South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

[*Stormforce~beka*]

6 hours ago, Nights King said:

I am tempted to throw in the towel and call winter over.

Running out of time and future cold spell has melted away, snow in march is rarer than hens teeth away from hills.

Feel very down on this winter to be fair. 

It's over!! I'm polishing my BBQ. All round mine in 10 days time ...

[khodds]

I want to know about UFO’s too!!

[stevofunnelcl]

the cold spell is ending... maybe with something happening. I'm showing snow or rain symbols later this morning with the temp at 0c

it could be snow, it could be freezing rain !! - this is going to be an interesting weekend, with the weather across the Uk

[Plytru1]

Snow in Plymouth at the moment 

[offerman]

6 hours ago, khodds said:

I want to know about UFO’s too!!

That’s interesting to know both you and Kumquat are also interested . 
 

Im looking forward to end of lockdown as I had a ufo presentation planned In March 2020 and then it all got shelved along with the world . 
 

I have some incredible footage to show from last 15 years or so . 

[stevofunnelcl]

finally it's started snowing here... at last !!

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

Last minute upgrade!
Met have expanded the yellow warning that just covered Wales down into parts of the South West so some of our region may see something more than a few flakes falling from the sky:

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

Let us know what you get, then send it to over to the rest of the region.

[gman88667733]

MO app shows a yellow warning for me. Went to bed with no precipitation forecast, it now shows very heavy snow from 8am for 5 hours and then light snow for 3 hours. Crazy!

I'm not convinced though...

Edited February 13, 2021 by gman88667733

[wiltshire weather]

I hope everyone gets to see some snow falling today so good luck all.

The front already seems to have made it further east than predicted at this time so maybe that's a sign it's going to make it over to us in the east.

Keeping fingers crossed 

[festivalking]

Raining on this part of dartmoor!

[AWD]

Just to update on today's "snow" potential, or lack off.

Met Office have recently updated their yellow warning, to include parts of Devon now;

Met Office text gives the following forecast;

So the "potential" for a dusting on parts of Devon, perhaps a covering over the Moors if lucky.

03z UKV shows the PPN a little more noticeable over Devon now;

Modelling the suggestive dusting accumulations;

FWIW, some other high Res models do keep the front going a tad longer, scraping into Somerset and the Bristol area, although all have it fragmenting through the afternoon.  The overnight Arome model;

the most bullish about this, also highlighting the risk of freezing rain in parts.

0z Harmonie model also on a similiar page;

So definitely worth keeping an eye on the radar throughout the day, especially if you like snowflake chasing.  Anywhere south and west of Bristol/Bath is in with a shout of seeing falling snow throughout the day, although as expected, accumulations very patchy and small, if any.

Latest radar of the front over the South West peninsula now;

Running the radar loop, you can see the initial PPN quickly fizzles away once it gets past Plymouth.  The PPN edging into Cornwall now (falling more as rain here) is a little more intact, so should make it a little more further NE, possibly into Somerset, hence the above Meto Office forecast.

Will be interesting to see if all goes to plan on the final day of this cold spell.

[Jayfromcardiff]

4 minutes ago, AWD said:

Just to update on today's "snow" potential, or lack off.

Met Office have recently updated their yellow warning, to include parts of Devon now;

Met Office text gives the following forecast;

So the "potential" for a dusting on parts of Devon, perhaps a covering over the Moors if lucky.

03z UKV shows the PPN a little more noticeable over Devon now;

Modelling the suggestive dusting accumulations;

FWIW, some other high Res models do keep the front going a tad longer, scraping into Somerset and the Bristol area, although all have it fragmenting through the afternoon.  The overnight Arome model;

the most bullish about this, also highlighting the risk of freezing rain in parts.

0z Harmonie model also on a similiar page;

So definitely worth keeping an eye on the radar throughout the day, especially if you like snowflake chasing.  Anywhere south and west of Bristol/Bath is in with a shout of seeing falling snow throughout the day, although as expected, accumulations very patchy and small, if any.

Latest radar of the front over the South West peninsula now;

Running the radar loop, you can see the initial PPN quickly fizzles away once it gets past Plymouth.  The PPN edging into Cornwall now (falling more as rain here) is a little more intact, so should make it a little more further NE, possibly into Somerset, hence the above Meto Office forecast.

