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Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just been looking through the GEFS 12z perturbations and longer term into early March there some hints of a return to wintery weather in varying degrees ?.....so perhaps it’s not game over yet?...the mean still suggests we could see high pressure or at least strong ridging in the vicinity of the u k early next month following quite a changeable / unsettled spell with temperatures alternating between cooler / milder...the best of the fine spells further s / se / e.

EB71C381-FE06-42C7-9CA8-D0D45AADB279.thumb.png.5f77e04186dcd4b4f1fb08ae0e41aa9e.png1563B808-3399-4567-A0E0-6A50E311BFEE.thumb.png.02717d58e4ab2f2d4e3793530a4eb572.pngD55A84EB-26D1-4CDD-AC85-FDDE8E82C223.thumb.png.2566322795d12298591cd3f28e7735ab.pngC4C7FBE0-78A9-4132-ADA5-EF58DB229682.thumb.png.5b58d79455071aff43fe26c33b2d067c.png0D55592F-415A-4587-86E8-BE94F6B1583F.thumb.png.80a9a0e055ca33b7befaae8611e6eec2.pngABF0EF3B-C6DC-435F-BB98-6A1B14216607.thumb.png.b461b8a86658af2bbc9e06fb5b019b10.png

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Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
13 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Perhaps a hint or 2 of a potential colder trend at times further afield! Just noticed from Simon Lee also pointing out quite the spread of solutions from multiple models for March...so we are still just about in the game,but I would like to see some colder solutions appearing in the short term models within the next week.. a few hints being dropped from the GFS ens and again the para thus evening.

graphe0_00_278_67___.png

Snow is not uncommon in March even down here

 

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Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands

Most of the output is looking Bartlettesque to some extent or another and will be very difficult to shift based on historic evidence. A couple of days break needed I think.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Clusters in "brunnur" view 

image.thumb.png.0369c6fe96ef3e0e5a849a90c444c862.png

Hmmm ... ECM still pushing ridging anomalies in the mid term ... not convincing at the moment though, it appears the Atlantic is back, and in such cycles we often find the troughs are slightly closer to the UK that forecast come D0. Only cluster 3 giving a genuine sniff of late cold.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny

18z GFS Op and Para, both lowering heights to our SE in FI, but get there via different routes. This at 324. Op first.

 

A7864C3E-9199-45F9-9545-E240AC72EAFF.png

C7AC5FD5-0A3C-4C7D-8242-E02FBEDF1131.png

Edited by DavidS
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Evening all,late to the party tonight(after's shift)

i am surprised no one posted the JMA,yes i know it's the JMA but it looks good...

JN264-21.thumb.gif.cd363222f9a66783f88c5e4a24751846.gif

the 18z gfs/p also looking good albeit in fl with a Scandi high showing up

gfsnh-0-318.thumb.png.1c50f563924924b0801dcc9e73e1c042.png

regarding the tweet from JC with a Greenland high,...i am a bit confused because Matt Hugo was going with a Scandi high yesterday,maybe a middle ground then with a Griceland high☺️ 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
typo
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Now where are we heading here from the 25th?...

ens_image.thumb.png.5e5b5fda553d5fdd5eb468ec9edc00e2.png

the gfs op a mild outlier in those clusters.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
9 hours ago, stodge said:

Evening all

Once again, hardly any posts in the thread so I think we can assume tonight's models are just, well, boring and yes I know all weather is interesting and all the rest of it but the number of comments tells it's own story.

I'll head to T+144 (23rd), T+240 (27th) for GEM, ECM, GFS OP and Parallel respectively to kick off the evening's fun and games:

T+144:

image.thumb.png.b287c5e5000f227dfda9c5a04a53bc64.pngimage.thumb.png.c17c191fb4bf13f52ea82229eb38d6ca.pngimage.thumb.png.187c27bff7253779897083cef80302a3.pngimage.thumb.png.331a57126dc20ad5c27047a5efc69f6f.png

T+240:

image.thumb.png.148eef40627ce4f222cc2bcb13cf1a65.pngimage.thumb.png.529ffe52b8506ad753f4bc8602d04b10.pngimage.thumb.png.942e0d369bce1ea9e0ffc6ca7d63a3a4.pngimage.thumb.png.06e39f80483bd08e2f5ed7bd4ea95e2e.png

At T+144, Parallel has the LP further south and OP has the trough closer albeit positively aligned to the north west. GEM and ECM not too different and both try to raise heights nearer to the British Isles by T+240 - ECM has the core of HP just to the south-east. GFS OP ends up close to GEM leaving Parallel the most interesting with a clear attempt at upstream amplification and the LP finally getting across the meridian with a flow of returning PM air so a little less mild.

