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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    51 minutes ago, khodds said:

    How long is the warm up meant to last? I haven’t looked at the charts. What’s the latest icon saying for tomorrow too?

    Latest 12z ICON gives nothing more than a bit of patchy, light snow tomorrow afternoon for a lucky few;

    iconeu_uk1-42-26-0.thumb.png.7471871ca5cfaae3fc203c68271fddaa.png

    12z Arome similiar, although perhaps something a tad heavier over Devon briefly;

    aromehd-42-25-0.thumb.png.b7d4652a04791dbc8f2b55c2b89ff298.pngaromehd-42-27-0.thumb.png.5d7e3a0c941767f69f2cad5049f1e27c.png

    Essentially, expect a dry and very cold feeling day tomorrow, with just the possibility of some patchy on/off light snow in the afternoon.

    Longer term outlook I don't really go into due to the ever decreasing reliability of trying to predict the Great British weather more than a few days in advance.

    As broad brush as one can be, much milder from Sunday onwards, lasting much (if not all) of next week as things stand.  Temps likely to get into double figures for many of us at the start of next week.  Possibility of something colder returning at months end, but I'm basing this purely on the Meto extended forecast along with snippets in twitter from Ian F and a couple of other respected meteorologists.  They seem quite keen on the idea.

    Who knows though?  We will see.

    Edited by AWD
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    It wasn't a lot but it was enough for a dwarf snowman

    A bit late in posting 😂 but we done very well (relatively) down here in the far west of Cornwall today. Proper snow for a solid 6 hours and unlike elsewhere in the country, no issue with settling. Set

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    Posted
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are

    Looks like our last chance for some white stuff is slowly disappearing from what I can gather,not that many of us have had anything meaningful. I have seen snow but I don't think i had enough to make even one snowball. Although it's been cold even silly uppers it still doesn't fall right for most of us. My towel has been thrown in even though it's still frozen for this chase anyway. Will we get another chance at the end of the month or March,who knows. 

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    Posted
  • Location: West Fareham
  • Location: West Fareham

    Well it's the start of my final overnight frost of the cold spell, with a 1pm max of +2.9 and already back down to -0.5°C with the grass at -2.6.

    I am not expecting any snow whatsoever tomorrow, oh well there's always next year. My main remaining interest is how long that bucket full of solid ice in the back garden will take to melt!

     

    Edited by DaveL
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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    13 minutes ago, DaveL said:

    Well it's the start of my final overnight frost of the cold spell, with a 1pm max of +2.9 and already back down to -0.5°C with the grass at -2.6.

    I am not expecting any snow whatsoever tomorrow, oh well there's always next year. My main remaining interest is how long that bucket full of solid ice in the back garden will take to melt!

     

    HaHa, yup I've got a few of those too, and if anything like previous years when it thaws out you find pots shattered and holes where holes shouldn't be.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    An earlier hi of 3.7°C at: 12:08, in the sunshine has now been negated as the wind has veered in to the WNW rather than the SE of this morning so now we are at 0.7°C, under clear skies, a CHANCE and only a CHANCE of the sub zero returning tonight in readiness for anything that comes our way tomorrow, failing that the ice buckets will defrost on Sunday I'm sure..AND I might be able to get a spade back in the garden as I've been using a hammer and chisel this week... 

    Edited by Dorsetbred
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:

    And earlier hi 3.7°C at: 12:08, in the sunshine has now been negated as the wind has veered in to the WNW rather than the SE of this morning so now we are at 0.7°C, under clear skies, a CHANCE and only a CHANCE of the sub zero returning toning in readiness for anything that comes our way tomorrow, failing that the ice buckets will defrost on Sunday I'm sure..AND I might be able to get a spade back in the garden as I've been using a hammer and chisel this week... 

    Pretty much dead on easterly here, Db.

    A possible -4°C tonight, before temps creep above zero during the early hours of tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, warmintim said:

    I often park by the Golf Course road and walk up to Cradle Hill. Nice loop with epic views (and sometimes UFO's).

