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Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is the gfs going to open the floodgates here?

at 300.

gfsnh-0-300.thumb.png.63804019a4dc293e2abeb809aee5e92a.png

we are looking for another cold spell aren't we cos there has been hints of this showing in the gefs ext ens of late,are we ready to start chasing again. 

Boom

gfsnh-0-330.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, Griff said:

Boom

gfsnh-0-330.png

I would call it a mini boom at the moment

lets see if it upgrades to one of these...

huge-explosion-boom.thumb.gif.afd0bcb2b89864be3ae0edd2862123c9.gif

it does get the lower heights into the Med to prop that high up though

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

I would call it a mini boom at the moment

lets see if it upgrades to one of these...

huge-explosion-boom.thumb.gif.afd0bcb2b89864be3ae0edd2862123c9.gif

it does get the lower heights into the Med to prop that high up though

No, all in, nailed as some may have said prematurely at the start of the year! 

What could possibly go wrong... giphy.gif&ehk=0kHKf4QlqsVBQJf3gfdo53v1%2

 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I can only find one GEFS member which supports the UKMO day 6 solution . 

So 29 and the control run aren’t interested . 

Why, is the UKMO day 6 chart good?

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

We’re going to need that high to go a bit further north west or it’s just cold and dry bar a flurry in kent ...

3A886663-6C1E-4C31-AD82-CAC7814AEF34.png

At that range its probably best we don't speculate on the details to much..

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The control is starting to sniff something out here at 192...

gensnh-0-1-192.thumb.png.e35e56c044046fe54bf54548847c6766.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

We’re going to need that high to go a bit further north west or it’s just cold and dry bar a flurry in kent ...

3A886663-6C1E-4C31-AD82-CAC7814AEF34.png

loads in Jersey, reminds me of 11th March '13

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Why, is the UKMO day 6 chart good?

 Nothing to write home about unfortunately . But if this was a new trend it would call into question any high to the south taking charge. It does however show the PV already moving away from southern Greenland .

With a few tweaks it could look better and I’m in two minds whether to cheer this solution on as the possible route out of the mild crud takes an awfully long time in the GFS.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFSp lining up the big guns out east

D6A43736-471D-438F-8801-1EB3E59BD7DB.png

But what about the 'big gnus'... Aren't they lining-up too, in the Serengeti?

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
45 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Ohhh no...I just can't take anymore Estlys

 

Me neither, I want some nice spring weather now! 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Oh!!!,give over Don,...we are still in Feb,...mid Feb,there is plenty of legs to this winter yet me son,...i won't give up until

I'm aving a laugh!  You believe that, you'll believe anything! 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
7 minutes ago, Don said:

I'm aving a laugh!  You believe that, you'll believe anything! 

Trying that reverse psychology?,you know it doesn't work

Edited by Allseasons-si
typo
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Trying that reverse cytology?,you know it doesn't work

Oh it works a treat! 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Trying that reverse cytology?,you know it doesn't work

You've lost me there, Si: 

mw-logo-245x245@1x.png
WWW.MERRIAM-WEBSTER.COM

a branch of biology dealing with the structure, function, multiplication, pathology, and life history of cells : cell biology… See the full definition

:drunk-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

You've lost me there, Si: 

mw-logo-245x245@1x.png
WWW.MERRIAM-WEBSTER.COM

a branch of biology dealing with the structure, function, multiplication, pathology, and life history of cells : cell biology… See the full definition

:drunk-emoji:

^^ corrected it,...oops!

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