Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Don]

27 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Looks like Feb 2019 could be making a return

Well, there goes the below average February!

[Theresnoway]

Evening All,

Does anybody know if any of the model ensemble data is available as a data file, as opposed to pre-constructed chart form?

I’d like to start plotting different runs for the same date and see how much they vary as they get closer to the period they’re predicting.

Thanks

[feb1991blizzard]

Only 6 decent GEFS members and even they have been put back - only right at the end now.

[yamkin]

I have been following the CFS model for a few months in preparation for this winter and I have been very impressed so far

 

Interesting CFS 6Z model updated trend for next Wednesday 17th Feb. HP setting in allowing a very cold feed to commence

(As Always: Subject To Change)

 

Following the CFS 6Z trend for the 18th Feb, HP is more established with a very cold feed flowing towards the eastern part of the UK

(As Always: Subject To Change)

 

Continuing the CFS 6Z trend for the 19th Feb, HP again is established with a very cold feed especially to the UK's E & SE

(As Always: Subject To Change)

 

Continuing the CFS 6Z trend for the 26th Feb, HP again is established with a very cold feed especially to the UK's N/NE/E/SE

(As Always: Subject To Change)

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, yamkin said:

I have been following the CFS model for a few months in preparation for this winter and I have been very impressed so far

 

Interesting CFS 6Z model updated trend for next Wednesday 17th Feb. HP setting in allowing a very cold feed to commence

(As Always: Subject To Change)

 

Following the CFS 6Z trend for the 18th Feb, HP is more established with a very cold feed flowing towards the eastern part of the UK

(As Always: Subject To Change)

 

 

Continuing the CFS 6Z trend for the 19th Feb, HP again is established with a very cold feed especially to the UK's E & SE

(As Always: Subject To Change)

 

 

Continuing the CFS 6Z trend for the 26th Feb, HP again is established with a very cold feed especially to the UK's N/NE/E/SE

(As Always: Subject To Change)

 

Not a prayer that Easterly will verify at D6 when cross suites total more than 100 members and not a single one backs it, if ever there was the dictionary definition of a huge synoptic outlier, this is it.

EDIT : anyone who thinks whole suites flip completely to show a colder outcome at this range, here's your perfect opportunity to prove it to me. Good luck!

Edited February 12, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[yamkin]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Not a prayer that Easterly will verify at D6 when cross suites total more than 100 members and not a single one backs it, if ever there was the dictionary definition of a huge synoptic outlier, this is it.

0Z was also on the same page. Let's see what 12Z unfolds. CFS has been very good this winter. I'm not indicating that the CFS 0Z & 6Z will pull off, but it's nice to see a model run like this

[Tim Bland]

CFS might be doing ok at picking out patterns long term but I’d bet my house it won’t correctly pick out a change at day 5 when it’s not backed by any other model. Our only hope at an easterly is day 10+ and even that is now looking like a slim chance with a UK high the most likely outcome at day 10. 

[Battleground Snow]

No joy from the ECM sisters up till 192 either,

today has been very poor for a quick return to a cold pattern. I think we have been spoilt this winter (at least in terms of the rollercoaster of model watching).

Let's hope the pub run can pull something out the bag.

 

Edited February 12, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

CFS might be doing ok at picking out patterns long term but I’d bet my house it won’t correctly pick out a change at day 5 when it’s not backed by any other model. Our only hope at an easterly is day 10+ and even that is now looking like a slim chance with a UK high the most likely outcome at day 10. 

My only contribution, I suspect, this evening... Just for pure comedy value alone, I would love to see this post age very badly... Come on CFS, you can do it! 

[zubzero]

Here's a chart we have not seen much of this Winter

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/para/runs/2021021212/ECM1-168.GIF?12-0 

 

Was hoping for a settled and dry end to Winter. Sadly if the UKMO and ECM have picked up on the Atlantic winning out. It could end up being a mild wet n windy end to Winter

[Tim Bland]

12 minutes ago, zubzero said:

Here's a chart we have not seen much of this Winter

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/para/runs/2021021212/ECM1-168.GIF?12-0 

 

Was hoping for a settled and dry end to Winter. Sadly if the UKMO and ECM have picked up on the Atlantic winning out. It could end up being a mild wet n windy end to Winter

Looks ok to me if it’s a dry end to winter you are looking for

[feb1991blizzard]

The ECM parallel seems to pump out the same charts as the current op, no difference at 240, if that is the modus operandi then i can't see much point in it becoming operational, it needs a big improvement at those kind of ranges to make it a worthwhile forecasting tool, perhaps i suppose they are more thinking of miniscule adjustments to slightly improve the much shorter timeframes perhaps?

[nick sussex]

Unusually good agreement between the ECM and GFS at day ten.

