Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Griff]

Come on //, left a bit

Edited February 20, 2021 by Griff

[Methuselah]

Just now, Griff said:

Come one //, left a bit

Bernie, the bolt?

[Frosty.]

Just catching up, wow some amazing posts..Tamara, what a legend!..anyway, the Gfs 6z op didn’t really look wintery as such...unless this is the new definition of wintery?

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Just catching up, wow some amazing posts..Tamara, what a legend!..anyway, the Gfs 6z op didn’t really look wintery as such...unless this is the new definition of wintery?

The chart above does show an amplified pattern though, large area of expansive heights to the north, and low heights over Iberia.. so could lead to something other than Atlantic domination thereafter. Issue is heights to the SE.. but lots of possibilities on offer from such a chart.

[Battleground Snow]

23 minutes ago, Griff said:

Come on //, left a bit

Surprised you haven't mentioned the gem today Griff, a little bit colder and that would be snow for the south on this chart.

 

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Surprised you haven't mentioned the gem today Griff, a little bit colder and that would be snow for the south on this chart.

 

One feature of the winter has been the relatively stronger than average heights to our north, see chart above, the PV has stayed somewhat away from Iceland-Norweigien-east Greenland locale, or it may just be my observation, could be wrong. Will be interesting to see the pressure pattern ensemble for the winter, suspect it will show a weak trough over UK, weakish heights to the north.

Edited February 20, 2021 by damianslaw

[Griff]

8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Surprised you haven't mentioned the gem today Griff, a little bit colder and that would be snow for the south on this chart.

 

Well the curry won't cook itself (not a metaphor, I'm just a bit busy )... 

I was about to comment that heights are still a theme across the board, now over to the ECM...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Griff said:

Come on //, left a bit

Its not going to take much with those Heights to funnel in the much colder air is it Griff!! I would be suprised if Heights stuck to us for so long without any kind of movement...Still can't rule out the much colder scenario but at present I would put it as the least likely outcome! But there's a chance of a more favourable outcome here...thats my honest opinion and absolutely know bias whatsoever...

How do you become a Netweather legend?? We are just posting model charts,not doing blooming missionary work!! 

Edited February 20, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Methuselah]

28 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Its not going to take much with those Heights to funnel in the much colder air is it Griff!! I would be suprised if Heights stuck to us for so long without any kind of movement...Still can't rule out the much colder scenario but at present I would put it as the least likely outcome! But there's a chance of a more favourable outcome here...thats my honest opinion and absolutely know bias whatsoever...

How do you become a Netweather legend?? We are just posting model charts,not doing blooming missionary work!! 

I've discovered your real identity, Matt:   

[phil nw.]

Well i have already had enough of this gloomy and sometimes wet Atlantic stuff and we have it for a few more days it seems.

Next Tuesday's fax shows we have just rid ourselves of this weekend's low with it's fronts as they swept north into the Norwegian sea.The story continues though as yet another low  comes in,all within the deep extended trough which has dug as far south as the Canaries. 

Signs that a ridge developing in the w.Atlantic following that mid-week system is what the models expect to build into a high by the end of the week.

 

Hopefully that will settle things down and allow some drier weather to welcome in March and hang around for a few days.The south looks like seeing the biggest influence with weak fronts just glancing across the north at times.

A welcome break from this unsettled pattern with all the models heading that way for the end of next week. 

[Frosty.]

The ECM 12z operational trends more settled across southern u k at least, which will be a relief following all the flooding and gales etc....colder day 10..yawn?  ..I would rather have one of Legritter’s sausage baps!

And a Stella!..cheers Gang

 

 

Edited February 20, 2021 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It appears the GFS 12z ens are stuck on meteociel....so heres a little one from the Gem...yeh its fi but I did notice the control run was pretty cold also..just a little taster of what could or could have been!

@General Cluster that made me laugh.. I thought it was the tin man from wizard of oz first..im heartless

Edited February 20, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[stodge]

Evening all

Looks like another quiet day on the thread so I suspect tonight's output is unexciting but we'll give it a go as always. The star last night was Parallel which offered an extended cold spell into early March but looked on its own though ECM was also able to project heights into Scandinavia. The overall medium to longer term message was anticyclonic to start the new month.

T+144 tonight takes us to Friday 26th, T+240 to March 2nd, T+312 to March 5th and T+384 to March 8th.

Starting with the shorter range charts for GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel respectively:

T+144:

T+240:

A difference tonight between the American models and the rest this evening after T+144. Parallel is the most bullish about building the anticyclone over the British Isles but all extend a ridge NE from the Azores to combine with existing heights over central Europe so it looks as though there could be some welcome relief from the incessant rain in the west. From there, GFS OP and Parallel both build heights to the north east while GEM ridges from north of the Azores to Scandinavia but ECM keeps the heights to the south and west and brings a strong trough through Scandinavia and a brief push of colder PM air especially for northern and eastern Britain by T+240.

