Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs finishes with this beauty,...deep -NAO that's for sure.

[Don]

Any update on the EC46 tonight?

[Mike Poole]

I’ve hinted on here a number of times the SSW isn’t done with us yet, takes more than 2 months, and this one was particularly strong with a couple more reversals of the winds at 60N, 10 hPa.  You could look at the strat charts and say ‘nothing to see here’ now because the strat has recovered.  But we don’t live in the strat.  

I’ll post this again from yesterday:

The top of the strat is back to normal but we might get one blast at the surface with reverse winds?  Well today says YES to that, and in our location too this time, and while it might be the last rites of the SSW, ironically it might benefit UK coldies the most...we will see...

[legritter]

Beast from the far east , crikey i need to stock up on sausages and baps. Yes good charts today ,but we need to keep in Control  SNOOOOooow .

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Any update on the EC46 tonight?

Nothing too exciting, but at least it has general heights around the UK and then in the north Atlantic after.

Weeks 2 and 3 below.

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Nothing too exciting, but at least it has general heights around the UK and then in the north Atlantic after.

Weeks 2 and 3 below.

A shame week two doesn't look more interesting and week three looks a bit west based NAO.  However, could look a lot worse!

[icykev]

6 minutes ago, legritter said:

Beast from the far east , crikey i need to stock up on sausages and baps. Yes good charts today ,but we need to keep in Control  SNOOOOooow .

Dont forget the stellas pal✌

[Allseasons-Si]

Fantastic outputs from both the gfs and gfs//p tonight,...and here is the parra,it keeps us in an easterly from day ten right to the end,...OUTSTANDING.

[Battleground Snow]

Unfortunately, the OP only has support from the control and para, but I'll be excited to check the models for the first time in a while in the morning.

 

[Don]

17 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Unfortunately, the OP only has support from the control and para, but I'll be excited to check the models for the first time in a while in the morning.

 

Indeed, far too early to get excited yet!  At the moment just nice viewing, especially after recent days but hopefully support will grow.

[Don]

Another reason not to get too excited yet is that this scenario is not really supported by tonight's EC46.

[DavidS]

0z gfs Op and para not having any of it. Any attempts of a ridge going north is quickly squashed on the para

Edited February 19, 2021 by DavidS
Corrected

[NewEra21]

While the GFS op wasn't great, all is not lost. 

[bluearmy]

7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It did in 18.

almost March .....yes ......
 

[bluearmy]

Ref the chances of an easterly in early March - last month we saw the ec control pushing out a few beasterly week 2 runs. I dont recall that thus far for the upcoming two weeks 

[Chesil View]

5 hours ago, Don said:

Another reason not to get too excited yet is that this scenario is not really supported by tonight's EC46.

That'll be the the same EC 46 that had us in the freezer right through February will it?

JFF at this stage but the 18z sensational op evolution  from last night is still there this morning as perturbation No 2 on the 0z ensembles.

Edited February 19, 2021 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Griff]

The gem 00z is looking far less flat (Atlantic had been a deep low all week). To me at least, this is encouraging. 

Edit: it hadn't occurred to me to bother checking the 850s, just for fun, as Daniel, Mattwolves and others have mentioned recently, deep cold is not far away... Not that I'm saying this would reach us. 

Edited February 19, 2021 by Griff

[Tim Bland]

Shame to see GFS and GFSp drop the dream charts they were showing yesterday afternoon & evening.  If we’re going to see this easterly in early March we need to see some momentum in the models soon. GEFS are still not buying it with only a couple (out of 33) getting anywhere near to -10 uppers. We also need to see the extended EPS buying into it soon.

[mushymanrob]

No change on these charts, whilst theres a positive pressure anomaly over the UK, theres also a moderate westerly upper flow. There does appear to be some blocking to our North, but theres no beasterly in the timeframe this covers and its unlikely to be that far out. Interestingly, this covers the period that @Mike Poole s NAM chart illustrates , along with a minor easterly  around March 1st . This chart is not on board for and Easterly over the UK , but maybe theres one over Southern France and Spain?

[Timmytour]

Worth remembering at this stage that the freeze we had in February was first picked out by odd GFS runs from T300 plus.

Chances are I think that further occasional runs of GFS in the next few days. not just the pub run, will revisit the theme of a BFTE in early March.

It will remain to be seen as it comes within T240 whether first ECM and then UKMO toy with the idea as well.

Whether or not it comes to pass or not is a different matter....I'll wait to hear the analysis of the likes of Mushy and JH on the anomaly charts before I start raising my hopes too high   (actually I'll probably raise my hope too high anyway....their analysis will only temper my expectations!)  

[Don]

3 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

That'll be the the same EC 46 that had us in the freezer right through February will it?

It would have still been nice to have seen some support from the EC46.

[phil nw.]

A rise in pressure and something drier for the UK still looks the most likely but it looks like another week or so of westerlies to endure first.

The 2 mean charts at day 8

Whether this can evolve into anything cold from a Scandi.high remains outside the reliable really.Like the 18z gfs last night we see the odd operational run throw out this evolution but without support in the ensembles or the following 00z runs.

There are still signs in the ens. of some modest ridging of hts towards the ne in the anomalies.I wouldn't write it off whilst we see that.This would be a setup that could still evolve later on but as yet no there is no support for anything more than a mid-latitude high situated around the UK. area.

.

[damianslaw]

20 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

A rise in pressure and something drier for the UK still looks the most likely but it looks like another week or so of westerlies to endure first.

The 2 mean charts at day 8

Whether this can evolve into anything cold from a Scandi.high remains outside the reliable really.Like the 18z gfs last night we see the odd operational run throw out this evolution but without support in the ensembles or the following 00z runs.

There are still signs in the ens. of some modest ridging of hts towards the ne in the anomalies.I wouldn't write it off whilst we see that.This would be a setup that could still evolve later on but as yet no there is no support for anything more than a mid-latitude high situated around the UK. area.

.

Would bring some much needed brighter weather at least to many. 

[Griff]

GFS 12z op vs para... 144 hrs

I think these will turn out quite differently to each other! 

[Griff]

7 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFS 12z op vs para... 144 hrs

I think these will turn out quite differently to each other! 

180 op vs //

Differences as expected, so FI is probably tomorrow...  

Edit: whilst I'm waiting for latest gem to roll out, here's the gem 180 from the 00z, a bit gfsp like I'd say... 

Edited February 19, 2021 by Griff