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Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

watch this be Evert

h850t850eu.png

Evert - As in turn outward or inside out?

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
10 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Evert - As in turn outward or inside out?

Or Chrissie....

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
4 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

The chase is still on...otherwise my head will fall off...I hate that transition period of Winter to Spring...bring me one last shot at this before Spring rears its head!

gens-11-1-312.png

gens-11-0-336.png

With you all the way fella. THINK WE MAY HAVE A SHOT YET 

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Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
4 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Or Chrissie....

Hard to tell.....

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
54 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Both the GFS and the para continue to develop a pattern post day 8 which is more condusive to colder prospects .

The main PV relocates further to the nw which reduces the energy heading into the Atlantic .

Both show a slack pattern at that point which will allow wedges of heights initally and then further down the line some possible stronger blocking .

 

Yes the bigger picture looks better Nick...take a look at the NH profile...congratulations young man....you have triplets

gfsnh-0-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Not sure why, emerging trends are usually picked up by these charts in that timeframe. For anything cold to emerge, these charts would need to do a 180 degree u turn. Now that is possible, on very rare occassions they have been known to completely flip...


IMHO based on these charts, theres not much chance of cold before the end of this Month, certainly not in the next ten days, probably 12. Im not ruling out a cold spell in March though, as per current GFS FI charts. But for them to get any credence the NOAA anomaly charts would need to change in order to  support that. Until/unless they do, i for one will not be getting any hopes up (no matter what FI is showing).

coldonway.gif

day 11 (that chart) is the end of feb.   that chart says proper cold before the end of week 2 is extremely unlikely.  the gefs 12z is less amplified than the 06z so no momentum away from that output. 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Thinking that the GFS FI just shows there will be more shots at winter, and that's a trend I would expect to continue into April with a White Easter a distinct possibility without in any way being a probability at this stage.

But it is the time of year where you know that even if anything like Narnia conditions were delivered, they would soon turn to slush.  I suppose I would still enjoy for the moment but I always hate to see snow disappear quickly which would almost certainly be the case in March and definitely bee the case in April! March 2013 does show what can happen, but it must be borne in mind that it was a one in fifty year event.  Speaking of which I would much prefer to see the next winter 1962-63 first!  We only had to wait 9 months after the previous one in a fifty year March for it!

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon

GFS and parallel give variations on a theme of South to West based winds throughout the run.  UKMO similar.  Not a lot of cheer if you are looking for a cold spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Trom said:

GFS and parallel give variations on a theme of South to West based winds throughout the run.  UKMO similar.  Not a lot of cheer if you are looking for a cold spell.

GEFS have also just capitulated on the 12z run as well - game over unless a sudden EPS stonker.

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

The extremely mild 850s have been watered down a fair bit over the past few runs. Still showing more average at the end of the month.

IMG_20210216_173707.jpg

Edited by NewEra21
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

We have now well and truly slipped into our normal Atlantic setup.We know from experience that any cold from this will be behind passing lows from the nw.

With the developing euro heights  along with the return of that Greenland trough the jet will keep returning to that milder sw-ne trajectory.

1239039559_UN144-21(1).thumb.gif.ca0d7fedd6e872175ed222179fac6c45.gif

GFS further on looks quite flat and the Atlantic quite mobile so more of the same into next week looks quite likely currently.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean longer term into early March there are signs it could become generally settled under high pressure, before that it appears to suggest more of a NW / SE split and then a N / S split with the best opportunities for fine spells further s / se and the most unsettled conditions further north by northwest..very broad brush strokes of course.

E84A67C2-B943-46F9-8587-5F13247CC7D1.thumb.png.610d5eceeb50663bcf3b7cd903e70e58.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

What ya think guys...slightest hint of Heights nudging NW later or too much energy coming off the East seaboard to flatten it.

ECH1-240.gif

ECH0-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
12 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

What ya think guys...slightest hint of Heights nudging NW later or too much energy coming off the East seaboard to flatten it.

ECH1-240.gif

ECH0-240.gif

At least its not record breaking heat, I'll take it

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
25 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

What ya think guys...slightest hint of Heights nudging NW later or too much energy coming off the East seaboard to flatten it.

ECH1-240.gif

ECH0-240.gif

Less emphasis on Euro ridging on this run Matt until day 10 which would then see a cold high over us,thanks to the polar maritime flow prior to that.No blocking where we need it but with the jet trending a little more south we see a less mild run overall with regular incursions of colder air as the fronts move through.

 

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

You don't need me to tell you what the models are showing - 3 pages of discussion in 24 hours compared with 20-30 in the run up to the cold spell tells you all you need to know.

