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Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
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Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
38 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

things are looking up after the weekend.... not an exact match but close enough to give you an idea as whats likely

 

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ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

Yes there seems to be a fairly good signal for the upper high centre to drift SE. So hopefully not too many days with the cold N Sea wind and possible misty low cloud conditions.

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Posted
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Yes there seems to be a fairly good signal for the upper high centre to drift SE. So hopefully not too many days with the cold N Sea wind and possible misty low cloud conditions.

Unless you live on the East coast itself, in which case the chilly south or S-E winds will continue to feel bitter, with or without sea mist!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Pretty much everything I said about the GEFS 6z mean also applies to the 12z..predominantly anticyclonic theme, initially the high cell centred to the W/NW but then gradually the heights drifting SE across the u k meaning increasingly pleasant surface conditions for many, and certainly an improvement for the south / southeast following the chilly / less settled conditions later this week!..eventually we end up with a NW/SE split with heights to the SE and lower heights to the NW...looking through the perturbations, for sure there are some very spring-like ones between the mid / longer term, there are a few unsettled members here and there but on balance I think it would / will be high pressure in the vicinity of the u k. ☀️ 
6BC60241-A0EB-4139-8A33-CD95C0380BEA.thumb.png.ba6bd75512dde893ab7c34478fcbf63d.png7C05FBDE-294F-4F0C-8605-586ACB45A610.thumb.png.e86fef53175a4132c254f594ed0a8dd4.png40B13E20-76AC-4190-AC5D-8B8D1F9BD989.thumb.png.9a2a1ecb57ae6206958cb9e16f946565.pngE7F942F3-E84D-4907-86AA-55A3076AF8C6.thumb.png.67006620d92b99c4c6b8d1eb4c3ffca8.pngA75B5809-B051-4C57-8090-98366E29B10A.thumb.png.a4a132a982303cb8f1f976ee850daabf.pngC898454D-425D-4735-8916-54FA441A6051.thumb.png.27aae1ca26424343fed46c6d47fc957b.png314AB9C9-3D28-4FC9-A68F-47332E055E1D.thumb.png.0338131790a451f0bbfd43e515bb2473.png42687E81-9F52-4365-92C5-530401F56B9F.thumb.png.ce0285244f9388bbe6accd485c191512.png7447716C-115A-4023-AF52-180BD3EBAF13.thumb.png.0e70333948c3f5bcd46ecd38bfce2646.pngCCA73947-41B0-4F5D-9279-5997A300B665.thumb.png.e9d8c33f036ddaa6c2b509115c3c6230.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Very quiet in the thread at the moment, symptomatic of the fact the weather is forecast quiet for the foreseeable, there are shades of this time last year in the outlook which was predominantly anticyclonic. However, the difference is the position of heights, this year they are set to be pulled in different directions drawing in different air sources, whereas last year they held more direct or to the SE bringing in a stable warmer air mass. 

There has been a shift in the models today though away from heights sinking away and allowing the Atlantic in, to more of a sustained settled spell with heights holding firm closer to the UK, on occasion ridging west to allow cool northerly flow but also further SE pulling in drier warmer air mass though nothing especially mild.

Still think we can't rule out a late cold snap at some point in the next 2-3 weeks, but equally may see something quite mild for a short time as well. Swings and roundabouts..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Imagine the insane inland convective snowfall generated in late March here!

image.thumb.png.9b7e17f58ef7af03cbaff4da67f79278.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Imagine the insane inland convective snowfall generated in late March here!

image.thumb.png.9b7e17f58ef7af03cbaff4da67f79278.png

Would be shocked if that happens now- the chances of any real cold seem to have gone this morning. Much to the relief of many now in mid March!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Would be shocked if that happens now- the chances of any real cold seem to have gone this morning. Much to the relief of many now in mid March!

image.thumb.png.1ec4ed8e4c5f090e34b4dd5996e96b9e.png

Still the odd run or two going bonkers, but on the whole an average outlook in the offing.

Next 10 days either bone dry or minimal ppn across almost the entire UK.

image.thumb.png.13d8f4f782e37e3d3ac10eee30eaccef.png

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.1ec4ed8e4c5f090e34b4dd5996e96b9e.png

Still the odd run or two going bonkers, but on the whole an average outlook in the offing.

Next 10 days either bone dry or minimal ppn across almost the entire UK.

image.thumb.png.13d8f4f782e37e3d3ac10eee30eaccef.png

Yes the fact that it will (hopefully) be predominately dry is the best thing now, especially for those of us that work outside. Ground is still sodden in many places. 

Ecm 0z brings back cool easterly again for a while at day 10...

image.thumb.png.41f5590c0c14b12e535d687dd7db8be1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Would be shocked if that happens now- the chances of any real cold seem to have gone this morning. Much to the relief of many now in mid March!

Yes its a big outlier so 0 chance, but it just shows you when the starting conditions are only slightly moderated and the algorithms take into account solar energy that the right setup will still deliver widespread deep snow long after people on here think its possible.

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes its a big outlier so 0 chance, but it just shows you when the starting conditions are only slightly moderated and the algorithms take into account solar energy that the right setup will still deliver widespread deep snow long after people on here think its possible.

