Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Don]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS 18z are a good match with the EC46.

The latest EC46 is showing a coldish week 2 and 3.  Not seen the rest of the run.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

The latest EC46 is showing a coldish week 2 and 3.  Not seen the rest of the run.

Yes - 

 

Surface cold not frigid though - yet.

Edited February 11, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[yamkin]

I have been following the CFS model for a few months in preparation for this winter and I have been very impressed so far

 

Interesting CFS model trend for next Thursday 18th Feb. HP setting in allowing a very cold feed to commence (As Always: Subject To Change)

Following the CFS trend for the 21st Feb, HP is more established with a very cold feed flowing towards the eastern part of the UK (As Always: Subject To Change)

Continuing the CFS trend for the 24th Feb, HP again is established with a very cold feed especially to the UK's E & SE (As Always: Subject To Change)

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo at 144,

pretty consistent from yesterday, maybe a bit weaker pressure in Scandi, and the trough a little bit nearer to the UK

 

[Battleground Snow]

GFS has moved towards the Ukmo at 144. Last nights 18z run attached for comparison

 

Edited February 12, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Weather-history]

I think last February's record rainfall totals are safe this year......

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

2 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo at 144,

pretty consistent from yesterday, maybe a bit weaker pressure in Scandi, and the trough a little bit nearer to the UK

 

Considering the over night runs are consistently dog poo, it's an improvement, 

Let's look for a better day, and good 12z

[mulzy]

Pretty ordinary output this morning.  There are indications that we might finally get there on the ECM and ECM para but it’s messy, tortuous and slow with lots of hurdles to cross.

Edited February 12, 2021 by mulzy

[Battleground Snow]

13 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Pretty ordinary output this morning.  There are indications that we might finally get there on the ECM and ECM para but it’s messy, tortuous and slow with lots of hurdles to cross.

240 attached for both runs, Para preferred

Hopefully the EPS will improve this time 

[Nick F]

No quick way back to deep cold from the 00z runs, 00z GEFS T850 mean not really getting below 0C after the 14th, EC det. even shows a long draw southerly (Spanish Plume?!) from western Med / Iberia at day 9, but the WAA over western Europe does lead on to a Scandi high at day 10. 

Yesterday's 12z det. had a Scandi high too, so a possible trend for last 3rd of Feb going forward - but we need to see heights lower to the south of the Scandi high either from troughing moving in across SW Europe and/or cold air moving around and under the high from NW Russia, otherwise the high just sinks.

If we don't get the Scandi high to position favourably for one last bite back of cold before the end of meteorological winter, then there's still good chance we head towards the end of the month on a much drier note than has been the theme for most of the winter, with anticyclonic conditions in charge.

Edited February 12, 2021 by Nick F

[Djdazzle]

Why are the 0z runs nearly always the most progressive? Is there some sort of bias built in, because it happens far too often for it to be a random quirk.

[bumpydogz]

25 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Why are the 0z runs nearly always the most progressive? Is there some sort of bias built in, because it happens far too often for it to be a random quirk.

It's a myth.

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, bumpydogz said:

It's a myth.

I'd like to think so too, but you can't deny how often they seem to be the most progressive suite.

Anyone else looking forward to some spring warmth currently suggested by the models?

Edited February 12, 2021 by Djdazzle

[Robbie Coldrain]

Starting to look like deep cold may be done for this year. Perhaps a tame beast towards the end of Feb?

Thanks for all the excellent posts and analysis. 

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, Robbie Coldrain said:

Starting to look like deep cold may be done for this year. Perhaps a tame beast towards the end of Feb?

Thanks for all the excellent posts and analysis. 

Never say never - but unlike a lot on here, I would take spring warmth over cold in March any day of the week! Deep cold should be reserved for winter only.

The EC46 are hinting that cold may not be a completely done deal though.

[nick sussex]

Not the sharpness to the upstream troughing this morning .

So chances of a quicker return to some colder conditions looks unlikely although the trend is still to develop some blocking to the east and ne.

Quite a large spread on the ECM ensembles further east , looking at the orientation of that in terms of 850s a cluster of solutions have that cold angled more favourably towards the UK.

I think the earliest we could see some greater interest is realistically days 9 onwards so the last week of February.

It does look drier regardless , blocking is very much a firm favourite but still too early to know whether that will bring more springlike conditions or whether it will set up in a way to bring some deeper cold .

Edited February 12, 2021 by nick sussex

[Climate Man]

17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not the sharpness to the upstream troughing this morning .

