Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T120-T168, and there are 5:

None is completely ideal, but:  The first seems still to promote the scandi high, some element of high lat blocking on the second and third but not well aligned.  4 and 5 end with a UK high or close to it.  Some way to go to resolve this, not worth looking at the longer timescales on these if this is so uncertain.

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters T120-T168, and there are 5:

None is completely ideal, but:  The first seems still to promote the scandi high, some element of high lat blocking on the second and third but not well aligned.  4 and 5 end with a UK high or close to it.  Some way to go to resolve this, not worth looking at the longer timescales on these if this is so uncertain.

I think my fatigue got the better of me last night, or perhaps selective memory, how do these compare to 24 hours ago? Ta

[Griff]

Going to indulge myself (sorry mods) with a model related tweet in the model thread.... 

Cue moans that it's not ready for prime time etc

 

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

I think my fatigue got the better of me last night, or perhaps selective memory, how do these compare to 24 hours ago? Ta

No idea, @Griff, don’t think I looked at them yesterday.  (Probably someone will tell me I posted them yesterday now, but I’m on lockdown levels of beer consumption at the moment )

[Andypvfc]

Well my own views on this week. I've just had a taxi customer say how much warmer it feels tonight. The wind has dropped so its actually a nice winters night.

Give me 2010 cold event or a massive Snow event over these easterlies anytime.

[Allseasons-Si]

The EPS and ext EPS...

^ i would take that at day ten with the op and control in cluster 1,the ext a bit muted at that range as you would expect but i would take again cluster 1 but cluster 4 ins't nae bad either

on to the NOAA anomalies 6-10/8-14 day 500mb outlook shows some interest for coldies as the Atlantic trough retracts further away to the west in the ext.

on to the pub crawl

 

[Mike Poole]

The ICON 18z T120 needs to be seen in the context of the 12z T126, and it is a big shift to cold:

[snowice]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The ICON 18z T120 needs to be seen in the context of the 12z T126, and it is a big shift to cold:

995 low south of Ireland going under ??

[Frostbite1980]

4 minutes ago, snowice said:

995 low south of Ireland going under ??

Not with those iberian heights unfortunately

[Captain Shortwave]

Just a couple of notes from the models

1) Surface temperatures actually look like they could dip a little further from where they are now, there is a last ditch swipe of cold from the south east into the weekend that could place many central and eastern areas into the ice day category on Saturday (Tomorrow and Friday look touch and go like the last few days). Add in a fairly brisk south easterly breeze and it is going to feel raw.

2) Sunday isn't guaranteed to turn milder everywhere, the east could hold out for one more cold day depending on how long it takes for the winds to shift west of south (Strangely this is the turning point rather than the front that effectively gives up the ghost across the UK). Monday however does look milder for all.

3) The ridge east of the UK remains stubborn into week 2, and there is quite an envelope of solutions that could occur, some that would hint at cold weather returning potentially.

ECM ens day 6/8/10

            

Certainly enough there to keep a cursory glance for an easterly at some point after mid-month.

 

 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[damianslaw]

Atlantic hitting the buffers? Whilst all models agree on the current high relinquishing its grip through the weekend, the cold continental SE/E airflow exchanged for something milder from the south/south west, the high appears to want to go nowhere in a hurry and having eased itself SE, it pushes back west against a floundering atlantic, end result a resurgent dominant anticyclonic picture. Heights establishing themselves over the UK and every likelihood thereafter advecting or retrogressing NW. This is the pattern suggested by the long range Met Office outlook.

Near-term, remaining cold and frosty next 2 days, atlantic frontal system moving into western parts through Saturday colder uppers become mixed out but still surface cold, so any precipitation likely to be of snow or freezing rain. 

Sunday - Wednesday? - Milder air wins through, a wintry mix on Sunday, cloudier and damp and mild for all by Monday

Longer term - I say Wednesday onwards.. could be a bit later anticyclonic, possibly becoming cold and wintry before not too long again..

[ANYWEATHER]

Just adding the Front that pull the milder weather Saturday or Sunday  may give freezing rain and some snow watch this space.....

[bluearmy]

Better extended eps with no euro high anomoly 

the control goes for a cross polar flow 

I’ll keep banging the reversal downwelling wave drum for the last third of the month ......it should come ...will it deliver ?

[Skullzrulerz]

14 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Not with those iberian heights unfortunately

There's always something that has to prevent something special

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Just adding the Front that pull the milder weather Saturday or Sunday  may give freezing rain and some snow watch this space.....

Not on the EC chart, just normal rain! hopefully GFS got this right

[Mike Poole]

Early doors on the pub run, but even at T90 there’s a big difference, compared to T96 on 12z, see the two lows (circled) the eastern one is much stronger, should aid WWA:

[Griff]

GFS and para at 90... 

Believe nothing! 

 

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Griff said:

GFS and para at 90... 

Believe nothing! 

Para looks better to me at this early stage, much better alignment.  

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Early doors on the pub run, but even at T90 there’s a big difference, compared to T96 on 12z, see the two lows (circled) the eastern one is much stronger, should aid WWA:

Something a bit dodgy about the Atlantic low of doom out west. Just feels so peculiar, gigantic and not really going anywhere... 

[Battleground Snow]

Para v the world at 108, 

Looks isolated, but never know

 

[Griff]

108... 

[Allseasons-Si]

I don't know if this has been lost in all the post's as i haven't looked yet but the 12z gfs//p brought -16 uppers into the SE by 180 with a dam of 510,lets see where the 18z goes.

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Griff said:

Something a bit dodgy about the Atlantic low of doom out west. Just feels so peculiar, gigantic and not really going anywhere... 

I think some of the models are overblowing it, but the main reason is it cannot get any closer because of the block.  And the block may be stronger than some of the models, and some forecasters, think.  

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I think some of the models are overblowing it, but the main reason is it cannot get any closer because of the block.  And the block may be stronger than some of the models, and some forecasters, think.  

It's the overblown I'm struggling with... 

[Griff]

GFS op 156 vs gem