Model output discussion 10/02/21

[stodge]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM day 8-10 looks great to me. I like a bit of cold, but we’ve had a week of very cold stuff now.....time for a total flip and temps into the mid to high teens if that ECM comes off. Raw data has a few 16-18c patches at day 8-10. Spring isn’t far off

Unless of course you look at the 06Z CFS run which, after a mild interlude of less than a week, puts us back in the freezer for three weeks with two spells of retrogression.

Bring it on

[Matt H]

I haven’t posted much recently but I’d personally welcome some warmer weather turning up soon as I’d love to be able to spend some more time outdoors. I was hoping for a decent snow event before the winter is over, and that may still happen, but in the meantime I’ll happily enjoy an early taste of spring if these charts verify.

Just to add, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed posting on here during the winter months and I’m so glad that I joined the forum back in November as this hobby has kept me going during the lockdown when there’s been little else to do and it has been a great season of model watching overall.

Edited February 13, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[Mike Poole]

16 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

I haven’t posted much recently but I’d personally welcome some warmer weather turning up soon as I’d love to be able to spend some more time outdoors. I was hoping for a decent snow event before the winter is over, and that may still happen, but in the meantime I’ll happily enjoy an early taste of spring if these charts verify.

Just to add, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed posting on here during the winter months and I’m so glad that I joined the forum back in November as this hobby has kept me going during the lockdown when there’s been little else to do and it has been a great season of model watching overall.

I’ve enjoyed reading your posts @Frosty Winter!  And you are right, the model watching has been great this winter with a virtual absence of the tropospheric polar vortex most of the time.  A SSW is always a two month model watching rollercoaster!  Just feel that more could have been delivered in the way of snow, although I know that is down to local experience.  We had more than any winter since the 2018 BFTE and in my location, I’ll take that.  

One more sting in the tail, maybe?  Maybe that’s what the GFS was tilting at T384 (just for fun!):

After that we could all do with some warmth!

Edited February 13, 2021 by Mike Poole

[swebby]

38 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Anyone fancy a BBQ next week?

   

High teens very likely in this set-up.  It should feel warm in the sunshine.

All in FI though.

Over winter the ECM has regularly thrown out solutions which depict high uppers getting dragged up to the uk from iberia/East Atlantic. None have ended up being anywhere close to what actually happens with any warmth normally being mixed out before it gets past the Pyrenees. Interesting to see how this latest one goes?

[Man With Beard]

29 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM day 8-10 looks great to me. I like a bit of cold, but we’ve had a week of very cold stuff now.....time for a total flip and temps into the mid to high teens if that ECM comes off. Raw data has a few 16-18c patches at day 8-10. Spring isn’t far off

Not far off Feb 2019 territory now. If that spell hadn't lifted the bar so high, I'd be suggesting this one might be record-breaking. How ironic in such a cold winter, the records under most threat might still be mild ones! Such is winter these days!

It's going to feel like summer after the recent cold - nearly 20C increase on this weekend. That's a stunning and highly unusual change in this part of the world.

Nevertheless, this is still a way off, and ridging from the south of this kinds sometimes fails to make the whole journey to the UK.

[BLIZZARDMAN]

3 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Not far off Feb 2019 territory now. If that spell hadn't lifted the bar so high, I'd be suggesting this one might be record-breaking. How ironic in such a cold winter, the records under most threat might still be mild ones! Such is winter these days!

It's going to feel like summer after the recent cold - nearly 20C increase on this weekend. That's a stunning and highly unusual change in this part of the world.

Nevertheless, this is still a way off, and ridging from the south of this kinds sometimes fails to make the whole journey to the UK.

Yet a week ago we were all wishing for something closer to Feb 2018, but here we are and Feb 2019 is certainly looking more akin to the current model output. I still don't think this is the end of winter, no one starts packing their fans and AC units in the middle of August.

[Chesil View]

We're seeing the two sides of a blocked meridional flow from cold to warm, worth remembering that this kind of set up can change back to cold just as suddenly as it changes to warm at this time of year. It's a two way street 

[damianslaw]

14 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

We're seeing the two sides of a blocked meridional flow from cold to warm, worth remembering that this kind of set up can change back to cold just as suddenly as it changes to warm at this time of year. It's a two way street 

Good wise words, we are in a highly amplified state - and cold can quickly be exchanged to something much milder, only for the cold to come back. Spring months often do this, northerlies switching to southerlies then back to northerlies. 

The next week will certainly be much milder than the week just gone, high pressure sat to our south and east, long drawn SW flow. I'm not seeing temps on a par with late Feb 2019. 

Every likelihood the heights will ridge our way and then cold to spring up from the 'back door' i.e. warm air advection to our west, cold air advection to our east, I can see an easy swift change to something colder before the month is out, likewise we may end up with a blocking high sat over the UK, bringing cold nights, and average temps by day - remember we are still in February, not late March.

Expect the models to throw out many more colder scenarios as we approach end of the month/enter March, not saying these will verify.. but with a weak atlantic continuing they have a greater chance of verifying I feel than normal.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, spayne said:

I don’t get it, people asking for sun and warmth..it’s still the middle of February, maybe start complaining when it’s early April and it’s still cold..!!