    Often trodden by myself since the first lockdown started. On one of those tinder dry May days I walked from home to Upton Scudamore, up onto the Plain and along to the golf course then home. It was nearly 13,000 steps.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shaftesbury, Dorset, 217m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,cold, & sunny & warm
  • Location: Shaftesbury, Dorset, 217m asl

    Cold but beautiful sunny day, temperature now down to -0.5c.

    Can't see much in the way of snow tomorrow and looking ahead, as Mr Betts would say - at least it will be mild!

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    Posted
  • Location: Shaftesbury, Dorset, 217m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,cold, & sunny & warm
  • Location: Shaftesbury, Dorset, 217m asl

    Sorry didn't have my glasses on temperature actually -1.7c!

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    37 minutes ago, Shaftesburydelightski said:

    Cold but beautiful sunny day, temperature now down to -0.5c.

    Can't see much in the way of snow tomorrow and looking ahead, as Mr Betts would say - at least it will be mild!

    The term b*gger all comes to mind, as with the rest of the winter, wrong place wrong time, wrong wind direction, wrong everything.

    Still it is looking cold again tonight even with the wind still around, currently -1.1°C , and falling, not bad as we can't quote "And in the snowfields it will drop to..."...maybe "In the green fields of the South West..it'll drop".. What happened to IF's suggestion of the cold winning out, few are suggesting that now?

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
    21 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

    The term b*gger all comes to mind, as with the rest of the winter, wrong place wrong time, wrong wind direction, wrong everything.

    Still it is looking cold again tonight even with the wind still around, currently -1.1°C , and falling, not bad as we can't quote "And in the snowfields it will drop to..."...maybe "In the green fields of the South West..it'll drop".. What happened to IF's suggestion of the cold winning out, few are suggesting that now?

    I am tempted to throw in the towel and call winter over.

    Running out of time and future cold spell has melted away, snow in march is rarer than hens teeth away from hills.

    Feel very down on this winter to be fair. 😪

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Good riddance to this March'13 Imposter cold spell.

    I, genuinely, would love an early warm Spring via a very mild southerly wind.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    Good riddance to this March'13 Imposter cold spell.

    I, genuinely, would love an early warm Spring via a very mild southerly wind.

    I agree, this has to be one of the worst cold spells going for us in the west.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
    4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    I agree, this has to be one of the worst cold spells going for us in the west.

    Must admit it will be a bit gutting to have been enduring bitterly cold days, especially due to that windchill to see this cold spell go out on a whimper with maybe a bit of snow blowing around in the wind tomorrow. 

    I've noticed the sun hitting more & more of my garden everyday now & that's got me in the mood for spring to arrive & hopefully it does asap. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms /Snow
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.

    Evening all currently -1.6°C dewpoint -8.5°C with a whiff of a  ESE breeze.

    Oh well what a rubbish cold spell and going out on a whimper....all in all this winter, 2 pathetic dustings and a couple of falls of sleet and wet snow.....very disappointing.....it was nice to have the chase but to end up with what we had might as well had wet n windy swesterlies.......so s*d this winter,on to a nice warm spring. 🌞👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    49 minutes ago, Nights King said:

    I am tempted to throw in the towel and call winter over.

    Running out of time and future cold spell has melted away, snow in march is rarer than hens teeth away from hills.

    Feel very down on this winter to be fair. 😪

    I'm waiting for the avatar change. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    It's been nice seeing the cold, sunny, fresh air days and ponds frozen over etc. but without any decent snowfall - happy for it to end now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset

    Looking at the latest forecast model runs it’s hard to see where the next cold snap is coming from, quite the opposite in fact.

    However, we know that could change a few model runs later, just hard to see that happening.

    I agree, it would nice to have it warm up, so long as it stays dry!

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    For those looking forward to early signs of Spring, Monday and Tuesday next week look very pleasant on the 15z UKV.  