Will be interesting to see if all goes to plan on the final day of this cold spell.

For once it's upgraded rather than downgraded.

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

Great update, thx @AWD

You could sure as bet that lot sitting to the west of us had it been rain forecast would have had nooooo problems crossing our entire region before fizzling out like what it will do tomorrow.

Enjoy the last day of dry and cold or snow and cold folks.

[Duane S.]

So far for the SW, the ppn intensity has held up much more (and fizzled out less) than was forecast.  The radar has it currently heading over me, I await to see what, if anything, falls from the sky. Often the longer the gap between the radar showing and the ppn hitting, the more chance of snow. Especially with the current conditions, not only does snow to the ground fall more slowly than rain but we have an undercutting strong south easterly wind against a front swinging up from the south west

[Super_Uwe]

V light snow in Kingsbridge.

[Andy Bown]

8 hours ago, kumquat said:

I'm intrigued by this comment also, WarminTim! I know Warminster was a 50's UFO hotspot. The Warminster Flap, as they call it

 

1 hour ago, offerman said:

That’s interesting to know both you and Kumquat are also interested . 
 

Im looking forward to end of lockdown as I had a ufo presentation planned In March 2020 and then it all got shelved along with the world . 
 

I have some incredible footage to show from last 15 years or so . 

I have heard of the Warminster Thing, not Flap.

Offerman, do hope your footage doesn’t include the father and son pilots who fly stunt planes from the Deverills airfield late evening in the summer!

[warmintim]

10 hours ago, offerman said:

Didnt know you’d seen ufos  as well ?

What have you seen ? 

 

 

Sorry I think you’ve been led astray. I’m fascinated with all things Fortean, but have never seen anything remotely weird, to my lasting regret. My aunt claimed to have seen a ghostly woman crossing the road at dead maids (A36) but we only saw a barn owl. My wife and I became convinced we were watching an ABC in the field next to our house. Closer inspection  revealed a domestic moggy that foreshortening had made look bigger. Living in Warminster I of course find the whole ufo thing iNteresting, but I’ve never seen anything. Tbh I think no one else did either, just an endless stream of mis identified flares, distant car headlights, satellites and so on. Cradle hill Would certainly be an eerie place at night, and if you were hyped up and expecting to see something then I am sure it was easy to believe that you had. Growin* up here I’ve seen military flares all my life, but to an outsider? At least one of the accounts in the literature sounds exactly like a string of flares, with more being shot up as they fade giving an illusion of movement. I even have a picture somewhere of flares that could pass for ufos.

Apologies if you were expecting better, and please don’t be offended if you hold a different view.

[gman88667733]

Snow just started here. Slowly getting heavier, it is very dark outside.

[Ydoj]

Raining in North Devon on the west facing beaches.

Edited February 13, 2021 by Ydoj

[moled]

Not for the first time this week radar showing snow  for this location...quite heavy for some of the time,   but nothing reaches the ground.

As others have said rain on the moor has no problem reaching the ground!

[<torbay>]

Just started raining lightly here too. Been watching radar for a while and it says that it should be snow from much earlier but has been dry. 

Edited February 13, 2021 by <torbay>

[lettice]

After the 3.2c high yesterday afternoon and the low yesterday evening at 8:30pm of -1.4c, the temp has slowly been rising since.
Now, 0.8c, 1030.4 hPa
Wind still Easterly, more ESE this morning 12mph, with plenty of 20-22mph gusts.
A grey cloudy start.

Looking forward to the warmer temps from tomorrow and for next week, to get some sowing and planting started in the veg garden and greenhouse.

[Snowboy111]

Beautiful rain in Guernsey. What a bust this week has been

[SteveB]

Radar shows precip over me, but as others have said,  nothing reaching the ground. 

[Shaftesburydelightski]

Took our dog Ice, for his usual walk, -1.9c with a high wind chill.

Ground frozen rock hard with patches of snow still laying. Saw a deer and heard a woodpecker as well.

If the precipitation makes it this far it will be snow!

The last of the winter?