Very true indeed im in stitches here,and its not the fact I'm watching Eastenders catch up...many who were desperate for a cold Estly are now saying roll on the warmth..and this is more so true for twitter...5 or 6 days of a cold and mainly dry wind and they've had enough!! Yes its been cold....Brutal?? Far from it...its actually served to dry the grounds out which were becoming waterlogged in places..I would say to many this evening...be careful what you wish for...talk of 20C at thus stage could be a tad eccentric..Trust me on this....there will be many in here who will be moaning in June that 20C is struggling to be breached! The models tell me tonight its becoming milder...low to mid teens possible in any brighter moments..Bare in mind some cold nights and faux cold is possible,so with any low cloud mist and murk we could remain quite a bit cooler than those 850s suggest! And I would most definitely say at this stage that its just as likely it will be very cold as much as very mild as we enter March...Last spring was sublime...I have a feeling lightning won't strike twice.

 

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening all

not much to discuss on the cold front in the foreseeable future but a Spanish plume of sorts so we would probably be talking about how warm it gets next week and into next weekend

but beyond that there are signs in some of the gefs ens that things could turn colder again at the end of the month and into the start of next month,here are a few members from the gefs,...CHERRY PICKED of course

pert 11.

pert 23.

and pert 29.

now the cfsv2 is still showing signs of a more amplified pattern with this at just 174 hours

then these at 354,714 and 816 hrs

run it through...

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe GEM

the CFSv2 has been pretty consistent of late with the cold easterly charts and it could be a cold end to the month and going into March, lets see what happens

anyway,...enjoy the warmth next week(well it will certainly will feel warmer),shame i am going to be on after's though to miss out.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 13, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[SqueakheartLW]

With such dire charts for cold fans now I have changed the subject of my thread to hunt for the February heatwave. It seems going by both 12z GFS and GEM we have two shots at a very warm spell for February, one around the 20th and the other around the 24th and it would seem the second spell is the one that has the most potential to be very mild.

I have removed all runs that do not get to at least 10C at 850hpa at any point. This leaves 7 of 32 runs on the GFS and 10 of 21 runs on the GEM. The GEM looks even more keen for the milder spell than GFS does and also has more members in percentage terms going for very mild with 10C+ uppers. Below I have picked out the mildest member from each peak and model to show what could potentially be possible both around the 20th and 24th

20th February GFS

Member 16     850hpa temp 8.3

20th February GEM

Member 12     850hpa temp 12.2

24th February GFS

Member 30     850hpa temp 11.2

24th February GEM

Member 9     850hpa temp 13.9

Coldest charts from both 12z GFS and GEM

Just to show that I am a fan of cold and to give the cold fans something to look at I have picked out the coldest charts from both 12z models

GFS 12z

Member 29     850hpa temp -14.0

GEM 12z

Member 17     850hpa temp -6.6

[Don]

1 hour ago, BLIZZARDMAN said:

Yet a week ago we were all wishing for something closer to Feb 2018, but here we are and Feb 2019 is certainly looking more akin to the current model output. I still don't think this is the end of winter, no one starts packing their fans and AC units in the middle of August.

At this rate, I think I might be unpacking the fan next weekend! 

[bluearmy]

5 hours ago, Frostbite1980 said:

@bluearmy are you still hoping a final downwelling will increase the chances of another cold snap/spell?

Expecting one still?  - yes.  
 

knowing how it will play out ? - nope 

[Don]

Very different in here tonight compared to this time last week when it was buzzing........

[Troubleatmill]

Its a bit weird this winter, we always expect the best synoptics in late Feb march for clear reasons  we all know about but this year the whole winter has been great for watching, hoping for one last shot before spring! Take care guys

[nick sussex]

It’s quite strange watching the GFS 18 hrs run come out. At one point it looks like an absolute horror show for cold with  the PV looking very angry and a flat pattern with energy running over the top of the high and then the PV deflates and the Atlantic looks very weak with then a chance for the high to ridge north or ne.

[bluearmy]

     
 

you could maybe deduce that this change from day 8 to day 14 could be a wave of reduced or reverse zonal heading down into the trop .....

[Don]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

     
 

you could maybe deduce that this change from day 8 to day 14 could be a wave of reduced or reverse zonal heading down into the trop .....

Doesn't look like providing anything particularly exciting for us in two weeks, but perhaps something more interesting could follow?.....

However, the Azores high looks to be a spoiler.

Edited February 13, 2021 by Don

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS - interesting by D13 to say the least.

[Azazel]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Very different in here tonight compared to this time last week when it was buzzing........

I’m buzzing tbf. 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I’m buzzing tbf. 

Mild lovers will definitely be buzzing now!

[Don]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS - interesting by D13 to say the least.

Hopefully not because of exceptionally warm temperatures!

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Hopefully not because of exceptionally warm temperatures!

quite a few looked like they would bring a Northerly within the first few days of March either via a Greenland or Atlantic ridge.

[Don]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

quite a few looked like they would bring a Northerly within the first few days of March either via a Greenland or Atlantic ridge.

Beggars can't be choosers but lets hope it's via a Greenland ridge, if we can get there in the first place!

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Beggars can't be choosers but lets hope it's via a Greenland ridge, if we can get there in the first place!

Northerlies very very common place in early March.. we are entering the quarter of the year when easterlies and northerlies are at their yearly maxim..  traditionally the Atlantic goes into slumber.