Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Andypvfc]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Come on a bit late today as my nana has just passed away this evening after having covid!!!lived a 100 long years!!!what a fella!!!any snow on the 18 models for sunday monday?!!all is not lost it seems on the 18z!!?

So sorry mate. Thoughts are with you and family

[Mucka]

Yes Please

 

[KTtom]

Yes if you have had your cold fix and are after some spring warmth, then this mornings GEM and GFS are for you, after a brief atlantic push next week, high settles over or to the south east of the uk...dry, hopefully sunny and warm. There is something vety odd if the Met dont change thier forcast this afternoon.

 

[KTtom]

UKMO day 6....Also heading the Spring route:

 

[JoeShmoe]

2 hours ago, Mucka said:

Yes Please

 

Just the 24c degree swing from this morning then ! That would feel quite pleasant in the sun to be honest 

[PiscesStar]

55 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Yes if you have had your cold fix and are after some spring warmth, then this mornings GEM and GFS are for you, after a brief atlantic push next week, high settles over or to the south east of the uk...dry, hopefully sunny and warm. There is something vety odd if the Met dont change thier forcast this afternoon.

 

I'm hoping they keep it the same 

[sheikhy]

Flat as a pancake this morning and with that i think its time to call it!!unless we get exceptional cold now its done and dusted!!it has been a really good cold spell for my part of the uk at least and a much better winter than the last 2!!im glad i got my snow fix this week!!phew!!

[Rocheydub]

ECM goes a different route! A propping up a Scandi hi of sorts. Doesn’t orientate too favourably for these islands, but it’s again, something to watch! Day 8-10

[Faronstream]

No need to take the 00Z runs seriously, in 9 out of 10 cases they always go bananas on the mild side. And there is still a trend that the last week of february will go colder than average again.

[Gowon]

The Atlantic doesn't even get in on the morning runs which will be good for drying the ground and hopefully we get one more shot at snowy conditions later on this month 

[JimBob]

The models are pretty much in agreement that the cold weather is set to leave the UK shores fairly quickly early next week, with an early taste of spring for some of England, low teens possible.  Looks fairly dry moving forward with some chilly nights, though mostly above freezing across the entire UK.  Ties in nicely with the school holiday down here anyway! 

Edited February 11, 2021 by JimBob

[mulzy]

Fwiw, the extended mean eps continues the rather mild high pressure dominated scene. Early spring rather than late winter!

[nick sussex]

Not enough dig south in the upstream trough and not enough sharpness which leads to the less than exciting outputs this morning . 

Ironically it’s the Euros which have more potential today than the GFS which is the flattest with that .

I’d give it to this evening to see whether that trough set up changes as that does have a large knock on effect moving forward.

 

 

[Chesil View]

Whilst posters commenting his mornings ecm are noting how the set up gives mild southerlies. It is also worth noting that the last two frames shows the beginnings of retrogression northwestwards which further on could place the high in line with the current Meto outlook for the end of the month.

[Battleground Snow]

Both ECM runs aren't a million miles away from some of the GFS para runs at 192.

It's a  shame it's got stuck at 129 this morning although it looks to have broadly come in line with the other models

Sunday to Tuesday looks over a 95% chance of milder air getting in now, but after this is where the interest may pick up again.

 

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Man With Beard]

So on the ECM this morning, most days next week get close to or exceed double figures - even into the teens on a couple of days. Meanwhile the Netherlands start the week near zero, struggle to get a lot warmer, and end the week going back towards zero. A fine line in these set ups between Atlantic air and Continental air. However, much more typically for the UK, we look likely to rest just on the milder side for a while.

[Tim Bland]

GEM still gives some snow Monday...

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM still gives some snow Monday...

It’s a shame the other models aren’t supporting that . It develops that kink in the flow holding the cold to the north east of that . At the moment I think the overall consensus is for a brief spell of snow in the west and sw before the cold limps it’s way out.  

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s a shame the other models aren’t supporting that . It develops that kink in the flow holding the cold to the north east of that . At the moment I think the overall consensus is for a brief spell of snow in the west and sw before the cold limps it’s way out.  

Indeed Nick.

All things considered its been a better winter than many previous efforts in the last 20 years or so.

Glosea got it badly wrong with its raging +NAO for Jan and Feb.

I ponder if the seasonal models are worth the cyberspace they take up TBH,wasn't it last year Glosea went cold and we got the opposite?

 

[That ECM]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Indeed Nick.

All things considered its been a better winter than many previous efforts in the last 20 years or so.

Glosea got it badly wrong with its raging +NAO for Jan and Feb.

I ponder if the seasonal models are worth the cyberspace they take up TBH,wasn't it last year Glosea went cold and we got the opposite?

 

Therefore they are very useful. Just expect the opposite.

[MJB]

Game over as far as I can see with regards a decent snowy breakdown , and probably for Winter .........................IMO

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, MJB said:

Game over as far as I can see with regards a decent snowy breakdown , and probably for Winter .........................IMO

I agree with the first part. To soon for the second part imo. Let’s see where the high goes on future runs.

[Anthony Burden]

Charts still all showing the Atlantic milder air pushing in during next week,not really taking over

before continental high pressure resumes at the end of next week.The position of the high 

will give us a couple of options mild with a touch of spring or a return of the cold.

[Don]

Oh dear, a real slap in the face for coldies this morning and the chance of a colder than average February! 

However, given how volatile the models have been recently, I don't think this is a given yet?!

Edited February 11, 2021 by Don

[Don]

1 hour ago, mulzy said:

Fwiw, the extended mean eps continues the rather mild high pressure dominated scene. Early spring rather than late winter!

Haven't these been flipping around a lot recently, though?