Might still happen this year as very seasonal for up here in the sixties with Easter 1968 as prime example. Local tractor dealer yesterday said to me yesterday that he had noticed the last 12 months have had more traditional seasons. As he is a competitive runner trains late and early in day and has also noticed much more colourful sunrises and sunsets in the last year as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

 

Interesting that the 6z gfs op has HP from around 20th to 28th. Then a clash of the air masses is shown with with cold N/Ne air meeting warm SSE air. 

image.thumb.png.86c68086bffd53962234f5ec1cbd6471.pngimage.thumb.png.0713a5d6007d4842d69ab08793c71585.png

Could result in some interesting weather if it was to verify however very unlikely. Both control and op are cold outliers on the GEFS..

 

image.thumb.png.417b022241eb30c3e740ab3b5d34b4f8.png

Still interesting watching how these various scenarios come and go....

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

Ecm 12z...well, cool, mainly settled and ...meh....

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM clusters T192-T240:

857EC09C-1281-4C33-B1CB-C7FB6DC5C9AD.thumb.png.c8aeaf8f1a1398e0bc1ee6bae421cd06.png

Differences elsewhere, but high heights close to the UK on all - position is crucial though, I think on balance the warmer solutions are favoured at this timescale.  The FI out to T360 plot:

30BA4F80-226E-409B-9D87-B79F0716246C.thumb.png.03cde3c5ec4a290775e7217c4728fde0.png

Obviously the larger cluster (28 members) would be the better for bringing some warmth, but no sense at all of an Atlantic barrage - but given the time of year, that is perhaps expected.

So a settled spell, not much precipitation, trending warmer.  I’ll take that.  And I will look for repeating patterns via things like SSTs now, with the long range GloSea5 favourable for a chance of a decent summer, it is now a question of looking at some details of the evolution over the next couple of months to see if this can be realised.  SSTs now, need to see more heat develop to SW of UK in the next couple of months:

DFF5BB87-8290-4E10-BF7E-C793C3EACBA4.thumb.png.fe7b4fe14fd202e1f6c79d0cb30d446b.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Ecm , great outlook, Yes I'm cherry picking but the slack area of pressure in about T+144  will give us cold crispy nights and warmish days but with some instabilty, beautiful  cloud scapes from towering cumulus clouds and some Thunderstorms too...That about sums up my thoughts tonight....! 

ecmt850.168-1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Right guys i am done with winter 2020/21 now and i would welcome Spring with open arms,...why!

look at these beaut's,...yummy yummy

610day_03.thumb.gif.f34abbf354c1edec4ddb5b0df6080daf.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.a4a4bf518eab15c54dc640d598d7ecfc.gif

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.5726435b79b46af70ba345394129f57c.pngecmwf-ens_mslpa_nhem_11.thumb.png.b0769cac02a1c0fe31979928c713fda4.pngecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.thumb.png.ad6738338b6dd7332db1f7cb89a93deb.png

De-built ECM ens trending warmer into week two,can we tap into some warmth from the south/southeast?

eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.46ebc48c21911f5aadebb7e64dfc7a74.png

i am now in storm mode now,...so bring it on ☀️⚡

we are getting there with the COVID 19 situation now and i hope that we will enjoy this upcoming summer 

take care all

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gfs and gfs//p have a classic trough to the west of the UK and high to the east that could produce some thundery showers/storms from the south at day ten...

GFSPARANH18_240_1.thumb.png.9c20688b96219214d20902d07d820f2d.pnggfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.80c41fdc39bb282bae626da1daf53d98.png

watch this space.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Sorry i posted the gfs//p twice^^,...doh

here is the gfs at day ten...

GFSOPNH18_240_1.thumb.png.fa31c23c88baeb4a68a30f492a750e1b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.1f73779ce24b73fe82efedb8d960edb8.pngimage.thumb.png.de7a8d7078432a660c913fdfdbca6e97.png

Something a bit more unsettled is still looking a bit more likely towards the end of the month - though models vary slightly with how the Griceland low develops and interacts along with a small circulation around the Azores at day 8:

image.thumb.png.c3c1931be6997e1dbf907a91361febcc.pngimage.thumb.png.48d9a83cad723d929de492a683042c26.pngimage.thumb.png.1fff865817ef8daa8b20da5924135455.png

By day 10 we have these options as low pressure has more more influence, but still far from certain exact details:

image.thumb.png.5f88cad092fe3e7e2cb8bdb9ba1e9e87.pngimage.thumb.png.daabcddedadaedba8356a9f34f6b528c.pngimage.thumb.png.d897f12d8d5eee8c2af1e17d07a5b4fe.png

 

 

 

 

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

GFS 12z hinting at a warm up for beginning of April, however at the moment I am not going to take it (too) seriously. 

image.thumb.png.94fffd20c2a65d501d2461466956ca93.png

The cold blooded reptilian creature is taking aim at central Europe......

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I think it is clear that high pressure will be in charge up to T192 at least, with the weather being determined by the precise location of the high.  beyond that timeframe, the ECM clusters see 5 scenarios to T240:

21DEE0CD-9E64-4CBA-95BC-E021C128AE5A.thumb.png.a3e89852de0aaad277474a95dc975e5a.png

Clusters 1,2 and 4 seem to suggest a variant on a high to the east, relatively settled and warmth for the UK from the south, the other two look like an Atlantic dominated scenario with wet and windy (and mild) weather for the UK.   

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

5 posts today, says it all, really nothing much to report. Very quiet weather ahead.. the weather was the same this time last year as well. March can be variable, but like September can be a bit of a bore fest..

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