    Monday sees temps widely into double figures, with hints that some areas around the Bristol channel could get into the low teens;

    2039653427_viewimage(1).thumb.png.a173cef1e106c1320dc4d51b24db1f46.png

    Quite cloudy though, but hints of breaks in the cloud around the same areas;

    227809840_viewimage(2).thumb.png.4d7038f07942c7db72d5e3fd3ed227d4.png

    Much sunnier conditions shown for Tuesday, with cloud cover much more broken up;

    1417776064_viewimage(3).thumb.png.e38930ce5d9adbeca4ba9d7a44b2e338.png

    with temperatures again responding, into double figures widely again;

    541320422_viewimage(4).thumb.png.855789c0b3df6a100a8bbd0cf742b7df.png

    Should feel very pleasant, possibly even warm in an increasingly strengthening sun.  Worth noting, this does allow CAPE values to increase (albeit small levels), which allows some shower activity to develop on Tuesday;

    1345301313_viewimage(6).thumb.png.3397519b46ed89c5ef6dd2d6d8d8eb64.png

    624298680_viewimage(5).thumb.png.cb0c2ddbb1b3dde4d0ce383e2034d36a.png

    Reminds me of the snizzle streamers we were chasing this week, except we are now looking at heavier showers streaming from the west.  As with the nature of convective activity though, it's all hit and miss.  So areas that avoid the showers could have a sunny and pleasently warm day.

    A world away from the conditions we have endured this week.

    Finally, a quick look at the medium range output from, IMO, the best ens guidance we have available to us.  A look at the 12z EC ens meteogram for Bristol;

    IMG_20210212_194511.thumb.jpg.a6df0ac2ac6792df7fd2ade452742d56.jpg

    A couple of observations for next week as a whole here. 

    Green Circle - lack of anything remotely cold showing.  Very suggestive of a mild week to come next week.  Pretty much no support for cold temperatures, both by day nor by night, so expect frosts to be non existent.  This is valid for essentially the whole week.

    Red Circle - Hints of some modestly warm temperatures showing here, for the time of year.  Just hints for now, but going by these, we could be seeing temperatures getting into the mid teens by the end of the working week in some areas.  Along with a lot less cloud cover and a significantly reduced signal for PPN, suggests the realistic potential of some warm & sunny days towards the back end of next week.

    The potential for very spring like weather to come next week, in my opinion.

    Edited by AWD
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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
    6 hours ago, warmintim said:

    I often park by the Golf Course road and walk up to Cradle Hill. Nice loop with epic views (and sometimes UFO's).

    Didnt know you’d seen ufos  as well ?

    What have you seen ? 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

    To really rub it in earlier today I saw that there were some snow showers moving from a south-easterly direction on the radar, but even these were only affecting the north and east of the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    1 hour ago, The Enforcer said:

    To really rub it in earlier today I saw that there were some snow showers moving from a south-easterly direction on the radar, but even these were only affecting the north and east of the UK.

    Yep, works both ways. We've been put into a right squeeze (literally, with airmasses) in the UK last couple of days. Shame we couldn't capitalize on it with a battleground scenario. (still holding on to a last gasp dusting for tomorrow),

    Also, I'd thought that when the easterly set in, we'd be seeing troughs and disturbances flowing across country, but they stayed very minimal (edit: for us). Streamers were decent for some but their westward extension was poor. A lot of sublimation and even places looking good on the radar reported fluff, graupel and pellets blowing in the wind. I wouldn't feed that schnizzel to the birds. The breakdown (touted as good for the West?!) - who knows? Not looking favourable.

    Thanks to everybody here, including our moderator Mapantz. Thanks big time to AWD for providing really decent followable commentary on the model output. And all the pics. Seen some brilliant sunrises recently and so have a lot of you, by the looks of things.

     

    Edited by kumquat
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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    1 hour ago, offerman said:

    Didnt know you’d seen ufos  as well ?

    What have you seen ? 

     

     

    I'm intrigued by this comment also, WarminTim! I know Warminster was a 50's UFO hotspot. The Warminster Flap, as they call it

    Edited by kumquat
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