South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

[matt111]

Wet until mid afternoon then a dry and cloudy end to the day. Reached 9.3°C, currently 8.5°C

[CheesepuffScott]

Rain cleared around 4:30. Dry and overcast thereafter. Reached 10.1°C, currently 7.8°C

[That ECM]

Raining again see you in November fellow southerners.

[Dorsetbred]

Feels a lot like a  day today, raining, moderate breeze in from the SW, current temperature as the overnight minimum of 8.4°C at: 08:27...I'll stop there

Edited February 18, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[Dorsetbred]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Raining again see you in November fellow southerners.

Really... and miss the best part of the years weather, really?

Edited February 18, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:

Really... and miss the best part of the years weather, really?

Yep, warm is nice but I find little excitement in weather in the other 3 seasons. not overly bothered about thunderstorms, heat etc

[Andy Bown]

This week rain has cleared at, give or take 5/10 minutes, 

Monday 07.00

Tuesday 09.00

Wednesday 08.00

Today likely to be 09.00

[Dorsetbred]

15 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

This week rain has cleared at, give or take 5/10 minutes, 

Monday 07.00

Tuesday 09.00

Wednesday 08.00

Today likely to be 09.00

Yup, lighter skies have arrived just in time @08:59..

[AWD]

Remember a few days ago, we held hope for a forthcoming weekend of very mild or even warm temperatures and predominantly dry conditions.  Well, how things change, again demonstrating the complexities of forecasting the weather for our tiny land more than a few days in advance at most.

Saturday and Sunday are now looking very similiar to each other.  Both suggest some morning rain clearing to leave a legacy of cloud, with temperatures now limited to a rather "meh" low double figures value, perhaps not even making double figures for some of us on Sunday;

Some heavy rain around too, Sunday morning especially;

The "uptick" in PPN for the foreseeable quite clear to see on the latest ens, these for Bristol below;

Possibly drier on Monday, but otherwise there looks to be further spells of rain and showers for the foreseeable.

Perhaps the hint of something drier and less unsettled towards the back end of next week.  PPN spikes decreasing and a typical temperature zig zag setup of mild days and cool nights, indictive of a high pressure cell nearby.  A long way off though, and as we have seen time and time again, things can and will change.

[Dorsetbred]

As forecasted earlier in the week the wind has turned in to the NW and the temperature has dropped to 7.4°C...

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, AWD said:

Remember a few days ago, we held hope for a forthcoming weekend of very mild or even warm temperatures and predominantly dry conditions.  Well, how things change, again demonstrating the complexities of forecasting the weather for our tiny land more than a few days in advance at most.

Saturday and Sunday are now looking very similiar to each other.  Both suggest some morning rain clearing to leave a legacy of cloud, with temperatures now limited to a rather "meh" low double figures value, perhaps not even making double figures for some of us on Sunday;

Some heavy rain around too, Sunday morning especially;

The "uptick" in PPN for the foreseeable quite clear to see on the latest ens, these for Bristol below;

Possibly drier on Monday, but otherwise there looks to be further spells of rain and showers for the foreseeable.

Perhaps the hint of something drier and less unsettled towards the back end of next week.  PPN spikes decreasing and a typical temperature zig zag setup of mild days and cool nights, indictive of a high pressure cell nearby.  A long way off though, and as we have seen time and time again, things can and will change.

So we have given up with GROUNDHOG Day and moved now into a  weekend?

Edited February 18, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[ARTDEMOLE]

Bright at the moment. 6.7c. Humidity 91% Rh.

[MP-R]

A sunny day! Seems so difficult to achieve in this unseasonal setup we find ourselves in.

[mike5900]

Heavy hail shower here. 

[AWD]

Short but sharp hail shower currently passing through Westbury.

[mike5900]

Second hail rain shower. 

[Andy Bown]

Decent hail core over Warminster too, showing as sleet on the precip type radar.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Sunny spells around PEASEDOWN ST JOHN. 7.8c Humidity 71% Rh.

[Dorsetbred]

Peaked at 11.0°C at: 14:27 earlier as the warm sun did its best to improve the day, was pleasant standing out and taking in the rays...

[Lyn-M]

5 hours ago, mike5900 said:

Heavy hail shower here. 

I got caught in that one coming out of Waitrose!  Thought I was being clever going this afternoon instead of tomorrow morning....wrong!

[matt111]

Dry all day once the rain cleared this morning apart from a brief shower later in the afternoon, typically while I was outside. Reached 10.0°C, currently 7.1°C

[MP-R]

Very decent day here today, to make for yesterday's dross. Largely sunny all day after the early frontal cloud moved east. Saw some nice cbs to the south this afternoon too.

Chilly out there now.

[CheesepuffScott]

Was going up the A338 around 2:15pm this afternoon and had a heavy shower with pelting hail.

Decent sunny spells after the muck cleared this morning. Felt nice in the sunshine. Reached 10.7°C, cooler than previous nights down to 4.2°C

Edited February 18, 2021 by CheesepuffScott

[Dorsetbred]

Morning All, a key fact check this morning..

Does it take three days for a page in this thread to turn over --- Yup

Is there a moderate breeze -- Yup

Is the wind in from the South West -- Yup

Is the temperature between 5°C & 10°C -- Yup

Is the RH between 85 and 95% -- Yup

Is it overcast -- Yup

Is it raining -- Yup

In that case it's a FEBRUARY  Day....

[AWD]

The extended 03z UKV run gives a drier and sunnier interlude of weather on Monday & Tuesday next week.

The weekend looks rather wet for many of us, especially those in western and south western districts.  The Moors of Devon for example, could see some copious amounts of rain over the next 48 hours or so.

There is some early morning rain to dispose of on Monday, but once that's cleared the region (say mid morning onwards), skies should turn much sunnier with temperatures getting into double figures;

Setting us up for a pleasant Monday on the whole and this theme continuing into Tuesday too;

Only clouding over later in the day ahead of an approaching frontal system.  

A cloudy, wet at times weekend then, especially Devon/Somerset/Cornwall etc.  Turning drier and brighter for a day or two at the start of next week at least.

Onto the medium range prospects, using the 0z Ens for Bristol, suggests at least something a bit drier next week;

RED CIRCLE - Notice here a thinning out of PPN options.  Whilst rain is still possible, far less members bring anything substantial to our region from the second half of next week.  Many more members instead go for a drier forecast.

BLUE LINE - Temperatures possibly on their way down come the end of next week?

GREEN CIRCLE - Clear signal for a very cloudy weekend coming up.

YELLOW CIRCLE - Notice as we progress through next week, many more members show hope of far less cloudy skies and much more in the way of potential sunnier skies.

Edited February 19, 2021 by AWD