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Model output discussion 10/02/21

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Now we’re getting there, pub run T270:

1D3DA152-F923-4B62-8826-9CC0A6DB0456.thumb.png.8d31d2850487a17e753d7ef60c224d4c.png8E42B4A7-021E-402B-9384-7C1F568D2053.thumb.png.ee3e50f24ed5dd8d9acedf576781a40c.png

A lot of cold there to come if the angle is right, looking good on this run....it doesn’t matter, by the way, if this is the result of a smaller downwelling from the strat, if it nails the UK it is ok with me!

Nice looking charts there!  Great to see this thread gathering some momentum again!

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

Incoming on the gfs/p...

gfs-0-276.thumb.png.233b98b4ef79f0f0c3558afda8188e6a.pnggfs-1-276.thumb.png.01c3dcd698b53e34c1e2571551edffa1.pnggfs-3-276.thumb.png.2ba8b2a42b1cfdfbdccd878c27826a7d.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

Same on the gfs...

gfs-0-312.thumb.png.7b76fef592e5c2d42b3e4d5971909adb.pnggfs-1-312.thumb.png.55e68e6e03f2ee8327d5fd07879ef599.pnggfs-3-312.thumb.png.7a36c3511e56a1572030de4230caff5d.png

flock me!!!

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Trom Enthusiast

Trom

Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Want to go to bed but wit( two pub run specials ongoing ........

Encouraging that ECM showed a similar direction earlier too.

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
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Posted

Parallel run is a stonker. There definitely seems to be a growing signal for an easterly during the first week of March now.

863FA4DC-EE72-4B76-85DA-9BE6F6182FC3.thumb.png.26b52ce6e1e44abc01dec3d76515af20.pngB54C64C6-98E0-4CDF-87A4-D9B6E4155E77.thumb.png.a56d2e9d05ebdbc9aa8a47a822b004aa.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

the gfs at 330 showing a retrogression of the high,...northerly incoming after an easterly...

gfsnh-0-330.thumb.png.559bf066deee6cbece1834604df20439.png

all just for fun but good fun all the same.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

We do realise that this isn’t going to happen in March ?   Just making sure ......
 

image.thumb.png.c25c3b1c9f7687c453628556f6968bb8.png

It could i think given the depth of cold waiting in the wings, but it would take pretty much a direct hit - well we had one in 2018 didn’t we.  

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

image.thumb.png.061c76491b13a1a8b1e99c02fa719120.png
 

There’s no early breakdown or ‘Mediterranean’ mixing out on that chart. Atlantic is nowhere to be seen.   I actually think this is on the table

 

BFTP

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We do realise that this isn’t going to happen in March ?   Just making sure ......
 

image.thumb.png.c25c3b1c9f7687c453628556f6968bb8.png

you never know mate,...it could happen☺️

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We do realise that this isn’t going to happen in March ?   Just making sure ......
 

image.thumb.png.c25c3b1c9f7687c453628556f6968bb8.png

No I don’t realise...

 

BFTP

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted (edited)

Good god I've done myself an injury...I've fell off me chair due to the shock of the GFS para..it was worth the bruise on me backside though...that last Beast was a pest..this one's a bloody monster...

-16s incoming 

gfs-1-282.png

gfs-1-300.png

tenor-9.gif

Edit..anyone who thinks this can't happen....well it can...it did in 2018! And early March can be potent!! I bet many residents in Dallas would have told you last week that you were mad if you would have told them -20C is coming in a few days!! Expect the unexpected and you won't be disappointed!

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We do realise that this isn’t going to happen in March ?   Just making sure ......
 

image.thumb.png.c25c3b1c9f7687c453628556f6968bb8.png

It did in 18.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

I like how the parra just keeps on going with the easterly with -16 uppers...incredible

gfs-1-330.thumb.png.de8dd8c02390e2aa8a61855a39dfcb74.png

the gfs is right on que when i said that there would be a northerly afterwards...

 

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Frostbite1980 Community Regular

Frostbite1980

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted (edited)

Para about to go from scandi high to greenland hight in the final stages of the run

Edited by Frostbite1980
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Good stuff from both GFS runs ..let’s hope the GEFS start catching on! 

4E8DCD59-7368-4DEA-B2C6-315BCE58F18D.png

A32E2E55-E438-4A15-A83E-F6FE1B0FB6C7.png

D55ADA27-5AF6-41D7-A900-375B97BA0087.png

I’m sure they will, this switch was evident on the ECM clusters on the 12z.  The Atlantic spell looks a red herring,  it looks like a whole model switch - to something some of us on here had been predicting for a while.  

// has -16s in now (T336), GFS a little slower to the party:

3B28FE99-C0DF-41C8-B31B-738438E7237B.thumb.png.d236df268fc89c84c942f2034ee54f60.png9316C8DD-4498-4108-A954-48513A0AC46E.thumb.png.e9c831cfd0d5e4698fd5782fde5f3f30.png

Edited by Mike Poole
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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

Look at op and para on NH profile and the t850s....the expanse of deep cold is just extraordinary....Grand minima imo is showing it’s hand now
 

BFTP

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The control run has lower heights over Iberia at 192 so this should be a good run too...

gensnh-0-1-192.thumb.png.4ea0d7d15f121431e55e0984d02a948d.png

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