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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward


Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & cold (love it) any extremes.
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
    2 hours ago, Calneee said:

    Been a beautiful day to be driving around north wilts today (for my job) & was able to make a quick stop off at Bowden Hill, Lacock for lunch. You must be able to see 50+ miles W/SW from up there. I did wonder if any of you were getting any little flurries from these lovelies

    D54F38CA-EDBD-47C7-841B-1B0E352C01EE.jpeg

    Had our heaviest snow flurry of the week today calneee 🙏❄️ Still technically a ‘Flurry’ though but lots of flakes. Baby steps and all that 🥺

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    Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

    Latest thoughts from Met Office with a real threat of freezing rain at the weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    12z EC Ens for Bristol below (essentially same pattern for whole region but with slight timing differences);

    IMG_20210210_193144.thumb.jpg.6fd511706b48dcae155ec131ebf1ed9c.jpg

    Red Circles - Saturday essentially.  Risk of transient snowfall still there.  Temps circa 3c with various options for PPN.  Nothing majorly heavy really shown but some modest options remain.

    Black Circles - Sunday to Tuesday.  Big switch out of winter to much milder temps, getting up towards double figures at times.  Quite a bit of rain likely to be around.

    Green Circles - Tuesday to end of week.  A much drier picture emerging, outside chance of a little rain but mostly leaning towards dry.  Cloud cover starts to filter away with plenty of sunnier options available.  Wind reseeds to calmer levels.  All suggestive of a UK high or high pressure cell very near the UK.  No point going into further detail than that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    Currently -2.2°C, much less of a breeze compared to last night.

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    Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain

    This winters been such a let down big time never known a winter like it’s for such potential think we can say good bye to this winter after this weekend if we are lucky with any snow big if that’s says it all latest MetO suggesting freezing rain  for weekend sun will have a lot more strength now so nothing will last on ground down here so will have to wait now till next winter 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    1 hour ago, snowysouth said:

    I've just had a look at the local ens. That must have been a colder run? 

    The GFS 12z operational is right on the mean on the ensembles to the 20th, but im looking at the potential evolution from day 6 rather than actual output. An ensemble suite can flip in just a few runs.  

    A few runs scouting out a colder scenario.

    Ensembles for Stroud, placed north within the region.

    E86B15A5-96E4-48FC-BB09-903ECFDA2177.thumb.png.8da3b1de76734d15e18856586671afa0.png

     

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    1 hour ago, Andy Bown said:

    Tonight could be the coldest temperature for 10 to 11 years. That would make it a very notable spell.

    Snow has fallen on 10 days out of 41 in Warminster so far this year. Admittedly ‘only’ flurries on 7 of those but that’s making this a proper winter.

    Ive actually wrapped up my Mediterranean "Oleander' plant which is in the border in the garden, its got through the last 7 UK winters but tonights potential low temps has got me concerned lol. 

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I hope we don't get any freezing rain. That lot we had in 2018 was horrific!

    It made good icicles but it was deadly. You were unable to walk any where and then you had to dodge flying lumps ice that were falling from people's roofs as it began to thaw.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Leaving the will it/won't it snow arguement aside, the UKV is modelling a very cold day on Saturday, possibly the coldest "feeling" day of this spell.  2m temps for many inland areas struggling to get much above freezing;

    1758821570_viewimage(2).thumb.png.fa026cad9453ce1e6a0c9439459e03ce.png

    Add in a notable wind-chill as the winds pick up ahead of frontal activity to our west pressuring the block to our east;

    1985730162_viewimage(1).thumb.png.97ecacdb1d0b2fbc12c3723ac39a2ca5.png

    And very dry air coming up from the SE, over a snowy continent;

    312857026_viewimage(3).thumb.png.06e0ba825197ea53007257d38c1b0c4d.png

    Cold, very cold for UK standards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Reading AWD's great post above this one, i cant help thinking "if only there was a true slider situ for Sat/Sun, with heavy precip but cold winning out". Hey-ho

    Edited by Bristle boy
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    Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire

    On a totally different subject, tonight looks like a good night for the UK star count.

    Star+Count+social+share+image.jpg?v=1609
    TAKEACTION.CPRE.ORG.UK

    Help celebrate our starry skies by taking part in Star Count

    Just been out. It's a bit nippy.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Star count - 30+ indicates truly dark skies

    I have poor eyesight, but I can see thousands.. 😲

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    Posted
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are

    Just washed me carp fishing reels off and the water has froze on patio already so must be bloomin cold 

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    Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
    8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Star count - 30+ indicates truly dark skies

    I have poor eyesight, but I can see thousands.. 😲

    Very good. I got 21 in the square.

    CBA to go back out later when the neighbours have switched their lights off. 😴

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Star count - 30+ indicates truly dark skies

    I have poor eyesight, but I can see thousands.. 😲

    Just went out into the back garden and the stars are incredibly clear, Orion and the Plough looking majestic. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire

    I've just realised that my temporary outdoor (brewing) thermometer doesn't have a minus. Why would it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
    3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Just went out into the back garden and the stars are incredibly clear, Orion and the Plough looking majestic. 