It's almost not worth me wasting my valuable putting up the charts because we know it's going to be unremittingly mild and benign for the rest of the month so I'm not going to bother.

I'll go off the deep end and start with the T+192 and T+240 charts for GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel.

T+192:

image.thumb.png.4448162bdb4ca4ad9e0231226353a6cc.pngimage.thumb.png.686992e4d45a151046ca23d4956f4c15.pngimage.thumb.png.e200c14fe942f43d1ff008fd02c9c67b.pngimage.thumb.png.f00fb07e6e70aaf44433d675cb143d98.png

T+240:

image.thumb.png.9f4c86426f198909c58ab23b49e7b246.pngimage.thumb.png.a06f4f8f9d816203bfe7b39fd3eb5594.pngimage.thumb.png.f777da9dcf7b81d31703b1a8370a1216.pngimage.thumb.png.e5a4460896c1833ea5515ed0fbf03499.png

Well, pretty much as I expected. Heights never too far from the south and LP to the west and north so the wind flow is generally between south and west. ECM gets the HP cell over the British Isles by T+240 and GFS Parallel offers a brief N'ly at T+240 but that's about it until the end of the month. 

Looking further on and changing the pack a little, the T+312 and T+384 charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and the latest offering from CFS:

T=312 takes us to March 1st, and T+384 to March 4th:

image.thumb.png.aeb8ef57364711b9f275e93d04042cc2.pngimage.thumb.png.29e203cab91940e5a9a38bbfe523e15c.pngimage.thumb.png.bf9e39413101efdbb479c3f5d04d6e52.pngimage.thumb.png.9d0d26d63ce04632a408a509724c49c9.png

T+384:

image.thumb.png.1d615a45ae43852174fcf4c9dbc9c594.pngimage.thumb.png.d3d987bdd4eeefa368d2c36dd74ccfbc.pngimage.thumb.png.4db642ccfca9cbff08403f089b87b07a.pngimage.thumb.png.a1177dd6e61ac32cb4b49346f1260958.png

Well, it's nice to find a couple of not so mild charts and CFS has been playing this theme consistently for days of a sharp change to a colder evolution in early March. Time will tell but that's all cold fans have tonight. It's arguably the mildest set of charts for several weeks and with GFS wanting to bring back a strong PV it may be those hoping for an early spring cold spell are going to be out of luck. Obviously, even the PV runs out of time but for now it's looking like a prolonged period of unremarkable weather - even some of the signals for a plume type event have faded tonight so mild or very mild - not too much rain in the south and east, a bit more further north and west looks a pretty safe call for the next 14-21 days.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Having just scanned the gfs ens graphs for each run from last nights 18z through to todays 12z. There are more than enough runs dropping down below minus 5 towards minus 10 and below  as we head into early March to keep coldies and snowies interested for a while yet.

Yes we have a mild second half of Feb to get through but at least there are hints of a change of regime with the change of the month.

I shall be watching the trend on the ens graph in that early March period with interest over the next week or two to see if this becomes an increasing feature.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

sheffield_ecmsd850.pngECM 12 z ensembles

One to watch perhaps .......trending down towards the end of the month !

( a dry cool start to March quite possible with frosts returning )

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

The trend to building heights over the continent and the UK again showing on the ecm run with a weaker Atlantic as the troughing recedes.So a drier period showing next week especially further south and east with temperatures looking to return towards average by day 10 as pressure builds.

ECM mean hts anomalies days 5 and10


EDH101-120.thumb.gif.40b681e874f6f1417a18dd7a9a438c91.gifEDH101-240.thumb.gif.70ca4ec45e39b8ac3326c98ccb245b5e.gif

Nothing yet to suggest any quick return to notable cold.We may see some night frosts under any favourably located mid-latitude high but at the moment there's no suggestion of any Arctic located block.

It's looking more and more likely to be after month end for anything to appear on that horizon going by the gefs.anomalies.

gensnh-31-5-360.thumb.png.a0ad3e80c9fd7f049092d251b332ab50.png

For coldies there's little to cling on to in the models generally this evening only Just a suggestion that a block around the uk develops with the possibility of  ridging further north in week 2.

The Atlantic jet looks much weaker by then so whether we see anything develop from there we will have to see in future runs.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Might I be permitted to talk about the summer?

Early days, but bodes well for summer at this stage

Do I take it you have given up on late winter cold now?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Just now, Don said:

Do I take it you have given up on late winter cold now?

No, see my post, I specifically stated this can’t ruled out until late March.

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