Moving on and it's GFS OP, Parallel and CFS for T+312 and T+384:

T+312:

T+384:

Not much for cold fans to get excited about to be honest, The signal for a high-latitude block to the north east advecting a new push of colder air from the east seems to have gone for now. Indeed. the GFS models seem more interested in re-establishing the PV in its usual place (GEM does this a bit earlier). CFS holds the PV back for now and there are signs in far FI on both OP and Parallel of a new attempt at warming but the PV still looks large albeit not as cold as in mid winter (again, as you'd expect).

[danthetan]

Not much to get excited about Im afraid if its of the cold bias. The general direction seems to be high pressure building over or near to UK thereafter a trough dropping into Scandinavia more favourably ECM allowing a colder northerly flow nothing notable more likely to be a toppler.

Edited February 20, 2021 by danthetan

[Don]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

The ECM 12z operational trends more settled across southern u k at least, which will be a relief following all the flooding and gales etc....colder day 10..yawn?  ..I would rather have one of Legritter’s sausage baps!

And a Stella!..cheers Gang

 

 

I think a cheese sandwich and a shandy is more appropriate with the rather mundane outlook! 

[Methuselah]

Just now, Don said:

I think a cheese sandwich and a shandy is more appropriate with the rather mundane outlook! 

Or a Potnoodle!

[Don]

Just now, General Cluster said:

Or a Potnoodle!

Nah, even that's too adventurous! 

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z clusters, T192-T20:

Looks like the UK might well be under high pressure for this period!

T264-T360:

In the extended timeframe, a more diverse range of possibilities abounds, and in terms of edging towards a final burst of winter, clusters 1, 2 and 3 hold at least some interest.

 

[legritter]

All this talk of Food  ,Ecm day 10 as some interest ,just waiting for GFS to bring in the Beast ,untill then enjoy this BAP .

[ANYWEATHER]

A Welcome change of weather as far as I'm concerned from the relentless wet windy weather alternating with fridgid cold this Winter. High pressure for at least the southern half of the country initially so looking like cold frosty nights with some warm sunshine by day as we move into March in like a Lamb and perhaps out like a lion.,,!!! Strong Diurnal temperatures at this time of year , cold frosty nights and warm sunny days from this setup can give us a 20 plus temperature change ...I Welcome a big change in our Synoptics !!! Okay its not exciting weather but it's a nice big change A little bit of Spring  coming.....!

[Mike Poole]

Pub runs, both of them at T180:

You’d have to back the // here, given the latest influence of the SSW which it will so better resolve given the increased vertical resolution, and it is leading to the more amplified solution yet again.  

Edited February 20, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

OK, i think I have seen enough of the 18z brothers to now call time on winter.  The chance of a renewed cold spell has been diluted on recent runs.  It probably isn’t going to happen now.

It has been a great chase, with the SSW and everything, snow for many although only once significantly here.  

But now my attention turns to heat, and I think we are in a good position there going into the warm season, long range modelling is supportive of a decent summer, I will develop this theme in my posts over the next weeks, I’m sure. 

But to coldies, I think that is it for this year.  It has been fun talking so much more than usual on here throughout winter because of the lockdown.  You guys and girls are the best!!

All the very best, Mike.

[Don]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

But to coldies, I think that is it for this year.  It has been fun talking so much more than usual on here throughout winter because of the lockdown.  You guys and girls are the best!!

All the very best, Mike.

It's official, the winter roller coaster is now closed until late November......

[WINTRY WALES]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

OK, i think I have seen enough of the 18z brothers to now call time on winter.  The chance of a renewed cold spell has been diluted on recent runs.  It probably isn’t going to happen now.

It has been a great chase, with the SSW and everything, snow for many although only once significantly here.  

But now my attention turns to heat, and I think we are in a good position there going into the warm season, long range modelling is supportive of a decent summer, I will develop this theme in my posts over the next weeks, I’m sure. 

But to coldies, I think that is it for this year.  It has been fun talking so much more than usual on here throughout winter because of the lockdown.  You guys and girls are the best!!

All the very best, Mike.

Well played Mike....enjoyed all your posts this year! Fab hunt for all of us. Some ding dongs between seasoned pros...in my eyes never a bad thing as it shows the quality of the forum. Never the less lots have enjoyed a great winter, for myself and the minority it’s been frustrating. But we can all look forward to a nice spring and summer. Flush this lemon disease out and all get together in 6 moths to start the BOOM chase once again. Thank you Mike and everyone else. Nostar 

[danthetan]

Anyway...... sorry to Interrupt the winter funeral on the 20th of february. Yes we are going through a mild phase which to be fair is expected as we've been very fortunate this winter.  My thoughts are we will see a few more days of above average temperatures as the High pressure builds from the south later next week it will cut off the supply of warm air and as the days are getting longer so we will continue to see temperatures into double digits but also falling at night to low singe figures. After that a trough dropping into Scandinavia coinciding with vortex in canada on the move which could allow high pressure to pull west and give a northerly.