Model output discussion 10/02/21

[phil nw.]

9 minutes ago, Griff said:

180 op vs //

Differences as expected, so FI is probably tomorrow...  

Edit: whilst I'm waiting for latest gem to roll out, here's the gem 180 from the 00z, a bit gfsp like I'd say... 

Yes Griff the parallel is more amplified.it's only one instance but i wonder if this will continue to show up the flattening bias of the current gfs as it beds in.

Edited February 19, 2021 by phil nw.

[Griff]

14 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFS 12z op vs para... 144 hrs

I think these will turn out quite differently to each other! 

GEM 12z at 144

[Griff]

9 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes Griff the parallel is more amplified.it's only one instance but i wonder if this will continue to show up the flattening bias of the current gfs as it beds in.

It's certainly been more desirable over the last couple of months! Cue the "it's not ready for prime time!" complaints

Edited February 19, 2021 by phil nw.
amending my post

[Griff]

Parallel day 10

[phil nw.]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

It's certainly been more desirable over the last couple of months! Cue the "it's not ready for prime time!" complaints

Irrc it will be on board mid-March as the operational run.

The better ridging on the // run bringing colder air in as the high establishes.It is within the ens envelop up to day 10.It's whether anything can develop from that.

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Irrc it will be on board mid-March as the operational run.

The better ridging on the // run bringing colder air in as the high establishes.It is within the ens envelop up to day 10.It's whether anything can develop from that.

Probably at the very end and pushing its luck I'd imagine. Gfs op and gem 12z op both much flatter (hence the lack of supporting uploaded charts from me ). 

[Griff]

JFF gfs op at 300 hrs... Some here would take that no doubt 

Edited February 19, 2021 by Griff

[Griff]

And gem at 240... 

So all in all, still a signal for heights... 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

And gem at 240... 

So all in all, still a signal for heights... 

Ukmo, gem and para, all suggest high pressure is going to be in and around the UK by late February, we can still get the cold shot if the orientation falls right into March

[phil nw.]

Yes they all still support a high but surface conditions would be clearer and colder later in week 2 on the //.The high being just that bit further north.

 

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo, gem and para, all suggest high pressure is going to be in and around the UK by late February, we can still get the cold shot if the orientation falls right into March

 

3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes they all still support a high but surface conditions would be clearer and colder later in week 2 on the //.The high being just that bit further north.

 

Cold and snow would be the dream but cold and clear with sunny days works too for me! 

I'll put it in the diary

[Frosty.]

There’s growing support for high pressure to become the dominant feature during early March, especially across southern u k according to the GEFS 6z mean..which would mean generally settled with plenty of early spring sunshine...it could be worse!

 

[Tim Bland]

Nice

[Chesil View]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Nice

Wow. And only another 60 model runs to get through to reel this baby in.

[Timmytour]

On 18/02/2021 at 11:26, Timmytour said:

While I wouldn't rule out a sustained period of mild south-westerlies, I just don't see any kind of Bartlett possibility tbh. I think the pattern of this winter's weather has been characterized by the continual shifting of high pressure systems as opposed to them taking up residency in any one particular spot nearby.

At certain times in the past there's been a pretty swift and dramatic move of high pressure from south of the UK that cuts across the UK and relocates over Scandinavia.  I'm not saying that will happen, but there is that kind of 'feel' about the fluidity of the atmosphere at this time that certainly makes me think its possible for the models to suddenly start coming up with such runs.

I still believe there is fluidity particularly with high pressure systems in the atmospheric pattern over this winter, maybe a consequence of the SSW, that the models are struggling to deal with.

While I wouldn't mind a high pressure system sitting over the UK as some runs are suggesting, I think such a positioning will be short-lived.  I know that high pressure wants to get over Scandinavia.  I know it!   I can feel it in my bones!   It may only be for a brief holiday, but it's determined to get there!!!  I'm just waiting for the models to get to grips with my gut feeling!

[syed2878]

44 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

There’s growing support for high pressure to become the dominant feature during early March, especially across southern u k according to the GEFS 6z mean..which would mean generally settled with plenty of early spring sunshine...it could be worse!

 

 I do agree with you and the charts you have posted these look like they are in line with Metts latest thoughts gone is the cold and wintry hazards from their extended Outlook

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Wow. And only another 60 model runs to get through to reel this baby in.

Bust at the first hurdle - big outlier.

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Bust at the first hurdle - big outlier.

Would be far more useful to compare with ensembles from a complete Parallel suite, rather than the existing op wouldn't it? 

[Griff]

Ecm op at 168 more gfsp and gem than gfs op... 

Likewise ecm //

Edited February 19, 2021 by Griff

[Griff]

Ecm and // continue the heights theme 

[Don]

2 hours ago, Griff said:

JFF gfs op at 300 hrs... Some here would take that no doubt 

Those who want to tidy up the garden! 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Those who want to tidy up the garden! 

I think it's looking quite possible. A sunny spell could be on the cards. 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

I think it's looking quite possible. A sunny spell could be on the cards. 

I know but nowt exciting and does not look great today for those of us hoping for a late cold snap.  The chances of that seem to be quickly fading now.

Edited February 19, 2021 by Don

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

I know but nowt exciting and does not look great today for those of us hoping for a late cold snap.  The chances of that seem to be quickly fading now.

See my reply a couple of hours ago... Cold and snow is the dream, cold with sunny days will certainly do. 

[Griff]

Take your pick

Edited February 19, 2021 by Griff