Model output discussion 10/02/21

[DogToffee]

Judging by the fax charts, it could well be battleground snow all Sunday up the spine of Britain. Certainly would be interesting, but this coldy's hoping for the continental air to hold on for a week or three yet.

[Alexis]

39 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

This can't be right? Look at those dewpoints for Saturday on GFS 12z

Hopefully we'll be like Norway. Our rain often instantly turns to snow when it reaches there.

[Griff]

Are we following the ECM or the... 

ECMWF// - CEP//

Beginning of parallel runs for Cycle 47r2. Parallel run will become operationnal in May 2021.

 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Griff

[Battleground Snow]

ECM nearer GFS at 96 than Ukmo

[Tim Bland]

10 minutes ago, Griff said:

Are we following the ECM or the... 

ECMWF// - CEP//

Beginning of parallel runs for Cycle 47r2. Parallel run will become operationnal in May 2021.

 

Oh no it’s going to be a full time job checking all these models soon! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0&para=1

 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Oh no it’s going to be a full time job checking all these models soon! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0&para=1

 

Haha, absolute model overload. Which is better at 96?

 

[sheikhy]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

ECM nearer GFS at 96 than Ukmo

Yup looks good there !!!but we know its gona bulldoze east somehow in the next frame!!lol!!

[Tim Bland]

14 minutes ago, DogToffee said:

Judging by the fax charts, it could well be battleground snow all Sunday up the spine of Britain. Certainly would be interesting, but this coldy's hoping for the continental air to hold on for a week or three yet.

Could well be rain if these uppers are correct. 528 line is well east as well

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM nearer GFS at 96 than Ukmo

 

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Oh no it’s going to be a full time job checking all these models soon! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0&para=1

 

The previously useful compare models at a specific time frame, now resembles a chessboard of possibilities and outcomes... 

ECM a tad more progressive than GFS... 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Griff

[snowice]

120 not great

 

[Drifter]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Could well be rain if these uppers are correct. 528 line is well east as well

You can’t really use ecm uppers to argue against an outcome on a Met Office fax chart. 

[Drifter]

All over, see you next year according to ecm. 
Thankfully I think GFS has this nailed. 

[Mapantz]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Could well be rain if these uppers are correct. 528 line is well east as well

There would still be a lot of snow across the high ground of Northern England and Scotland, despite 850 temps being not looking rosy. The 850 - 1000hPa thicknesses are low enough for snow above 200m.

[Tim Bland]

4 minutes ago, Drifter said:

You can’t really use ecm uppers to argue against an outcome on a Met Office fax chart. 

Not arguing against it, it’s just we can’t see the uppers or the precip type on the fax so just filling in the blanks..They will usually  use a blend of UKMO & ECM and both models show positive uppers. Just looking at this fax  - As the 528 dam line is east and it’s a warm front with air from the south is it not fair to assume this chart is showing us rain or freezing rain? 

[ICE COLD]

ECM // is better at day 7 than the op . Still obviously not great 

Edited February 10, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Polar Maritime]

NetWx shows the cold winning out, The fronts never really cross the UK. Here's next Wednesdays midday charts.

 

[sheikhy]

This still aint done in my opinion!!!ecm looks interesting at 168 hours!!!very gfs like

[sheikhy]

Ecm has current cold spell ending sunday!!gfs tuesday!!!!

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

NetWx shows the cold winning out, The fronts never really cross the UK. Here's next Wednesdays midday charts.

 

Would say that’s fairly average? What are the 2m air temps as those are wind chill? Average Uppers this time are year in London are around -2c and that’s shows 0c or -1c ? 

[sheikhy]

But ecm no snow breakdown!!!!a lot of other models do!!!

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

This still aint done in my opinion!!!ecm looks interesting at 168 hours!!!very gfs like

 

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm has current cold spell ending sunday!!gfs tuesday!!!!

So we're basically all agreed the GFSP has got this sorted?  

In all seriousness GEM has shifted a little, so maybe tomorrow.... 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Griff

[ICE COLD]

Take your pick at T192 no 1 or no 2 

[chris55]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM // is better at day 7 than the op . Still obviously not great 

The Euros are sniffing out a cold/continental/easterly type scenario IMO. Both UKMO and ECM at 144 looking interesting.

[Man With Beard]

Well we haven't seen much of this during the winter!

Temps well into double figures I'd expect.

GFS P needs to have a good chat with ECM as they're clearly not on speaking terms!

[Tim Bland]

ECM has some snow in the far west Sat then it’s plain rain for all on Sunday although some of the east may stay dry