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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward


Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    37 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Here come the much milder temperatures.  👍🏼

    Is this not the same forecaster who last week didn't agree to the fact that the westerlies would win out?

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    The local rag has rescinded its suggestion of snow in the early hours, I wonder wonder why, maybe a clue is in the fact the wind in now southerly and temperatures are rising , currently the warmest its been all day with 2.3°C at: 19:09

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    11 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

    Is this not the same forecaster who last week didn't agree to the fact that the westerlies would win out?

    I don't think he 100% dismissed the idea, I think he was just a lot more cautious with regards to the return of the Westerlies, and through his meteorological experience, thought the colder conditions would put up a far greater "fight".

    Like I've always maintained, and learnt myself, forecasting the Great British weather more than a few days in advance is a difficult skill to acquire, the weather makes fools of even the most skilled meteorologists.

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    7 minutes ago, AWD said:

    I don't think he 100% dismissed the idea, I think he was just a lot more cautious with regards to the return of the Westerlies, and through his meteorological experience, thought the colder conditions would put up a far greater "fight".

    Like I've always maintained, and learnt myself, forecasting the Great British weather more than a few days in advance is a difficult skill to acquire, the weather makes fools of even the most skilled meteorologists.

    Yup most certainly agree and I'm way down the tree in the art of forecasting, does go to show how strong the westerlies are though, once they set their mind to it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath

    That's the end of the cold spell then! Happy for everybody who got any snow, unfortunately it was quite disappointing here. We still have time for another cold event before winters out and I would like that to happen but if not then I would love an early spring to bring the garden back to life. 🙂🌳

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    A quick look on how tonight's 12z data suggests what the weather will be like for our region for the next week or so.

    As has been much documented, the cold is on its way out now and from tomorrow, temperatures will recover to much nearer normal values.  However, to compensate for that, we do have a band of rain working in from the west tomorrow afternoon;

    viewimage.thumb.png.4f839086642bd26487b89be30372b2dc.png

    So a dry start, but becoming wet from the west as the day progresses, much milder though.

    Monday should see temperatures widely into double figures, perhaps low teens around the Bristol channel;

    520221634_viewimage(1).thumb.png.267c4f2d9b0ce95d84d21d496708cd2b.png

    Dry for much of the day light hours, with some more rain approach from the SSW later in the day, could be quite heavy around Torbay and the Jurassic coast;

    448314020_viewimage(2).thumb.png.f37ff1724a680a36950da7c29d516adc.png

    Tuesday is a day of sunshine and showers;

    1631380199_viewimage(3).thumb.png.ffbe161c4552eb4e94beb8cad6a3e3a2.png

    with temperatures again nudging towards double figure values.

    Beyond that, for the rest of the week, and more especially into the weekend, we shall turn to the 12z ens, these are for Bristol but the story is essentially the same for all of the region;

    IMG_20210213_193700.thumb.jpg.8efd4e62959077059444e9b9814f2298.jpg

    I've circled a couple of observations here.  First circle, second block down is in the precipitation block.  Very little in the way of pillars here, suggestive of a much drier second half/third of the week.  Coupled with the other circle in the last block, suggests our region will be under the influence of an high pressure setup.  Note the temperatures possibly getting into the mid teens during the day and dropping back into lower single figures at night.

    So, to sum up.  As things stand, we are looking at an unsettled start to the week, continuing through much of the working week, followed by a much more settled finish to the week.  Mild throughout, possibly warm and increasingly sunny into the end of the week.  

    Edited by AWD
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    3°C and windy here.

    I was looking forward to some heavy rain. The UKV keeps the 3rd front West for quite some time, with hardly any rainfall here. Hopefully, that changes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms /Snow
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.

    An overnight low of -2.2°C and steadily risen to 2.4°C and slowly rising......dewpoint currently -4.8°C and 60%RH.......No snow even though radar said different.....super dry air evaporated it.

    Oh well peeps onwards to spring eh......unless we can get one last gasp wintry hurrah......nah....Time to get bbq  and firepit ready 😉.

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    2 hours ago, Glenosnow said:

    An overnight low of -2.2°C and steadily risen to 2.4°C and slowly rising......dewpoint currently -4.8°C and 60%RH.......No snow even though radar said different.....super dry air evaporated it.

    Oh well peeps onwards to spring eh......unless we can get one last gasp wintry hurrah......nah....Time to get bbq  and firepit ready 😉.

