Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Don]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Pity its a big outlier because if it wasn't, we would be into territory of looking at these charts again.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/6857/gfseuw-16-360_gtb9.png

 

Nah, rubbish run for the south. Bring on the Bartlett!

[Tim Bland]

Thought is clicked on the CFS by mistake when I saw this ️

[Timbo]

Just look at all the very deep cold to our north east, if we can get a good ridge up to our North West we will be looking at March 2018 all over again.

bring it on and lets finish this winter in style

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 6z for first day of Spring !!!

Cant rule out a cold start to March ! ....one to keep an eye on

Edited February 16, 2021 by Jeremy Shockey

[kev238]

It’s clear there is some potential for the turn of the month . There’s a lot of cold air lurking to the north east which should keep things interesting over the next few weeks as it’s likely , in my opinion, to try and have a final swipe at us - I say this simply due to the patterns of the last couple of months 

[AltonMatthew]

Let’s hope for some spring warmth now rather than colder outcomes. March can often deliver a wintry blast but I for one am hoping for the warmer side of things now! 
 

 

[Timbo]

Hopefully looking at the way the models are shaping up, we could be seeing more scenes like this, this was last weekend just down the road from me at Southwold.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

4 minutes ago, Timbo said:

Hopefully looking at the way the models are shaping up, we could be seeing more scenes like this, this was last weekend just down the road from me at Southwold.

Snow80221.MOV

Wow! Thanks for sharing - The extremes in this country are quite something, given how small an island we are! Still not seen one proper flake of snow this winter... 

[Timbo]

1 minute ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

Wow! Thanks for sharing - The extremes in this country are quite something, given how small an island we are! Still not seen one proper flake of snow this winter... 

Yes was Quiet amazing, it snowed every day from Sunday till Friday, we still have drifts 5ft plus on the back roads.

[Polar Maritime]

A few posts are starting to drift off topic, Just Model Discussion please in here. Use the winter thread for general chat.

Thanks all.

Edited February 16, 2021 by Polar Maritime

[That ECM]

Definitely getting to the end of the season when this shows up and hardly a page of posts 

[mushymanrob]

Theres nothing on these charts that suggests any proper cold in the next two weeks. A pretty moderate mean upper Southwesterly across the UK with high pressure dominant, slightly to our near East.

That looks mild and unsettled to me, with the usual NW/SE divide, the SE getting the milder, sunnier, drier conditions.

The only point about these is that their own confidence rating is below average, 2/5 , therefore might be "out", but IF these charts verify then they are a long way off anything cold.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

Theres nothing on these charts that suggests any proper cold in the next two weeks. A pretty moderate mean upper Southwesterly across the UK with high pressure dominant, slightly to our near East.

That looks mild and unsettled to me, with the usual NW/SE divide, the SE getting the milder, sunnier, drier conditions.

The only point about these is that their own confidence rating is below average, 2/5 , therefore might be "out", but IF these charts verify then they are a long way off anything cold.

 

How did those Noaa charts perform with the last Estly mushy? I'm not sure what they were saying prior to the event?

Amazing GFS and again its little brother throws out a completely different scenario at the same timeframe..OK its beyond day 10 so differences will occur..but those kind of differences from the same model stable!! I'm not so sure.

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Pity its a big outlier because if it wasn't, we would be into territory of looking at these charts again.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/6857/gfseuw-16-360_gtb9.png

 

Doesn’t look like an outlier to me (re the temps anyway) or course it could well be a synoptic outlier Hood to see a steady increase in the stellar FI runs keeping the dream alive for one last cold shot ..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The chase is still on...otherwise my head will fall off...I hate that transition period of Winter to Spring...bring me one last shot at this before Spring rears its head!

Edited February 16, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Sleet30031972]

48 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

Wow! Thanks for sharing - The extremes in this country are quite something, given how small an island we are! Still not seen one proper flake of snow this winter... 

I'd say the opposite really. I think this country is one of the least extreme in the world meterologically speaking. Usually operates within a very narrow range of temepratures really. Certainly the least extreme in Europe i would argue.

[bluearmy]

45 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Theres nothing on these charts that suggests any proper cold in the next two weeks. A pretty moderate mean upper Southwesterly across the UK with high pressure dominant, slightly to our near East.

That looks mild and unsettled to me, with the usual NW/SE divide, the SE getting the milder, sunnier, drier conditions.

The only point about these is that their own confidence rating is below average, 2/5 , therefore might be "out", but IF these charts verify then they are a long way off anything cold.

 

Day 11 is too early for the current nwp to show anything for coldies rob

[Don]

42 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

The chase is still on...otherwise my head will fall off...I hate that transition period of Winter to Spring...bring me one last shot at this before Spring rears its head!

Indeed Matt, I do not want to have to open the spring roller coaster just yet!  Meanwhile, the technical team continue to work on the winter roller coaster and I hope to have an update this evening! 

[SqueakheartLW]

After looking at the previous 4 GFS runs, which one of these beasterlies would you like to take then as our late February/early March offering then?

15/02/2021 12z GFS

Member 10     +384 hours     850hpa temp -17.1

15/02/2021 18z GFS

Member 30     +330 hours     850hpa temp -18.0

16/02/2021 00z GFS

Member 18     +384 hours     850hpa temp -14.2

16/02/2021 06z GFS

Member 8     +360 hours     850hpa temp -14.9

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Definitely getting to the end of the season when this shows up and hardly a page of posts 

Yes those who didn't do well snow-wise so far probably a bit jaded with it all. But thats a cracking chart for early march. Let see what unfolds.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

How did those Noaa charts perform with the last Estly mushy? I'm not sure what they were saying prior to the event?

 

This is the 6-10 day chart issued Feb 1st .... on the back of this i blogged that cold was on the way , which indeed it was. Subsequent runs though didnt develop the cold any further and slowly backed off, which is why the cold spell didnt last very long, unlike 3 years agos BFTE. see chart below... dunno how to insert...lol



 

56 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Day 11 is too early for the current nwp to show anything for coldies rob

Not sure why, emerging trends are usually picked up by these charts in that timeframe. For anything cold to emerge, these charts would need to do a 180 degree u turn. Now that is possible, on very rare occassions they have been known to completely flip...

IMHO based on these charts, theres not much chance of cold before the end of this Month, certainly not in the next ten days, probably 12. Im not ruling out a cold spell in March though, as per current GFS FI charts. But for them to get any credence the NOAA anomaly charts would need to change in order to  support that. Until/unless they do, i for one will not be getting any hopes up (no matter what FI is showing).

Edited February 16, 2021 by mushymanrob

[nick sussex]

Both the GFS and the para continue to develop a pattern post day 8 which is more condusive to colder prospects .

The main PV relocates further to the nw which reduces the energy heading into the Atlantic .

Both show a slack pattern at that point which will allow wedges of heights initally and then further down the line some possible stronger blocking .

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

watch this be Evert

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

watch this be Evert

What's that to do with  ladies' tennis!

[Frigid]

Well... The GFS has no clue atm 

  

Edited February 16, 2021 by Frigid