Model output discussion 10/02/21

[PiscesStar]

25 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

We had 3 warmings. The first on jan 5th was pretty significant! Then a 2nd warming followed shortly, we then encountered a 3rd lesser warming during early Feb...the affects can take several weeks to manifest down to the surface,thats if they indeed do downwell! The 10 days you mention are usually the result of a QTR..The Estly that occurred last week was 4 weeks after the 1st initial warming,but this event may also have been responsible for the Madrid snowstorms..it may also be responsible for events in the USA and just recently Greece and Turkey! 

Closer to home and these models are now beginning to toy with the idea of Heights...the 6Z a Scandy one! Things starting to look a little more interesting in my opinion! 

Thank you Matt. I'm sticking with first week March for cold 

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, Snowfish2 said:

Thank you Matt. I'm sticking with first week March for cold 

Yes, but which year?

[mb018538]

27 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Personally, and i might be wrong, but this final downwelling only looks like a minor affair and would only give a normal short spell of an Easterly. Going off this... unless im miles away from understanding it! lol
 

Bit early for anything to do with final warmings and downwellings! All this shows is a recovery in the PV and westerlies in the upper strat layers that is starting to filter down weakly to the trop towards the end of Feb. Looks a temporary affair though, with some surface +ve anoms soon returning into March - perhaps why we're not seeing any zonal weather forecast for the next 2-3 weeks at least, and some interesting NWP charts appearing again! Effects of all the SSW likely to be felt further into March I feel...

Charts below are now 3 days out of date but still give a good general feel I reckon:

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z Mean / Moyenne...there’s still a signal, perhaps even a stronger signal than recent days ...?...for early March to become more generally settled / anticyclonic / pleasant!  

Edited February 18, 2021 by Jon Snow

[nick sussex]

I’d remain dubious of any potential colder spell until the ECM shows any consistent inclination to develop a more amplified ridge ne.

The last week has seen the odd op run try and build that but that’s subsequently as far as it’s got .

The next runs then look less interested and that’s been the pattern of the last week .

Even if you do get a ridge ne you’d need a decent cold pool to deliver this late on so you’d need that more amplified ridge otherwise the cold will be directed too far south .

There’s not a great deal of time to play with now given we’ll soon be into March . The GFS stars to develop more interest around day 7 so if this is to lead anywhere we need that to countdown and not remain marooned post day 7 for what’s seemed like the last week .

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

45 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’d remain dubious of any potential colder spell until the ECM shows any consistent inclination to develop a more amplified ridge ne.

The last week has seen the odd op run try and build that but that’s subsequently as far as it’s got .

The next runs then look less interested and that’s been the pattern of the last week .

Even if you do get a ridge ne you’d need a decent cold pool to deliver this late on so you’d need that more amplified ridge otherwise the cold will be directed too far south .

There’s not a great deal of time to play with now given we’ll soon be into March . The GFS stars to develop more interest around day 7 so if this is to lead anywhere we need that to countdown and not remain marooned post day 7 for what’s seemed like the last week .

 

Good post Nick,for me it's always a case of we are in the game till that 3rd week of March what some refer to as Spring,I refer to as late Winter..Annual temperature cycles and the fact its the start of the calender month which makes it easier for the met to keep records! So for me we will always remain in the game to this point. GFS perhaps toying with the idea of some Heights to the N/NE, i would now like to see ECM come onboard with the idea,and for all the models to start showing this signal more strongly by mid next week at the latest! Not much to ask for is it good man

Edited February 18, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Allseasons-Si]

Just a quick one before i start my shift...

the ext EPS show some interest

have a good day all and i will catch you all tonight

 

[Battleground Snow]

Ensembles are definitely trending colder into March, we need alot more of them breaching the -10 line if want something of note, and not just a bog standard cold spell.

If we can just get the high to drift north, on the below anomaly chart, you can see the route to cold/snow

Edited February 18, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

How do you like your ens in the morning....I like mine with a deep shade of blue!

