Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Don]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Northerlies very very common place in early March.. we are entering the quarter of the year when easterlies and northerlies are at their yearly maxim..  traditionally the Atlantic goes into slumber. 

Yep, I suppose it's the best chance we have now!  Hopefully if a cold snap/spell comes off at the end of February/early March, more places will see more snow than they have throughout winter so far!

[damianslaw]

Just now, Don said:

Yep, I suppose it's the best chance we have now!  Hopefully if a cold snap/spell comes off at the end of February/early March, more places will see more snow than they have throughout winter so far!

Indeed I'm trying to remind people it's still February and spring is a notoriously topsy turvy season when sudden northerly arctic blasts often do happen, the upcoming mild spell does not mean curtains for any further cold weather not in the slightest.

[Don]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Indeed I'm trying to remind people it's still February and spring is a notoriously topsy turvy season when sudden northerly arctic blasts often do happen, the upcoming mild spell does not mean curtains for any further cold weather not in the slightest.

You're correct!  I think my problem is I'm haunted by the pear shaped Februaries of 2009 and 2012!

[syed2878]

54 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Indeed I'm trying to remind people it's still February and spring is a notoriously topsy turvy season when sudden northerly arctic blasts often do happen, the upcoming mild spell does not mean curtains for any further cold weather not in the slightest.

 You’re absolutely right of course is not curtains for cold how ever to get something notable with settling snow in March it would have to be exceptional synoptic wise something like 2013 or 2018. At the moment no model showing anything like that even the MO have changed the wording slightly on their extended outlook.

[Don]

11 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 You’re absolutely right of course is not curtains for cold how ever to get something notable with settling snow in March it would have to be exceptional synoptic wise something like 2013 or 2018. At the moment no model showing anything like that even the MO have changed the wording slightly on their extended outlook.

Bear in mind the first week of March 2013 recorded temps of 17C but still returned a CET of 2.7C!  Settling snow in March is not exceptional at all.  However, lasting snow on the ground is.

Edited February 14, 2021 by Don

[tight isobar]

8 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Exceptionally mild later next week and into the weekend . Should easily hit low 20s down here . 

February really can be a month of huge swings .  Solid agreement for a big warm up across the models .

I think last chance saloon time is in around ten days time where there might be a chance to edge the high further north and then it’s whether the models can take that further ne from there and drop some shortwave energy underneath it.

 

The issue was “always “ getting migrating heights further north!! But the alleyways are still open..@just!! And a cold end feb.. early March are still applicable... February .. could be a record breaking month @2021 for a whole array of reasons... on we watch.

[Daniel*]

Morning, it must be the quietest this thread has been in months, it appears next week is trending more unsettled with Atlantic trough closer, many times in summer we’ve seen this scupper heatwaves which only ended up confined to far SE. I’m not quite convinced we will see this unseasonable warm weather next weekend. As singularity said I think a mid latitude block is more likely not one that is centred to our S/SW, so that means fairly pleasant days but frosty nights. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 11/02/2021 at 17:20, CreweCold said:

I’m favouring early March personally. Most likely Greenland based.

 

Hints from the GEFS of retrogression come early March- let's see if the signal is still there with the 0z suite

[Daniel*]

To give credit to GFS it can be good at picking up things in long range in late February seems consistent at building a U.K. high latest from mean has it tad further north that continues and it could become interesting.

 

12 is nice

[KTtom]

Im not liking the trend!, Was hoping for some springlike weather next weekend, ECM and others, keep probably the worst possible combination in place for the next 10 days, vortex over Iceland area and a B high! Not long ago some members were saying an Atlantic dominated pattern was off the table.....they may need to re think. This week is definately that (Thursdays fax), ecm taking it to day 10.

 

[The PIT]

Looks like an early start to spring no model indicating anything of cold at the moment. MY attention now turns to whether the mid weather will cancel out the cold spell and we still end up average or just above. Plus we  see yet another month hitting 100mm which on the present runs doesn't look likely. Ending up average or above does look possible.