Moving on and we'll have the T+312 (March 2nd) and T+384 (March 5th) charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and the 06Z CFS offering for fun value.

T+312:

image.thumb.png.d381c7f09c4ef49d16b733199d473e48.pngimage.thumb.png.2236785b8e18e1e0d61c9027fe7958c3.pngimage.thumb.png.03735a4a9efa148a74aa121f8edfc7af.pngimage.thumb.png.194ea2f0ce72fb0033d5c3001c982848.png

T+384:

image.thumb.png.56c935de230cf9840c3a428216f0466e.pngimage.thumb.png.099205de19c47caf810c57f8b7dc3f4d.pngimage.thumb.png.5c2a2c6d068259e8470e44b74f9bd4d9.pngimage.thumb.png.90c424227c2afba3f1909c7029f348a1.png

A bit of interest from GFS OP and Parallel going into March and it's caused by a nice bit of upstream amplification right at the end of the month which pushes the HP north and allows ridging first from Greenland and then from Russia. Some decent uppers on both charts, -8 and even below -12. To be fair, Control not interested and CFS keeps the HP closer to the British Isles.

Tonight then only glimmers of hope in the distance for cold fans. I do think we need to get the cold air out of North America which is fuelling strong cyclogenesis and creating powerful Atlantic storms but as that lifts back north we'll see an opportunity to slow the Atlantic and get that upstream amplification we need to get a colder pattern.

Typical America again hogging the snow ha ha

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
11 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Perhaps a hint or 2 of a potential colder trend at times further afield! Just noticed from Simon Lee also pointing out quite the spread of solutions from multiple models for March...so we are still just about in the game,but I would like to see some colder solutions appearing in the short term models within the next week.. a few hints being dropped from the GFS ens and again the para thus evening.

graphe0_00_278_67___.png

Did we have a second warming if so it's usually about 10 days to two weeks before the effects show themselves?? 

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Morning all big difference in GFS versus ECM mild and pleasant weekend coming up

with ECM showing southerly warm sector while GFS going cooler and unsettled.

Later in fantasy island GFS bringing hints of winter returning,need to keep a close eye on.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Definitely seeing evidence of a bit of a reshuffle this morning ECM brings a frosty U.K. high the GFS manages to drop pressure in Europe and we see cold easterly winds. 

DCE3FA24-59D1-4CD3-B9D0-5621CADB4E5B.thumb.png.d1614ffb2858455463978cd1cb84dad3.png889747BD-007F-477D-A410-1BA06D5499BB.thumb.png.9caccbc5976952e9b912298545909dc8.png

We're also at the point now where solar input is starting to have more of a say during the daytime - so Friday to Sunday on the 00z ECM see daytime temperatures into double digits in places, despite the light winds.

This rainfall chart for the next 10 days is very extreme too. Eastern areas of Norfolk/Suffolk/Essex seeing little or no rainfall at all in the next 10 days, while western areas that get stuck under waving/stalled weather fronts could see 100-150mm of rain, and of course flooding problems. We're used to seeing a West/East split in terms of ppn in the UK, but to this extent is quite shocking! 

image.thumb.png.befd97ecf823239530c2d00e160c01c9.png
 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Op and para showing some interest around day 10,

There has been a fair few  runs showing pressure around the UK or just to the north in early March.

 

gfsnh-0-234 (3).png

gfsnh-0-252 (3).png

Noticing some run to run consistency developing which is when you take more notice.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Personally, and i might be wrong, but this final downwelling only looks like a minor affair and would only give a normal short spell of an Easterly. Going off this... unless im miles away from understanding it! lol
 

nam.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
2 hours ago, Anthony Burden said:

Morning all big difference in GFS versus ECM mild and pleasant weekend coming up

with ECM showing southerly warm sector while GFS going cooler and unsettled.

Later in fantasy island GFS bringing hints of winter returning,need to keep a close eye on.

Lovely stuff and rightly so in winter 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
11 hours ago, Climate Man said:

Most of the output is looking Bartlettesque to some extent or another and will be very difficult to shift based on historic evidence. A couple of days break needed I think.

While I wouldn't rule out a sustained period of mild south-westerlies, I just don't see any kind of Bartlett possibility tbh. I think the pattern of this winter's weather has been characterized by the continual shifting of high pressure systems as opposed to them taking up residency in any one particular spot nearby.

At certain times in the past there's been a pretty swift and dramatic move of high pressure from south of the UK that cuts across the UK and relocates over Scandinavia.  I'm not saying that will happen, but there is that kind of 'feel' about the fluidity of the atmosphere at this time that certainly makes me think its possible for the models to suddenly start coming up with such runs.

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