     

    Do the survey. It's based on Orion.

    https://takeaction.cpre.org.uk

     

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Just went out into the back garden and the stars are incredibly clear, Orion and the Plough looking majestic. 

     

    I popped back out as I was going to try some long exposures on my phone, but it has gone all hazy here. ☹️

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Location: Poole
    34 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    I hope we don't get any freezing rain. That lot we had in 2018 was horrific!

    It made good icicles but it was deadly. You were unable to walk any where and then you had to dodge flying lumps ice that were falling from people's roofs as it began to thaw.

     

    Agreed. I have seen it I have no wish to see it again. Took me nearly 2 hours to walk to work and done the splits on my drive. Deadly

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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
    16 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Just went out into the back garden and the stars are incredibly clear, Orion and the Plough looking majestic. 

     

    Completely agree.

    I love looking at the stars. I took This pic from the other night .

     

    930D1D60-4699-4E0E-BE26-919E8E2DA29F.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    Temperature wise quite balmy here tonight compared to others in the region and of course further afield.  A mere -1.3c!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Quite a change on the 18z ICON and not a snowy one unfortunately. 

    Latest 18z ICON now goes down the 15z UKV route with a much more fragmented front traversing the region through Saturday, and possibly not getting to the eastern/north eastern parts of the region at all.  Like the UKV and to a lesser extent, the 12z Arpege, rather than bring any notable snowfall to the region, it shows on/off light snow slowly edging NE across the region;

    iconeu_uk1-42-64-0.thumb.png.855f4c7bffa8da3936f396e35f7932a4.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-66-0.thumb.png.cf77b0dd6caac0ec6fe808e33ce1367d.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-68-0.thumb.png.e600291d1bcd101c23517ef0afe62da6.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-70-0.thumb.png.03aff27dbdbb33dcd991cf9e93c7f4a1.png

    Admittedly, this is probably a half decent run still for Devon and South Somerset, but for those further north and east than that, a definite downgrade.  No notable snowfall at all.

    The white flag is being raised now.  I'll leave it until tomorrow before flying it, just on the off chance things turn back for the better, but it is looking increasingly likely the ship could have sailed, with regards to significant snowfall from this cold spell.

    For balance, I will add that it would still be very cold, as I posted earlier with the UKV output, and would be rather wintry for some with light snow on & off throughout the day.  Just nothing notable accumulating etc.

    Edited by AWD
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    Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
    1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

    I hope we don't get any freezing rain. That lot we had in 2018 was horrific!

    It made good icicles but it was deadly. You were unable to walk any where and then you had to dodge flying lumps ice that were falling from people's roofs as it began to thaw.

     

    I remember your posts about it at the time. Freezing rain, horrible stuff.

    Only ever experienced it once in my life and that was in the early 90s on a Saturday morning. Just walking to the local shop to buy a newspaper was a major ordeal clinging onto people’s fences just to stay upright. Everything covered in ice.

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    Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
    3 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Quite a change on the 18z ICON and not a snowy one unfortunately. 

    Latest 18z ICON now goes down the 15z UKV route with a much more fragmented front traversing the region through Saturday, and possibly not getting to the eastern/north eastern parts of the region at all.  Like the UKV and to a lesser extent, the 12z Arpege, rather than bring any notable snowfall to the region, it shows on/off light snow slowly edging NE across the region;

    iconeu_uk1-42-64-0.thumb.png.855f4c7bffa8da3936f396e35f7932a4.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-66-0.thumb.png.cf77b0dd6caac0ec6fe808e33ce1367d.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-68-0.thumb.png.e600291d1bcd101c23517ef0afe62da6.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-70-0.thumb.png.03aff27dbdbb33dcd991cf9e93c7f4a1.png

    Admittedly, this is probably a half decent run still for Devon and South Somerset, but for those further north and east than that, a definite downgrade.  No notable snowfall at all.

    The white flag is being raised now.  I'll leave it until tomorrow before flying it, just on the off chance things turn back for the better, but it is looking increasingly likely the ship could have sailed, with regards to significant snowfall from this cold spell.

    For balance, I will add that it would still be very cold, as I posted earlier with the UKV output, and would be rather wintry for some with light snow on & off throughout the day.  Just nothing notable accumulating etc.

    Oh ICON, ICON! How could you!? To be fair we were all it expecting it at some point to fall into line with the other models. Yes AWD get the white flag out and ready for tomorrow morning.

    On the plus side remaining fairly dry. Even though we’ve not had snow, I’ve loved having dry weather again with some very pleasant spells of sunshine as well.

    Winter’s not over yet with the expectation of the colder weather returning. I’m not convinced myself but the pros still seem confident and they know more than I do.

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