[Tim Bland]

GEFS starting to show some very cold members at the end and the op isn’t without interest... 

[JimBob]

No doubt with all this talk of opening pub beer gardens in March, we will find any spring like weather soon disappears from the models!!! 

[Jason M]

Still looks like a cold snap possible around the turn of the month. Of course, we will probably be in the same boat with any snow settling given the prospect of some very mild weather beforehand.

 

[Anthony Burden]

Charts showing some milder temperatures for a possible 10 days so time to enjoy 

time in the garden.GFS keen on bringing back the freezer in fantasy island,one to keep an

eye on.

[SLEETY]

Lets hope the gfs is correct in putting the UK back in the freezer,it was first in picking out this cold spell despite wobbling nearer the reliable timeframe,so lets hope its got it correct again.

The ECM is crud and and  can do one ,we dont want those type of set-ups at this time of year,eats up valuable time where decent snow and cold is still possible.

Still its been useless in fl this Winter GFS has beaten it hands out in that department,lets hope its current output is also miles off reality too.

Edited February 14, 2021 by SLEETY

[Penrith Snow]

3 hours ago, KTtom said:

Im not liking the trend!, Was hoping for some springlike weather next weekend, ECM and others, keep probably the worst possible combination in place for the next 10 days, vortex over Iceland area and a B high! Not long ago some members were saying an Atlantic dominated pattern was off the table.....they may need to re think. This week is definately that (Thursdays fax), ecm taking it to day 10.

 

Hmmm, could be some back edge snow as low secondary low zips across northern England, note the 528dam line tucking in behind, mild weather being swept away up north

[Robbie Coldrain]

You do have to laugh sometimes.  Didn't Gerry Rafferty and Joe Egan right a song about this? 

 

[danm]

8 hours ago, Don said:

Bear in mind the first week of March 2013 recorded temps of 17C but still returned a CET of 2.7C!  Settling snow in March is not exceptional at all.  However, lasting snow on the ground is.

This is one reason I’m not a fan of March cold and usually look to the start of meteorological Spring for some warmer, sunny weather. To deliver anything more than transitory, falling snow in March takes something pretty exceptional, such as the 2018 BFTE. If we get another beast, I’m all for it. If we just get cold weather with wintry showers that don’t stick around, I’m done and would prefer we start getting Spring-like weather. 

[Singularity]

The ECM 00z is a legit shocker - so out of kilter with the general expected trend toward a return to a weak Atlantic zonal flow as the cold air supply out of N America reduces.

Hopefully it’s barking up the wrong tree as we struggle to even manage dry conditions to go with the balmy temperatures!

I’m still inclined to side with a UK high development by the start or next week. That’s befitting of a tropical signal favouring HLB pushing back against what still looks to be an increased zonal flow compared to last week (as otherwise it’d be reversed again!).

[Tim Bland]

Model fatigue must really be setting in when op runs like this don’t even get a mention...

[Frosty.]

Being a certified lunatic..(Spurs fan)...I mean coldie..the models..... ( eg..i.e..wateva..GEFS / ECM )...make for painful viewing..but, with my unbiased hat on, it will be feeling more springlike at least..I don’t see any potential return too cold until we’ll beyond day 10..call me Mr Negative if you like?...just my opinion!

Edited February 14, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Lampostwatcher]

Would love a last winter cold blast 

Like the gfs 6z 

Is showing 

[minus86BriJ]

It is only the 14th of Feb and with semi reliable FI, from an overall trend perspective, only going out to about 10 days anything could pop up come the 24th.  I seem to remember a recent, not so successful from a cold return POV, SSW that dragged on for months bringing below average temperatures all the way right through May.  I suspect more cold is to come.

[NewEra21]

I still feel we'll get one more potent cold shot at the end of February - beginning of March. The models keep showing hints of it here and there, nothing concrete as of yet though!