So chances of a quicker return to some colder conditions looks unlikely although the trend is still to develop some blocking to the east and ne.

Quite a large spread on the ECM ensembles further east , looking at the orientation of that in terms of 850s a cluster of solutions have that cold angled more favourably towards the UK.

I think the earliest we could see some greater interest is realistically days 9 onwards so the last week of February.

It does look drier regardless , blocking is very much a firm favourite but still too early to know whether that will bring more springlike conditions or whether it will set up in a way to bring some deeper cold .

ECM certainly has a spring like look to it in the latter stages. If it stays clear, a large diurnal range. Feeling mild in the afternoon sun but sharp frosts overnight.  Surface cold yes but deep cold looks just out of reach currently. 

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

ECM certainly has a spring like look to it in the latter stages. If it stays clear, a large diurnal range. Feeling mild in the afternoon sun but sharp frosts overnight.  Surface cold yes but deep cold looks just out of reach currently. 

I think in terms of any deeper cold still a bit too early to rule that out . Although a quick return is unlikely the actual block set up to the ne is more favourable today although whether the pattern can back sufficiently west is the bigger question .

 

[Climate Man]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I think in terms of any deeper cold still a bit too early to rule that out . Although a quick return is unlikely the actual block set up to the ne is more favourable today although whether the pattern can back sufficiently west is the bigger question .

 

Don't disagree, was referring to a snapshot of day 10. Hopefully this is something to watch in the upcoming output.

[Beanz]

ECM certainly looking less cold and dare I say it a welcome introduction to spring.  I’m certainly not seeing any return to deep cold conditions in the models now.  Plenty of high pressure though to give us some nice dry sunny weather.    
 

It’s certainly been a fantastic winter of model watching that’s for sure.  

 

 

[carinthian]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think in terms of any deeper cold still a bit too early to rule that out . Although a quick return is unlikely the actual block set up to the ne is more favourable today although whether the pattern can back sufficiently west is the bigger question .

 

I agree . The UKMO chart at 144t shows a resurgence of the deeper cold air over Southern Norway. 

C

[winterof79]

9 minutes ago, carinthian said:

I agree . The UKMO chart at 144t shows a resurgence of the deeper cold air over Southern Norway. 

C

I have no issues with this I agree and ECM // strikingly similar

UKMO

ECM//

[johnholmes]

Update on anomaly charts on Friday 12 February

Ec-gfs and both show much as the past few days, a general westerly flow over the chart until the marked trough coming out of between Canada and Greenland and in the direction of Iberia  with ridging out of northern Scandinavia north to jan meyen and north then into the deep trough down to the black sea.

Noaa 6-10 is pretty much a copy of the other two and its 8-14 similar.

So major change in temperature levels with a sw flow at 500 into the uk for the foreseeable. A chance for some warmer weather from the frigid values of recent days. It also looks fairly unsettled/changeable but the detail, as always, will be given by the synoptic outputs. Hopefully some dry days with warm sunshine would be my request!

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[Timmytour]

I mentioned earlier in the week about the models starting to flip to show a return to milder weather. Not that I expected to be a permanent flip, but part of a see saw pattern of weather that will develop and take us into April, possibly delivering us a white Easter.

Of course many of us yearn for the entrenched cold that seemed to be on offer a week or so ago, and a winter that, if not 1947, gives us a taste of being a real classic. At one stage it looked from the models that we could be on the cusp of one, but it was not to be.  Still, at least for me it's been a change back to what I remember winters being like in general, and that in itself is a blessing!  It will always be tinged with that sense of disappointment as the promise of a foot of snow turned into the reality of barely a toenail of it. But I expect there to be at least another couple of bites of the cherry before March is out and, as I say, I wouldn't rule out one for April.  I think the easterly has built up a bit of muscle this winter and will want to flex it every now and then.  Furthermore I'm hopeful that this winter is a prelude to a run of winters we have that end up considerably colder than our recent average.  I'll still be dreaming of 1947 revisited again next year. The only thing is, when I see the models showing what seems to be it at T300, I'll know that even if we get it to T12, it doesn't always do exactly what it seemed to be saying on the tin!

[Don]

All looks a bit underwhelming this morning, but nothing is a given at the moment.  I for one am hoping for another cold shot late February into March as I like others have yet to see much snow, despite it being a cold winter.  This winter has reminded me of 1995/96 in some ways in the sense that I saw no substantial snow then either in what was an even colder winter!