 

[Griff]

Slowly, slowly catching the amplified signal, 240 & //

[Cold Winter Night]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Slowly, slowly catching the amplified signal, 240 & //

The decrease in activity in this thread over a little more than one week is as big as the difference in weather here between last Sunday and today. Last weekend I went skating on the lakes nearby with subzero temps, today it was 16c with flowering snowdrops and crocuses and all the lakes and canals are fluid again.

Still, there are interesting things in the output for coldies.
It's funny how the charts you show would only take a few little tweaks to bring the deep cold West again.
Could it happen?

 

[stodge]

Evening all

It's hard to think just two weeks ago the evening output was promising an extended cold spell for the British Isles. 14 days later and the mildies have won the day and the rest of the month and, to be frank, on the basis of last night's output, there wasn't much hope for early March either with the current fairly settled and benign spell set to continue and extending to those areas which have been drenched in recent days.

Let's see what tonight's tea leaves tell us:

T+144 is February 27th, T+240 is March 3rd, T+312 is March 6th and T+384 is March 9th.

T+144:  (GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel respectively:

T+240 (GEM, ECM and GFS OP only):

GEM goes it alone tonight and that may or may not be significant. It's a model I've always rated and it has at times picked up trends before some of the other models. The key to the evolution  is at T+180 when the heights over north western Europe phase with heights further east and that enables the Scandinavian block to form. The other models keep too energy in the northern arm for that to happen and any attempt is quickly flattened with the HP sinking back towards the British Isles. Other than that, a very settled and benign outlook for most well into March. Some warm days but cold nights with frosts and perhaps fog especially if the core of the heights ends up over the British Isles.

Moving on, the T+312 and T+384 charts from GFS OP, Control and CFS this evening as Parallel seems to be on a go-slow:

T+312:

T+384:

Not without interest in the deepest realms of FO albeit very contrasting evolutions from GFS OP and Control. I actually found Control's evolution the more convincing while CFS keeps it all very anticyclonic though a prelude to quite a sharp colder snap around mid March.

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean T240, 1030 high slap bang over UK.  Once you get 1030 on the mean, it is as good as it gets to being nailed on at that range:

So looks like a dry and mild start to March now.

[Frostbite1980]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean T240, 1030 high slap bang over UK.  Once you get 1030 on the mean, it is as good as it gets to being nailed on at that range:

So looks like a dry and mild start to March now.

That will do me....perfect fishing weather

[Bradley in Kent]

Good evening all, as others have mentioned a real spring like feel to things both currently and in the forecasts. 

I've attached the latest GFS ensembles for London and can't believe how close they're all are! FI? What FI?!

Funny how just before or during cold spells the wheels can come off just like that, but during a mild spell you can basically bank it at 10 days. Looks like the mild is 'locked in and nailed', but at least it won't be super wet!

Obviously several weeks of cold potential to go, but let's face it any cold would only be a 48hr Northerly, which in March or April isn't that exciting....

[Griff]

Always impressed by the differences with gfs op vs parallel even fairly early on... 138

Edited February 21, 2021 by Griff

[Griff]

And at 180...

So just to make me look silly, they're fairly similar. Makes a change. 

[Griff]

And by day 10... I'll take the para, ta

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

And by day 10... I'll take the para, ta

Not much sign of a cold snap!

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Not much sign of a cold snap!

Agreed, and this run is looking very different to the previous. 

[DavidS]

Both GFS and ECM showing possibilities of high pressure pushing north of the UK. 

[Griff]

11 minutes ago, DavidS said:

Both GFS and ECM showing possibilities of high pressure pushing north of the UK. 

GEM, ecm and GFSP , gfs op on the other hand ...

[BlueHedgehog074]

Looking at various 00Z operational models at 144 hours, the GFS, GEM, ECMWF and UKMO are undertaking a mission - a mission to dry out the UK:

GFS

 

GEM

ECMWF

UKMO

All building heights and High Pressure over the UK. Few differences as to where the exact centre from the surface high settles, but all sticking to the same general theme. The Atlantic becomes sabotaged!

Supported also by the 6 to 10 day 500mb anomaly chart from the NOAA:

 

It does have a fairly strong upper South-Westerly flow through the UK, but generally slackens more to the South into mainland Europe and the heights are above average over us. 

This wet gloomy weather is admittedly getting tiring so be nice to see some drier brighter weather 

 

[Battleground Snow]

Para giving us something to look at to pass the lockdown bordom, still up for grabs where the high ends up in 10 days, although most favoured to be over the UK or just to the east.

[JoeShmoe]

Sunny, dry and early spring like conditions it looks as we go into March, I'll take that !