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Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
1 hour ago, Robbie Coldrain said:

People always says how hard it is to shift a cold block, but in reality it never seems to be a problem.  7-10 days is generally all we can manage before the mild / Atlantic finds a way in. Yes there are exceptions to this, but they are rare.   

This I agree with.

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Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey

GFS 6Z depicting some lovely, mild weather for next week (IMO!) to balance the recent frigid temperatures we've had in the SE. 

phwoar.thumb.png.db071c59663217d435c8a7dc3bff722d.png

Edited by Stabilo19
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Not posted for a while..go figure..,...but the ECM 0z op grabbed my attention..wow..talk about an early taste of spring?...just so you know, I’m still a coldie, but I’m also a realist?..whatever that is..hmm...anyway, I’m sad too say the cold is over..tears aplenty ....but there’s a mild spell imminently...oh my!..they say a week is a long time in politics..a week ago I was looking forward too a freeze..now I’m looking forward too mild crap..go figure!
  • 5EDC7BD8-3DE0-4CFB-87FE-2EF25A150CD1.thumb.png.88328d4f56d40ddb61bef0e33dd0907d.pngDDB24333-E2ED-40EF-ABDB-2700050FB328.thumb.png.0352b164fdc4adca0cf80a626376697e.pngC327A633-0D95-401A-BAF9-3F42704E0BCC.thumb.gif.879b7590ae721fa333d934b82e57e9da.gif3AE6B5A3-A131-468B-A90F-9A840158D2FE.thumb.gif.5d83ca295f1be6ceb4905e84917d7cfe.gif
  •  

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Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
11 minutes ago, Griff said:

Gem is far more interesting earlier, 150

gemnh-0-150.png

For sure, an early taste of spring.?..,well, that’s what I’ve been reading on here for the last several days..yeah..I’m a lurker!

FB15AEF4-03E0-44C0-9813-8A7EC9B3D8B6.thumb.png.3fb7edee14d133c866eeeccfcc2e0ae7.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Scratching around for some interest here ! The PV seems to wind up itself up and then deflates and splinters later on . Only then is there a realistic chance of getting the high further north .

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Just now, Jon Snow said:

For sure, an early taste of spring.?..,well, that’s what I’ve been reading on here for the last several days..yeah..I’m a lurker!

FB15AEF4-03E0-44C0-9813-8A7EC9B3D8B6.thumb.png.3fb7edee14d133c866eeeccfcc2e0ae7.pngB6CB4BBC-B77C-4C25-91F4-C739A1BADBD4.thumb.png.a910cb37fb5f4debdcd8e023ca81a0f1.png

You'll love the gfs op at 270, beautiful omega block, with us stuck in the middle enjoying warmth 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

UKMO t144

Well hello again Greenland vortex,long time no see. 

146428438_UN144-21(4).thumb.gif.f4626360bb878ffed3e91509460b65a2.gif

Now if you could have just stayed away for a couple of weeks more so that we could have seen Winter out with more snow it would have finished the season off nicely for coldies.

As it is we are transiting to milder by Monday and then back to our usual setup as the south westerlies take over.It still looks like a high will build somewhere around the UK towards week 2 so i guess that would bring some dry weather,maybe some colder nights again depending on the wind flow and cloud breaks.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Griff said:

You'll love the gfs op at 270, beautiful omega block

yeah, beautiful..,keep flying the cold flag..great job!

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

For sure, an early taste of spring.?..,well, that’s what I’ve been reading on here for the last several days..yeah..I’m a lurker!

FB15AEF4-03E0-44C0-9813-8A7EC9B3D8B6.thumb.png.3fb7edee14d133c866eeeccfcc2e0ae7.png

Enjoy! 

gemnh-0-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

Wow talk about a quick vortex recovery even after the battering its had over the last couple of months.....i take my hat off to you sir

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
3 minutes ago, Don said:

Anyone else get the feeling with the current charts, you may as well be searching for cold in July/August?!

Yes it might seem that way but I’m going to give it a few more days. If the PV winds itself up and then quickly deflates going by the GFS trend then there’s still some hope for the end of February into early March .

I’m not a fan of spring cold as you always have that what if feeling , unless you get something outlandish like 2018 !

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
4 minutes ago, Don said:

Anyone else get the feeling with the current charts, you may as well be searching for cold in July/August?!

Some of us will Don sometimes my friend the models look to be pointing towards nothingness...when all of a sudden Boom...the output flips on its heads. I feel perhaps the models are reacting to a strengthening of the strat...they mabe overplaying its strength and positioning. I think we still have enough of a mess in the trop to have plenty of doubts as to where we are heading beyond a week. The next 7 days do look set in stone,but I'm confident that its beyond this point that we may see the idea from the models of importing Heights to a more favourable position..Namely the N/NW or NE.

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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

@bluearmy are you still hoping a final downwelling will increase the chances of another cold snap/spell?

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes it might seem that way but I’m going to give it a few more days. If the PV winds itself up and then quickly deflates going by the GFS trend then there’s still some hope for the end of February into early March .

I’m not a fan of spring cold as you always have that what if feeling , unless you get something outlandish like 2018 !

Could that be a result of a final downwelling wave as Bluearmy has alluded to?

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