@Battleground Snow judah just informed me he thinks March could come in more like a lion and says the UK could definitely get a colder spell at this point.. one to keep an eye on.

Edited February 18, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Don]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

How do you like your ens in the morning....I like mine with a deep shade of blue!

judah just informed me he thinks March could come in more like a lion and says the UK could definitely get a colder spell at this point.. one to keep an eye on.

 

There 'may' be some good news on the roller coaster front later.  Watch this space!

 

[Don]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

I’d remain dubious of any potential colder spell until the ECM shows any consistent inclination to develop a more amplified ridge ne.

I'm always dubious about any colder spell in the UK, whether the ECM is on board or not.......

[Battleground Snow]

Icon toying with some Atlantic amplification as we end February.

 

[Timmytour]

3 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Good post Nick,for me it's always a case of we are in the game till that 3rd week of March what some refer to as Spring,I refer to as late Winter..Annual temperature cycles and the fact its the start of the calender month which makes it easier for the met to keep records! So for me we will always remain in the game to this point. GFS perhaps toying with the idea of some Heights to the N/NE, i would now like to see ECM come onboard with the idea,and for all the models to start showing this signal more strongly by mid next week at the latest! Not much to ask for is it good man

I still think April has a chance to deliver snow, though I know what you are mean because the hunt for cold and snow is always quite dismissive of the transitory nature that will almost inevitably accompany such conditions in April. For some reason I am quit optimistic of there being a white Easter this year.  Normally I would rather they were warm and sunny, but since I very much expect i will again be denied the chance of spending the holiday sipping a nice cold cider while  sitting in a pub garden soaking up the sun, I'd quite happily accept going for a walk in falling snow as a substitute, even if it is wet!   

[Griff]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon toying with some Atlantic amplification as we end February.

 

Interestingly the gem 12z seems a tad more amplified too... 

[Sunny76]

8 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I still think April has a chance to deliver snow, though I know what you are mean because the hunt for cold and snow is always quite dismissive of the transitory nature that will almost inevitably accompany such conditions in April. For some reason I am quit optimistic of there being a white Easter this year.  Normally I would rather they were warm and sunny, but since I very much expect i will again be denied the chance of spending the holiday sipping a nice cold cider while  sitting in a pub garden soaking up the sun, I'd quite happily accept going for a walk in falling snow as a substitute, even if it is wet!   

I think if Easter is in April, the chance of a warmer Easter increases. It's been the case since at least 1980.

[Battleground Snow]

The beast is lurking on the GFS OP in early March.

[Griff]

I've been enjoying the peace and quiet of the last few days (yes code for less interesting model output) but keeping an eye on things in FI. 

The GFS is starting to show interest the right side of 300 hours and the GEM is now showing some amplification... 

Here's the latest at day 10 vs the previous. 

[Matt H]

Interesting GFS 12z this afternoon. Another notable cold spell is definitely possible during early March!

[phil nw.]

There's pretty good support for the pressure rise from around day 7.Both gfs/ecm ens show this on their earlier graphs and now we are seeing this again on the 12z.

Whether this will lead onto something like a Scandi.high remains a possibility.At least it will be a welcome change from this Atlantic rain and wind and should bring something drier with maybe night frosts depending on it's position.

[Battleground Snow]

Snowfest in deep FI on the OP, para is a bit meh though.

 

Edited February 18, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Tim Bland]

Wow what a  beast!!

[minus10]

The face of a serpant eying the uk for a meal!!

 

 

[Tim Bland]

Boom what can possibly go wrong ️

[MATTWOLVES 3]

What i actually think is GFS is doing what it did prior to the last cold snap...picking up a signal for Heights to the North bringing a much colder spell...could be the final warming being picked up on now.. That run becomes insane towards the end.

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Boom what can possibly go wrong ️

As I'm almost in the sweet spot, NOTHING will go wrong!