Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Tim Bland]

Wow ...that’s one mighty block let’s hope for a widespread snowy spell before spring

Edited February 11, 2021 by Tim Bland

[CentralSouthernSnow]

Are any of the models showing lows diving south and cutting under? 

[Allseasons-Si]

At 216,..and this just gets better and better.

...and there is only one way we are going from there,...back into the freezer,day 10 should look good.

Edited February 11, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Really does look as though there is a wall there in the atlantic at day 6,and a sharp one at that.

Strat related?

 

Not another invisible block, surely!!  Actually in this instance I think it is the actual block in the troposphere, cold air being difficult to shift.

[ICE COLD]

I feel the extended eps will trend colder this evening . Lovely At day 9 . 

[tight isobar]

Just to sum up.. confidence growing on another polar continental incursion.. but as much as I’m sure we’ll get there I think a slow evolution -process sums things up.. however again I think the two day window @saturday.. will start model alignment in some stonkers  coming bk in the game!! Via the raws ...Ciao fa-now

Edited February 11, 2021 by tight isobar

[Chesil View]

Pretty much following the set up as laid out  in the meto extended forecast.  Namely high pressure to build west to the north of the UK.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I feel the extended eps will trend colder this evening . Lovely At day 9 . 

Let's hope it's more than a kitten this time! a beast would be great, but even a cold E'ly will do

Edited February 11, 2021 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Cloud 10]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not another invisible block, surely!!  Actually in this instance I think it is the actual block in the troposphere, cold air being difficult to shift.

It would be interesting to see the jet profile at that timeframe.

[Tim Bland]

Just need a way to suppress that high to our south. Perhaps we can get a shortwave to undercut at day 8 / 9?

[ICE COLD]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Let's hope i't more than a kitten this time! a beast would be great, but even a cold E'ly will do

TBF mate I’m just hoping for a dumping of snow (proper dumping ) . Bit of a let down here snow wise with this spell . 

[nick sussex]

It’s a shame that the sinking high earlier removes so much of that deeper cold from the east . But at least we’re back in the game for another chance at an easterly . The ECM looks somewhat messy to the east and ne . But to be in with a chance to begin with you need that upstream troughing to sharpen up sufficiently and dig far enough south earlier .

 

[NewEra21]

Without wanting to go too off topic, but we're now seeing signs from the models of what the Met office forecasts have been saying. Cooling down weekend commencing 20th February. 

One thing is for sure this winter, any mild spells have mostly always been cut shorter than first anticipated. Beginning to look like things could be about to repeat themselves once more!

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

It’s a shame that the sinking high earlier removes so much of that deeper cold from the east . But at least we’re back in the game for another chance at an easterly . The ECM looks somewhat messy to the east and ne . But to be in with a chance to begin with you need that upstream troughing to sharpen up sufficiently and dig far enough south earlier .

 

Plenty of time for it to all sharpen up mate . I really feel we will get another easterly by the end of feb / start on March . Fingers crossed  

[Sawel]

ECM parallel @ 168!  Very nice

 

[Griff]

13 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

I was going to have a break from model watching but the ECM 12z at t216 has definitely drawn me back in again. The chase for the next easterly begins here.

Agreed, I had similar thoughts last night, interest seemed to have been extinguished this morning but this...  

More runs needed

Edit: usual thanks to those with the stamina remaining to keep following, run after run

Edited February 11, 2021 by Griff

[Howie]

Watching this battle between the Atlantic and the block has been very entertaining 

[ICE COLD]

ECM // T192 

Edited February 11, 2021 by ICE COLD

[iceman1991]

More runs needed guys

[Anthony Burden]

Good evening all ECM beginning to show a very short uptake in temperatures before returning to 

the freezer.As I have mentioned in previous blogs my suspicion that the Atlantic milder air 

might never happen,that said a possible 2 or 3 days of average temperatures is just possible 

before pressure rises again.Will be looking to see where the high originates and orientation 

that follows,my take make the best of some milder air it won’t last long.

[Mike Poole]

A few thoughts now we’ve seen the ECM.  I think that calls of winter is over are very premature.  If we’ve learned nothing from SSW events in the past decade, (not many I know), it is that the effect can last for at least two months and the pattern can wax and wane during that period.  Look at the 2018 BFTE, 2 good events, separated by about a fortnight, and things didn’t get back to normal until mid-April when there was a sudden switch to warm (something I am quietly confident about happening this year, for those who like warmth!).

I think that a reload to cold is highly likely, and while the sun will be stronger, it might lead to more snow, we’ve had very low temperatures recorded during this spell, but I’m not averse to a bit more marginality if we get another bite at the cherry.  

Worth looking at the strat NAM chart (yesterdays GFS 0z - hasn’t updated today):

They seem to have flipped the colours so blue is westerly and red is easterly, which confused me to start with, but you can see highlighted the SSW, and also the current spell at the surface, but the westerlies have some way to go yet to make it down in the forecast period.  Winter 2020/21 isn’t done yet.  

[Cloud 10]

ECM pub run with cold air inc. at the end.

 

[ICE COLD]

Wish we could of seen day 11 on the ECM// 

[icykev]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Let's hope it's more than a kitten this time! a beast would be great, but even a cold E'ly will do

Lets hope its more the Siberian snow leopard this time . 

In the here and now, Harmonie hopefully is correct going into tonight for Ireland, hasn't got going here yet, just in the west☹

And tomorrow night coming into the UK 

 

[Purga]

ECM parallel follows a very similar path & we end up with this at day 10