Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Mike Poole]

20 minutes ago, Don said:

Could that be a result of a final downwelling wave as Bluearmy has alluded to?

Could be one more wave, if the NAM plots on Stratobserve are anything to go by, but it is based on 0z GFS:

It will be interesting to see if that comes off, for a strong SSW like the one we had, effects should be lasting a couple of months so timely for a final bout of cold around the turn of the month.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Could be one more wave, if the NAM plots on Stratobserve are anything to go by, but it is based on 0z GFS:

It will be interesting to see if that comes off, for a strong SSW like the one we had, effects should be lasting a couple of months so timely for a final bout of cold around the turn of the month.

Thanks for those charts Mike..was just thinking the latest round of warming occurred 12 days ago,so we could begin to see the affects in the next 10 days or so thats if it downwells or indeed plays ball...But because of this recent event I feel it would be a tad premature to give ap all hope on another cold blast at this stage! Would also be nice to know if the January 5th warming was solely responsible for this cold snap,or if we had received a favourable outcome from the MJO phase! Not even the met seem sure on that! Still up for grabs beyond a week though,with the next 7 for sure looking rather mundane.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean there are signs of height rises from the south following a more unsettled spell for some next week?, especially western and northern areas...of course I was hoping for a continuation of cold..but boohoo..it’s not too be!  

Quote

 

 

 

Edited February 13, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Tim Bland]

Acuweather are usually pretty good with their long range forecast and they go for a cold spring. Also encouraging that they show wet / unsettled Spain and Italy early on, indicating an Iberian / Genoa low perhaps  

[Ultima Thule]

39 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

By day ten the GEFS have a range of solutions .

Theres a cluster of around 6 which I shall name the Cluster of Hope ! 

I am unfathomably confident that we will see a Return of The Beast from around February 25th.  One or two GEFS indicate this (11 and 29 IIRC).

I will be looking to see a surge of HP and WAA up across the Uk around 22-23 February to facilitate the Scandi High later on.  Some signs on GEM, and ECM may or may not play ball this evening.

Edited February 13, 2021 by Ultima Thule

[KTtom]

6 hours ago, Robbie Coldrain said:

People always says how hard it is to shift a cold block, but in reality it never seems to be a problem.  7-10 days is generally all we can manage before the mild / Atlantic finds a way in. Yes there are exceptions to this, but they are rare.   

Yes, i think there is a difference between shifting the cold and shifting a blocking high, shifting the cold is easy, models do tend to struggle in shifting a blocking high when the high is stood firm. 

What we have now is a decaying sinking high to our east.

Edited February 13, 2021 by KTtom

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Acuweather are usually pretty good with their long range forecast and they go for a cold spring. Also encouraging that they show wet / unsettled Spain and Italy early on, indicating an Iberian / Genoa low perhaps  

Interesting that Tim,possible late ongoings from that mashed troposphere! I wouldn't rule out that outcome at all..On a more lighthearted note im sure many will be rubbing there hands in glee if those Mediterranean areas have a cool and unsettled time of it,especially being as a travel ban may still be in place  

Edited February 13, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Battleground Snow]

ECM trying to salvage something from the wreckage at 144, weak scandi heights, need the trend to increase fast to escape 7 days of mild conditions.

 

Edited February 13, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Ultima Thule]

Im hoping the ECM can throw in a route to cold by day 10. Via WAA up to the North Pole over days 1-6.  What goes up, must come down, hopefully over us by 24th

[Purga]

Let's try and be positive in the face of the dire week ahead folks!

There is a decent chunk of cold air to the NE  & a cold bolck in place despite the sh*te over us.

The 12z ENS are showing more and more cold runs

Otherwise it's grin & bear it time

[Griff]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM trying to salvage something from the wreckage at 144, weak scandi heights, need the trend to increase fast to escape 7 days of mild conditions.

 

GEM and GFSP showed some similarities earlier too, more runs needed

[pinball wizard]

33 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Acuweather are usually pretty good with their long range forecast and they go for a cold spring. Also encouraging that they show wet / unsettled Spain and Italy early on, indicating an Iberian / Genoa low perhaps  

Another good guide is the Weatherquest forward look, our @staplehurst is often presenting. They have a really good ensemble model based look at t+ 1,2,3,4 weeks, called this current spell well too. 

[Weather-history]

Warmest day of the year so far for a week on Sunday on ECM 12z?

[Frosty.]

Hmmmmmmmm.. is it winter or summer?.. it’s hard too tell with the Ecm 12z operational uppers?...oh boy, what a difference a week makes, this time last week I was saying how severe the cold spell looked for the sarf east..it’s so sad it’s come too this.   

 

Edited February 13, 2021 by Jon Snow

[nick sussex]

Exceptionally mild later next week and into the weekend . Should easily hit low 20s down here . 

February really can be a month of huge swings .  Solid agreement for a big warm up across the models .

I think last chance saloon time is in around ten days time where there might be a chance to edge the high further north and then it’s whether the models can take that further ne from there and drop some shortwave energy underneath it.