The Euro high ridges north west as the upstream pattern develops sufficient amplitude and then both leave the carrot dangling of looking ne once again !

Not sure I have the stamina for this ! 

[Man With Beard]

Can I have this one back in a couple of months? Straight line draw from the south. ALIWBM.

Edit - ECM maxes for D8/D9 up to 17C (does it also underdo maxima in warm winter conditions?)

Edited February 12, 2021 by Man Without Beard

[Cold Winter Night]

46 minutes ago, Theresnoway said:

Evening All,

Does anybody know if any of the model ensemble data is available as a data file, as opposed to pre-constructed chart form?

I’d like to start plotting different runs for the same date and see how much they vary as they get closer to the period they’re predicting.

Thanks

GEFS is produced by NOAA-NCEP.

Their data are available here:

NOMADS-NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System

NOMADS.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

I would not be surprised though if it were quite a puzzle to get those complex data sorted out.
It would not be my favourite chore, but perhaps you're a data freak?

 

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The ECM parallel seems to pump out the same charts as the current op, no difference at 240, if that is the modus operandi then i can't see much point in it becoming operational, it needs a big improvement at those kind of ranges to make it a worthwhile forecasting tool, perhaps i suppose they are more thinking of miniscule adjustments to slightly improve the much shorter timeframes perhaps?

I think the GFS // runs are usually a major upgrade (this one has almost double the vertical resolution), but I think the ECM // runs are fairly minor upgrades?  

[bradymk]

Poorer output this evening for a quicker return to any cold.  A fairly large change from UKMO too from earlier runs.

GEFS showing very mild and mostly dry conditions after Day 6/7. Would be nice to at least stay dry if we can’t get the cold. Clear trend to higher temps after day 6/7 when comparing to the ENS yesterday.

Marco (Met) tweeted earlier today that they are expecting it to turn colder from the east as early as perhaps next Friday. Seems a long way away from that in tonight’s output but who knows...

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, bradymk said:

Poorer output this evening for a quicker return to any cold.  A fairly large change from UKMO too from earlier runs.

GEFS showing very mild and mostly dry conditions after Day 6/7. Would be nice to at least stay dry if we can’t get the cold. Clear trend to higher temps after day 6/7 when comparing to the ENS yesterday.

Marco (Met) tweeted earlier today that they are expecting it to turn colder from the east as early as perhaps next Friday. Seems a long way away from that in tonight’s output but who knows...

Despite tonight's output, worth remembering ecm ensembles still favoured MLB or HLB from D10 onwards. Will it be the same tonight?

[JimBob]

Looks like winter is over then, models looking good for a big warm up! 

[bradymk]

3 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Despite tonight's output, worth remembering ecm ensembles still favoured MLB or HLB from D10 onwards. Will it be the same tonight?

At this range too, MLB’s showing at Day 10 in the Ens could easily be positioned more favourably for us nearer the time. Which as we know can vastly change surface conditions. 

Day 10 on GEM could be very different for example if that block was further west come t+0

Hoping the EC Ens still hold some promise longer term

In the here and now, also hoping the front makes it to Cardiff tomorrow to see some snow out of this spell!

[Cold Winter Night]

About the cold vs mild battle:

Last week we expected that the models would underestimate the resilience of the cold block.
One week ago, the model output for Holland consistently showed 4-5 days in a row with daily maxima between -5c and -8c and minima below -15c. That is very cold air, and very difficult to move.

However, apparently the models across the board overestimated the depth of cold, because although we are seeing ice days in Holland, they are more -1c to 0c during the day, and between -5c and -10c during the night.
Less cold, therefore a less resilient cold block, more vulnerable to the Atlantic attack.

In other words: the models were wrong about the depth of cold (and the amount of snow), but right about the breakdown.

The current FI developments of new blocking and cold approaching are not very convincing yet, after seeing the 12z output.
There is a lot of scatter though. No solution is certain yet.

 

[Theresnoway]

26 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

GEFS is produced by NOAA-NCEP.

Their data are available here:

NOMADS-NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System

NOMADS.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

I would not be surprised though if it were quite a puzzle to get those complex data sorted out.
It would not be my favourite chore, but perhaps you're a data freak?

 

Superb, thanks for the link. I’m a wanna be data freak . There must be some kind of automation that could be set up to pull the latest data into a DB. I might just give it a go!

[Bradowl]

35 minutes ago, JimBob said:

Looks like winter is over then, models looking good for a big warm up! 

Yeah but does winter ever start in Somerset? 

[feb1991blizzard]

35 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Despite tonight's output, worth remembering ecm ensembles still favoured MLB or HLB from D10 onwards. Will it be the same tonight?

No unfortunately, slipping further and further South with every run at D10.

[JimBob]

1 minute ago, Bradowl said:

Yeah but does winter ever start in Somerset? 

We had a frost this week!!