Model output discussion 10/02/21

[PiscesStar]

4 hours ago, PUTIN said:

And you think that's good?

YES 

[johnholmes]

A reply to the request from mushy this morning

Wed 17 Feb 500 mb update

Ec-gfs and both have no material change to the last 24 or indeed 72 hours; perhaps the ridge is a touch more east more n russia than n Scandinavia?

Noaa 6-10 and a touch more ridging in the very far w, otherwise little change in the ridge and trough layouts, the ridge e of the uk showing a centre of +ve heights, quite large really, of about 240 DM, and it looks to be over Austria. The 8-14, you commented on, and has a +ve centre of about 180 DM now shown over central uk, (yesterday it was over Brittany-cannot recall the +ve height max). So not a marked change. Assuming it is about right then the weather for the uk should settled down into a quiet spell with some fog and frost overnight, if skies are clear, and if the sun is out then pleasant spring like days. The +ve height centre is underneath the contour ridge so it may perhaps suggest a slow movement n of w. Best to wait and watch this over the next 2-3 days. It may by then have worked into the 6-10 chart?

Nothing suggests any major change in the 6-10 or 8-14 to me, and there is, as yet, no marked meridional development off the west coast of n America which might aid some effects downwind. Not that the major troughing set up over the usual area of n Canada would help this at all.

My pennorth for what it is worth?

[Mapantz]

Several posts moved over to here

Keep to model discussion only folks. 

[Frosty.]

Hi Gang, I haven’t really had time to look at the models so far today but I noticed the GEFS 6z mean is still trending towards a potential anticyclonic early March?.. which I’m sure would feel quite pleasant given the increasing strength of the sun and longer days to enjoy it!  

 

[phil nw.]

Understandably i see no early doors comment on the 12z runs after viewing them.

It's difficult to feel inspired to rush to the keyboard if you prefer cold or indeed an early taste of Spring. Anyone that has a likeness for Atlantic driven weather though will be happy with the current outlook.

t144

There will be quite a lot of rain over the coming days with a number of frontal systems coming in.The weekend looks quite wet for many, in particular away from the far se when we see a wriggling front develop as the colder air from the west has a mini battle with the euro ridging bringing up warm air from the south.

It continues to look pretty mobile and unsettled into next week on the latest gfs run with euro high struggling to gain any ridging at least out to day 10.

I think i will be happy with a dry few days soon,cold or mild,but it looks like patience will be needed for that.

 

Edited February 17, 2021 by phil nw.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Come on guys get with me,I'm here blowing on my device and desperately trying to get these Heights further North...come on dam you

@phil nw. Im most definitely fighting this cold chase alone...its so lonely

Edited February 17, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Battleground Snow]

I think some kind of cold spell is a reasonable shout for early March, it's most likely to come in the form of an Atlantic ridge, which allows a Northerly in, it will have to be very potent to deliver a widespread snow event at this time of year.

la Nina unexpectedly strengthened last week, back into the moderate category which probably helped to kill our cold spell.

GFS para attached as an example.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yes its fi but this is a big improvement from the para...one more shot come on my son,dont let us down.

I think we need another displacement of the Canada/Greenland vortex.

Edited February 17, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Tim Bland]

Welcome to Spring

[Gowon]

At last we have something interesting to look at on both the GFS. 

[Don]

22 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I think some kind of cold spell is a reasonable shout for early March, it's most likely to come in the form of an Atlantic ridge, which allows a Northerly in, it will have to be very potent to deliver a widespread snow event at this time of year.

Yes, otherwise anyone south of the Midlands is unlikely to see snow.

@MATTWOLVESthe roller coaster is proving to be a real nightmare, but have not given up hope just yet!

Edited February 17, 2021 by Don

[phil nw.]

