Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Pub run T138, fuelling a high pressure north bit like UKMO:

A65B3D0B-A442-4DEA-BDFE-FBB8D74E33CF.thumb.jpeg.b98654ea1db74ffeb25eb2a6fcf01b8f.jpeg

Edit, having watched this and the // I think I might turn in now!  More runs needed...

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Edit, having watched this and the // I think I might turn in now!  More runs needed...

Oh dear......

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Fairly quiet in here today, must be signs mild weather is on the horizon given we are in February.

The models are all in sync at the moment, high pressure sinking into Europe, low pressure sitting out to our west, end result a mild S/SW feed. Rain for western and north west parts, drier further south east with some sunshine. All rather humdrum compared to the last week.

The atlantic does look weak though and there is every likelihood heights to the south and east will build back through the UK as we enter last week of the month, and thereafter may have an easy ride of building to our north.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Fairly quiet in here today, must be signs mild weather is on the horizon given we are in February.

Yes, I think this thread will be rather slow moving for the next few days at least!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
1 minute ago, Don said:

Yes, I think this thread will be rather slow moving for the next few days at least!

Give us all time to catch up on some sleep.Find it fascinating model watching this winter.Amazing how the models seem to be firming up on mild weather now for next 10-12 days as it was just a couple days it looked even money we could be going cold again from 20th February.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

I’m seeing 20C potential on pub run into following weekend a February 2019 repeat, its perishingly cold in London at the moment I wouldn’t be upset - then one last hoorah. Closer to time this could easily trend much colder but interesting all the same this would be an unprecedented shift. 

46279E49-DCAE-407B-9DE0-911E82695A6A.thumb.png.457df316343c6cdd29f814284ddedf9a.png9A17006F-FA3F-44FD-A18B-B9B6B960798F.thumb.png.2ecb25e54ec03592688c3c25537b7303.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

Give us all time to catch up on some sleep.Find it fascinating model watching this winter.Amazing how the models seem to be firming up on mild weather now for next 10-12 days as it was just a couple days it looked even money we could be going cold again from 20th February.

Amazing how this time last week we were looking at a potentially historic February!  I wonder where we will be this time next week?!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m seeing 20C potential on pub run into following weekend a February 2019 repeat, its perishingly cold in London at the moment I wouldn’t be upset - then one last hoorah. Closer to time this could easily trend much colder but interesting all the same this would be an unprecedented shift. 

 

I for one would not be happy.  20C in February is simply not right!

Edited by Don
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
10 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Model depictions of cold at ten days -- fantasy island.

Model depictions of mild at ten days -- guaranteed gulch

What are your thoughts for the end of February and March, Roger?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Wow, very strong signal in the GEFS at day 9 for something akin to a Spanish plume. Doesn't mean they are right but rare to see such strong agreement on something like that at day 9. Shame its not a couple of weeks later at we could have seen some really good temps. Just a bit early though and southerlies at the surface in Feb are not always as warm in reality as the uppers suggest as its traveling over a still cold landmass.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Get the alignment right and we could be pushing 20c in some parts. GFS shows raw values of 17c. Would feel absolutely lovely after this cold spell and a winter that has seemingly dragged on forever.

My interest in winter these days lies roughly from 1st December through to mid Feb.

Seems ever more that we are heading for a February 2019 type event which I would not like and find the prospects rather horrifying!  However, you just know these charts will come off!  Have you have given up on the idea for cold in March?

Edited by Don
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

We're moving back into familiar territory for models what with the effects of SSW becoming less of a factor as well. 

FI has recently been at close range but I reckon we'll soon see FI become further out. The 10 day charts are likely to verify now (especially being mild charts). 

We have one more day of proper cold but after that all eyes on spring and warm depicting model runs!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
50 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m seeing 20C potential on pub run into following weekend a February 2019 repeat, its perishingly cold in London at the moment I wouldn’t be upset - then one last hoorah. Closer to time this could easily trend much colder but interesting all the same this would be an unprecedented shift. 

46279E49-DCAE-407B-9DE0-911E82695A6A.thumb.png.457df316343c6cdd29f814284ddedf9a.png9A17006F-FA3F-44FD-A18B-B9B6B960798F.thumb.png.2ecb25e54ec03592688c3c25537b7303.png

Wonder how many times in history this has happened a weather station in the uk records -23c and then another +20c in February.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Nope!

Ok, that's good to hear as I don't think I will see more snow for the rest of February (not that I've had much anyway!).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

We're moving back into familiar territory for models what with the effects of SSW becoming less of a factor as well. 

Possibly but I'm not sure the effects of the SSW are necessarily done with us yet?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

Get the BBQ's ready!

1609143411_Capture1.thumb.PNG.d2740a39d9282bcd91d698d39e83e585.PNGCapture.thumb.PNG.560e8a0d82dff6713f72cc4d7f9d91a4.PNG

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, Iceman2606 said:

Get the BBQ's ready!

1609143411_Capture1.thumb.PNG.d2740a39d9282bcd91d698d39e83e585.PNGCapture.thumb.PNG.560e8a0d82dff6713f72cc4d7f9d91a4.PNG

And to think only a week ago I was comparing this February to 1986...... 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
13 minutes ago, Don said:

Possibly but I'm not sure the effects of the SSW are necessarily done with us yet?

Good evening, on the decline I'd say. The PV normally weakens in early spring anyway where the Westerly winds won't be as anomalously weak. Not ruling out cold snaps, but I reckon the models will be a bit more predictable/ reliable in picking up trends.

Edited by Bradley in Kent
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
3 minutes ago, Don said:

Possibly but I'm not sure the effects of the SSW are necessarily done with us yet?

I could still see a chance for another cold easterly. Maybe 40% chance for something around the turn of the month? Only thing is that if it happens I think it will be a bone dry stratus fest rather than a snowy easterly and if that's the case I think I'd rather have a Bartlett. Just watch a snowstorm pop up on the morning runs now . A big push north of warmth across the UK would logically promote a cold easterly to follow. Pressure would probably be very high though, so little convective potential. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Quite possible that March might bring the most Atlantic spell of the extended winter period like in 2019, if anything like the current model runs comes off. All a long way off though and will all depend on how high pressure to the east behaves towards month's end.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

I could still see a chance for another cold easterly. Maybe 40% chance for something around the turn of the month? Only thing is that if it happens I think it will be a bone dry stratus fest rather than a snowy easterly and if that's the case I think I'd rather have a Bartlett. Just watch a snowstorm pop up on the morning runs now . A big push north of warmth across the UK would logically promote a cold easterly to follow. Pressure would probably be very high though, so little convective potential. 

Just out of interest, why do you think it would be dry rather than snowy?

EDIT - you actually explained that in you post doh! 

Edited by Don
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...