 

[Mike Poole]

28 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Exceptionally mild later next week and into the weekend . Should easily hit low 20s down here . 

February really can be a month of huge swings .  Solid agreement for a big warm up across the models .

I think last chance saloon time is in around ten days time where there might be a chance to edge the high further north and then it’s whether the models can take that further ne from there and drop some shortwave energy underneath it.

 

Agreed, Nick, but I think there is a reasonable probability of that happening around the turn of the month, maybe 40% chance.  But still maybe the form horse with the SSW lagged effects, continued UK high 35%, atlantic revving up 25%.

Edited February 13, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Panayiotis]

If we are to see cold return to the UK, I expect it would start with high pressure develop right over us; models signalling this towards the end of the month. I’m then looking for it to get undercut by the Atlantic propping it north towards Scandi or it retrogressing towards Greenland. Until we see pressure rise over us, I believe we are far away from a late chance for cold. 
 

Until then, we have quite a mild, stormy and unsettled week ahead with winds being the main concern. 

Edited February 13, 2021 by Panayiotis

[stodge]

Evening all

The cold spell which I think has been remarkable in terms of the longevity of cold here in lowland East London is ending and it certainly looked as though we would be embarking on a prolonged spell of quiet rather benign weather with mild air and little rain. There didn't seem much if any prospect of a further cold encroachment from the east with heights in Europe rather than further north and too much energy going into the northern arm of the jet.

Let's see how it looks tonight:

T+120 (Thursday 18th), T+192 (Sunday 21st) and T+240 (Tuesday 23rd) charts from GEM, GFS OP, Parallel and ECM respectively:

T+120:

T+192:

 

T+240:

Nothing for cold fans in the next 10 days at all on tonight's evidence. The general pattern reflected across all the models is to have the HP sink into Europe with a brief unsettled spell at the end of the coming week but the heights to the south and south east become more dominant and push the Atlantic systems further to the north and west. From there, GEM and GFS OP build heights over the British Isles but both Parallel and ECM keep the core of heights more to the south east. It may get a little colder if the HP settled over the British Isles but otherwise it's mild or very mild all the way. I suspect it won't be as mild/warm as it was late February 2019 but it will begin to feel more spring like.

Looking further ahead, GFS OP, Parallel and Control at T+312 and T+384 respectively:

A glimmer of interest at the very end of the OP at the turn of the month but both Control and Parallel remain mild and benign to month end.

Conclusion: fans of an early spring will be salivating at tonight's charts as there look plenty of prospects for some very mild and settled conditions in the second half of February and within a few days the recent cold spell will be a distant memory. It's possible we'll see the anticyclone sit over or very close to the British Isles and if we can keep the PV away (as OP does) there's an opportunity for renewed amplification but that's still a fortnight away.

[swebby]

7 hours ago, Robbie Coldrain said:

People always says how hard it is to shift a cold block, but in reality it never seems to be a problem.  7-10 days is generally all we can manage before the mild / Atlantic finds a way in. Yes there are exceptions to this, but they are rare.   

Think this may depend on context?

When it is invoked to say a breakdown will not happen despite all the models saying breakdown, then yes, you have a fair point. 

There is however to my mind, a regular window in the modelling of an Easterly that actually lands, where the models all tend to being over progressive in regards to it's duration. This current one being no exception, when it went from being the mother of all easterlies to the models then saying a Sunday to Wednesday affair only.  If someone says the block is being underestimated during this commonly observed model swing they will often be correct.

[Zak M]

Anyone fancy a BBQ next week?

   

High teens very likely in this set-up.  It should feel warm in the sunshine.

All in FI though.

Edited February 13, 2021 by Zak M

[Don]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Could be one more wave, if the NAM plots on Stratobserve are anything to go by, but it is based on 0z GFS:

It will be interesting to see if that comes off, for a strong SSW like the one we had, effects should be lasting a couple of months so timely for a final bout of cold around the turn of the month.

Winter's last chance saloon before it's banished to the history books?!

[Iceman2606]

ECM 12z on fire

[syed2878]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Interesting that Tim,possible late ongoings from that mashed troposphere! I wouldn't rule out that outcome at all..On a more lighthearted note im sure many will be rubbing there hands in glee if those Mediterranean areas have a cool and unsettled time of it,especially being as a travel ban may still be in place  

 Interesting that because if you look at certain organisation the threat of developing snow showers from the east has gone and disruptive snow from the forecast called is good when there is snow about what we had this week seven days is enough for that kind of cold. I cannot see a another gold set up like we had modelled don’t really show that either. 

[mb018538]

ECM day 8-10 looks great to me. I like a bit of cold, but we’ve had a week of very cold stuff now.....time for a total flip and temps into the mid to high teens if that ECM comes off. Raw data has a few 16-18c patches at day 8-10. Spring isn’t far off

[Gowon]

The not very reliable JMA would surely lead to cold before the month's out?