25 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Come on guys get with me,I'm here blowing on my device and desperately trying to get these Heights further North...come on dam you

@phil nw. Im most definitely fighting this cold chase alone...its so lonely

It.s a bit grim early on Matt that's for sure.I wish i could highlight something more appealing for coldies.Still later on there's that ridging again which would bring frosty nights and some pleasant days. 

[Battleground Snow]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, otherwise anyone south of the Midlands is unlikely to see snow.

It did go on to morph into an Easterly later on, but let's try and focus on getting an Atlantic ridge up within  the next 7-10 days first.

There was an interesting cluster from the 06z gefs earlier, hopefully it's not just the GFS leading us up the garden path.

Edited February 17, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Cold Winter Night]

30 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I think some kind of cold spell is a reasonable shout for early March, it's most likely to come in the form of an Atlantic ridge, which allows a Northerly in, it will have to be very potent to deliver a widespread snow event at this time of year.

la Nina unexpectedly strengthened last week, back into the moderate category which probably helped to kill our cold spell.

GFS para attached as an example.

First get it within 240 hrs, with solid support from GEFS, EC and EPS. So far, it's lacking in that regard.

Chasing these cold charts at 300h is more fun in November-January than it is in this 2nd half of February IMO.
I'd like to see one more cold spell, not quite ready for spring yet, but only if it's a proper one.
In March, that should be with loads of snow.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

First get it within 240 hrs, with solid support from GEFS, EC and EPS. So far, it's lacking in that regard.

Chasing these cold charts at 300h is more fun in November-January than it is in this 2nd half of February IMO.
I'd like to see one more cold spell, not quite ready for spring yet, but only if it's a proper one.
In March, that should be with loads of snow.

 Chasing cold charts is fun all year round if you ask me,and even more fun when some of the pros are saying its unlikely!

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

 

45 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Come on guys get with me,I'm here blowing on my device and desperately trying to get these Heights further North...come on dam you

@phil nw. Im most definitely fighting this cold chase alone...its so lonely

 

41 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I think some kind of cold spell is a reasonable shout for early March, it's most likely to come in the form of an Atlantic ridge, which allows a Northerly in, it will have to be very potent to deliver a widespread snow event at this time of year.

la Nina unexpectedly strengthened last week, back into the moderate category which probably helped to kill our cold spell.

GFS para attached as an example.

JC (no not that one, I mean Judah C), says reasons to be cheerful....

Thanks to the usual suspects for continuing the chase

[Cold Winter Night]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

 Chasing cold charts is fun all year round if you ask me,and even more fun when some of the pros are saying its unlikely!

It's fun when there really seems to be something "brewing", even if it's in FI, but charts that show cold, but never come one day closer: mehh.

Let's see where this goes. I give King Winter 2-3 weeks more to come up with something, after that my focus switches to Summer mode. "Hot Summer Days" instead of "Cold Winter Nights".

 

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 12z @ 336hrs

It would only need that high to form 100 miles further West and we would be in the game for a potent Northerly to start March. 

Plenty of cold air still in the vicinity of the British Isles on March 3rd

[Battleground Snow]

There is a few members that broadly represent the para run in the GEFS..

If the ECM at 240 looks similar to the para then maybe it's something to watch out for in future runs.

 

[DavidS]

I’m late to the 12z today, but both the GFS Op and Para are offering something for Coldies in FI. Can it hold on for more than one run this time?

[WINTRY WALES]

Judah Cohen tweeting that Greenland Blocking looking favourable for early March and severe wintry weather possible for Europe 

[Paul]

Just for info, the GFS V16 update is due to go live on March 17th

 

[Griff]

11 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Judah Cohen tweeting that Greenland Blocking looking favourable for early March and severe wintry weather possible for Europe 

Really? That had completely passed me by. 

Diolch. 

[WINTRY WALES]

12 minutes ago, Griff said:

Really? That had completely passed me by. 

Diolch. 

Yes Griff....but of a surprise ...there’s always hope

[chris55]

ECM looking very mild on Sunday!

These mild conditions are always being pushed back a day or two......:)