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Model output discussion 10/02/21

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
39 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I hadn’t realised that there was an ec para and eps running ...checking back the last few para ops shows much stronger support for a scandi ridge of sorts than the current op has shown ......

Interesting 2021-2022 coming up on this forum if that becomes the op then if that is showing an even more amplified solution than the current op (which already has a tendency to over amplify, toys 'r' us share price will be through the roof as soon as it takes over from op!

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The GFS 18 hrs run isn’t as sharp with the upstream troughing with less dig south and keeps shortwave energy attached to that at day 6 compared to the ECM.

This will then pull that troughing further east .

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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS 18 hrs run isn’t as sharp with the upstream troughing with less dig south and keeps shortwave energy attached to that at day 6 compared to the ECM.

This will then pull that troughing further east .

Which is something we don't want ?

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Day_9 Enthusiast

Day_9

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff
Posted
1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

A Scandinavia high that transfers to Greenland with the Atlantic undercutting

@WINTRY WALES

 

Webp.net-gifmaker.gif

That delivered 14 foot drifts in the Vale of Glamorgan - at sea level too!!

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

Which is something we don't want ?

Yes it’s crucial that the shortwave ejects cleanly, the para is flatter than the ECM but looks like it will just manage to eject that cleanly .

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, nick sussex said:

Yes it’s crucial that the shortwave ejects cleanly, the para is flatter than the ECM but looks like it will just manage to eject that cleanly .

Para looks cleaner 

gfsnh-0-150.png

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
1 minute ago, Griff said:

Para looks cleaner 

gfsnh-0-150.png

It has that double high to the ne like the ECM but earlier that flatter troughing makes it hard work .

 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

The gfs 18z is rubbish but it's cousin looks to be doing well

it has some consistency...

18z 114 v's 12 120...

gfseu-0-114.thumb.png.37b44b82c52e89300ac316e045538f59.pnggfseu-0-120.thumb.png.f57d03bd38706bc99e746884cad512c8.png

the 18z is a slight upgrade on the 12z because it has more of a neg tilt to the low west of the UK(red arrow),the WAA looks to be about the same but the 18z is more amplified into Svalbard(black circle) than the 12z and more importantly has a cutback SW of the trough in Scandinavia as opposed to the N-S flow from the 12z

these are the little things/features that we need to see upgrade in future runs

and look how amplified it looks now at 168 compared to the 12z 174...

gfsnh-0-168.thumb.png.21b601c66fa6ef44c004f1681af021df.pnggfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.0bbba6475a4b6740940e9cac2f08fea5.png

this is a massive upgrade folks and it happens so early on at 114...

great outs today and tonight,...and i am out...

night all

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Encouraging the GFS runs have trending to the euros tonight, more so the para, they didn't look much alike in the 12z runs 

Ukmo at 4am, I'll see you then.

 

gfsnh-0-162 (10).png

4 am ! That’s dedication ! Hopefully you’ll be rewarded with some good early outputs .

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

PARA bit the dust now as well - great start to the 18z suite - over to the GEFS!

 

EDIT : lets not be greedy, after this start i will take 10 members below -5c towards the end of the run with 3 or 4 flatliners below -10c.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
2 hours ago, Iceman2606 said:

* Just for fun *

February heatwave anyone?

Capture.thumb.PNG.e50e847a2d0b17a53437e4bcfc955785.PNG

The GFS underestimates the temperatures by a few degrees as well, so you'd be looking at around 16c widely if that chart verified!

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

The GFS underestimates the temperatures by a few degrees as well, so you'd be looking at around 16c widely if that chart verified!

Lovely jubbly. Let’s hope the GFS is correct. Sick of being cold for cold’s sake now (which it is with no snow).

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Lovely jubbly. Let’s hope the GFS is correct. Sick of being cold for cold’s sake now (which it is with no snow).

I think that could be a hint of reverse psychology!  

I do not want those temperatures until late March at the earliest!

Edited by Don
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UKSupercell Enthusiast

UKSupercell

Posted
  • Location: East Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells n snow
  • Location: East Hants
Posted

Newbie question here....I lurk on this side of the forum as I enjoy reading everyone's posts and analyses of model outcomes etc.....but can someone tell me, what the "pub" run actually means?! I think I know but I'll let someone answer the question first..... 

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

Newbie question here....I lurk on this side of the forum as I enjoy reading everyone's posts and analyses of model outcomes etc.....but can someone tell me, what the "pub" run actually means?! I think I know but I'll let someone answer the question first..... 

The 18z run comes out generally when people used to be in the pubs.

It also gets accused of being  drunk, as it has a tendency to throw out epic FI charts which rarely come to fruition.

Edited by Battleground Snow
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

GEFS 18z are a good match with the EC46.

EDIT : or will be anyway.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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UKSupercell Enthusiast

UKSupercell

Posted
  • Location: East Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells n snow
  • Location: East Hants
Posted
14 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The 18z run comes out generally when people used to be in the pubs.

It also gets accused of being  drunk, as it has a tendency to throw out epic FI charts which rarely come to fruition.


Cheers, as I thought! I think it's great terminology....whoever coined it first, hats off! 

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