    Amazed seeing these low minus dew points with over zero degrees air temps. And they're rapidly dropping!  Looks like Scotland is taking all the snow. Good luck to them.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset

    Like many we had light snow on and off for a large part of the day, fine flakes for the most part, A local weather station is reporting 3c and a dewpoint of 0 ( was -1 earlier).

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Had a few flakes of snow earlier and then a bit of freezing rain but dry now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    for Sat 20th, possibly quite a lot of sunshine, and 14c, bit of a contrast to what we've had lately. Should be feeling spring-like

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    Morning All, a mild start to the day after an overnight low of 3.1°C at: 01:41, currently 4.6°C, with the wind onshore keeping things warm overnight..

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl

    Normal service has resumed, mild and drizzling.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos

    It was still bloody cold here in the wind at 5am this morning. Temperatures now on the up and staying up for the foreseeable. I have a feeling though that winter is not quite done with us. I'm going for a very cold and snowy spell at the very end of Feb start of March. 

    I'm certainly no expert, just an optimist with a hunch. In what has been a relatively cold but relatively snowless winter, one last cold blast and I'll be happy to see spring.

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
    10 minutes ago, John88B said:

    It was still bloody cold here in the wind at 5am this morning. Temperatures now on the up and staying up for the foreseeable. I have a feeling though that winter is not quite done with us. I'm going for a very cold and snowy spell at the very end of Feb start of March. 

    I'm certainly no expert, just an optimist with a hunch. In what has been a relatively cold but relatively snowless winter, one last cold blast and I'll be happy to see spring.

    I fear you may be right. For me though it's not based on a feeling or a hunch, it's based on sods law and an element of trepidation. 

    I moved into this house nearly 21 years ago, April 4th 2000 - there was a foot of snow that had fallen overnight, getting removal lorries around the lanes in the Mendips was a bleeding nightmare. I'm set to move again, sometime in early March, this time heading even higher up to the Mendip plateau 260m asl. Sods law dictates there's a high chance we'll face the same nightmare. I'll be praying for warm, dry weather.

    Once I've moved, happy to be snowed in.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    An interesting Sunday morning read:

    global-ocean-anomaly-gulf-stream-amoc-co
    WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

    United States and Europe are strongly influenced by Gulf Stream, where an unusually strong anomaly is being detected in the Ocean

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Shaftesbury, Dorset, 217m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,cold, & sunny & warm
  • Location: Shaftesbury, Dorset, 217m asl

    Totally different walk this morning, still chilly at 1.6c with a cold wind, ground still frozen but the driving horizontal drizzle was most unwelcome.

    I fear it will be the norm for sometime to come.

    Happier with a dry, mild period but not relentless rain please!

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    Posted
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & cold (love it) any extremes.
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
    36 minutes ago, John88B said:

    It was still bloody cold here in the wind at 5am this morning. Temperatures now on the up and staying up for the foreseeable. I have a feeling though that winter is not quite done with us. I'm going for a very cold and snowy spell at the very end of Feb start of March. 

    I'm certainly no expert, just an optimist with a hunch. In what has been a relatively cold but relatively snowless winter, one last cold blast and I'll be happy to see spring.

    I can confirm that John, let the puppy out at 4am and was surprised by just how cold it was in the wind. Luckily the pup did his business very swiftly and I was able to return to my warm bed. 
    I just noticed there is still green echoes on the radar up the road from us on the Cotswolds right now 🤔 

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    Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
    30 minutes ago, jethro said:

    I fear you may be right. For me though it's not based on a feeling or a hunch, it's based on sods law and an element of trepidation. 

    I moved into this house nearly 21 years ago, April 4th 2000 - there was a foot of snow that had fallen overnight, getting removal lorries around the lanes in the Mendips was a bleeding nightmare. I'm set to move again, sometime in early March, this time heading even higher up to the Mendip plateau 260m asl. Sods law dictates there's a high chance we'll face the same nightmare. I'll be praying for warm, dry weather.

    Once I've moved, happy to be snowed in.

    Funnily enough I am also moving, probably sometime in March, awaiting completion now and I'm also moving somewhere a bit higher just north of Wotton Under Edge. Good luck with the move.

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    That's more like it, pouring rain! Something more measurable now, as Feb was beginning to look at tad dry down here, certainly compared to last year! currently 1.4mm today..beachcam shows choppy seas this morning with the strong onshore breeze.. 

    image.thumb.png.f978cc92f197a34b1edb4ffa683f1b61.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    The cold spell was a complete waste of time for my location. 

    Part from some snow flurries,  the only thing that the cold spell managed to do was increase my gas and electric bill.

    Roll on the warmer weather, looking forward to longer days now.

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