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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward


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It wasn't a lot but it was enough for a dwarf snowman

A bit late in posting 😂 but we done very well (relatively) down here in the far west of Cornwall today. Proper snow for a solid 6 hours and unlike elsewhere in the country, no issue with settling. Set

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  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are

    Dont look that good now does it,not for my neck of woods anyway though a few may see something in our region. Would be nice if we could all get in on the act but sadly that hope is diminishing.. on a brighter note I did see what I can only describe as a few snow flakes in the breeze so I've got my shovel out just in case 

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  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    I see daytime temps have increased for Wednesday now. By no means warm, but nothing like zero that was being forecast.

    No ice days here this week.

    The wind has dropped right off too.

    Does that mean no snow for southwest Friday? if temps have increased. all rain? 

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  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    Just now, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    Does that mean no snow for southwest Friday? if temps have increased. all rain? 

    I was just mentioning how Wednesday wasn't looking as cold as it was a few days ago.

    re Friday, I cannot speak for other areas, but I know from experience that the wind switching to ESE isn't a good sign down near the coast. If it was switching from ESE to E, it would be a different story. Beyond that, probably close to double figure temps here by Monday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netley Abbey
  • Location: Netley Abbey
    3 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    Does that mean no snow for southwest Friday? if temps have increased. all rain? 

    Yeah it was well voiced to be 3 or 4 ice days when in reality where i am its none... today it was 0.4c max..tomoz 1c wed 3 thurs 3 etc 

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  • Location: Netley Abbey
  • Location: Netley Abbey
    1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

    I was just mentioning how Wednesday wasn't looking as cold as it was a few days ago.

    re Friday, I cannot speak for other areas, but I know from experience that the wind switching to ESE isn't a good sign down near the coast. If it was switching from ESE to E, it would be a different story. Beyond that, probably close to double figure temps here by Monday.

    Yep agree ese can be snow on immediate coast but its very marginal. Ths majority of the time its rain which isnt great for me! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    I was just mentioning how Wednesday wasn't looking as cold as it was a few days ago.

    re Friday, I cannot speak for other areas, but I know from experience that the wind switching to ESE isn't a good sign down near the coast. If it was switching from ESE to E, it would be a different story. Beyond that, probably close to double figure temps here by Monday.

    Indeed 

    It starts warming up here from Wednesday by Saturday maximum temperature is 10c

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  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL

    A little bit of a disappointing day today after some avid radar watching 😶

    Still a few potential opportunities over the next few days across our region to at least see some snow falling on the Arpege 12z:

    A few streamers reaching the east of our region during the day tomorrow.

    A coastal streamer setting up along the south coast tomorrow afternoon/evening.

    A feature moving north from the south coast on Thursday.

    Fd7ulKEoQL.thumb.gif.aff0e636e03730670cf8290a6fde9da0.gif

     

    Edited by wiltshire weather
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  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

    Very light snow here again now. Nothing special at all but it's been nice to finally see falling snow this winter.

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  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW BABY
  • Location: Yate, Bristol

    I'll probably give it until Wednesday evening before writing off the Thurs / Fri snow potential. We're still within that timeframe where it can easily flip back again. This MetO vid was only posted a few hours ago and it's clear there's still lots of uncertainty:
     

     

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  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    Forecast here for tomorrow obviously computing a channel streamer

    Screenshot_20210208-205835_Met Office.jpg

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  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
    15 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

    I'll probably give it until Wednesday evening before writing off the Thurs / Fri snow potential. We're still within that timeframe where it can easily flip back again. This MetO vid was only posted a few hours ago and it's clear there's still lots of uncertainty:
     

     

    Thanks for posting that.

    Obviously the positioning of showers should not be taken literally but I did see he showed a batch making their way across to us during the day tomorrow. Also the feature on Thursday was there as well although I didn't see the channel streamer on there for later tomorrow.

    Definitely worth keeping an eye on the radar 🙂 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    This cold spell is turning out to be a bit of a damp squib really isn't it! 😢

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  • Location: Snow Starved Southampton
  • Location: Snow Starved Southampton

    The uncertainty is perfectly illustrated in this graphic:

    101F2F5C-A024-4EF6-AC75-6CCD0A64298C.png

    That shows a significant snow event right down the spine of the UK next Saturday, but it really is too far out to say that with any certainty. It really is on a knife edge.

    This chart shows that it's making a really good go at getting in, which brings a greater chance of snowfall for more...but also introduces the risk of milder air making more inroads. It is a really, really delicate balancing act. I really can't call it to be honest, could go 1 of 3 ways.

    - Front stalls west, no further than Devon - far SW could get a decent snow event from that. Rest of us stay in cold air, but remain bone dry.

    - Front makes more inroads east, snow for more along the central southern area - and further north - but introducing milder air for those further south and west - comes with that risk.

    - Front blasts through very quickly, and gives a quick transitionary snow event for most before rain is the name of the game for all.

    My money is on the first outcome.

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  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset

    My phone app is showing quite a jump in temperatures for the weekend, up to 7 and 8 degrees with rain.  I guess we need to ‘enjoy’ this wintry spell whilst we still have it 😂😂

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  • Location: East Dartmoor
  • Location: East Dartmoor
    20 minutes ago, festivalking said:

    Forecast here for tomorrow obviously computing a channel streamer

    Screenshot_20210208-205835_Met Office.jpg

    Wow! I've only got cloud and no snow all day tomorrow on my side of the Moor. Good luck!

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    Posted
  • Location: west dartmoor
  • Location: west dartmoor
    1 minute ago, gman88667733 said:

    Wow! I've only got cloud and no snow all day tomorrow on my side of the Moor. Good luck!

    I've only got cloud and no snow too. Radar watching tomorrow me thinks! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW BABY
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
    4 minutes ago, SouthernSnowFan said:

    It is a really, really delicate balancing act. I really can't call it to be honest, could go 1 of 3 ways.

    - Front stalls west, no further than Devon - far SW could get a decent snow event from that. Rest of us stay in cold air, but remain bone dry.

    - Front makes more inroads east, snow for more along the central southern area - and further north - but introducing milder air for those further south and west - comes with that risk.

    - Front blasts through very quickly, and gives a quick transitionary snow event for most before rain is the name of the game for all.

    My money is on the first outcome.


    Yeah I think you're right. First option is looking like the form horse right now.

    Dreaming of some middleground scenario where it stalls just a little further inland. 🤤

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    12 minutes ago, SouthernSnowFan said:

    The uncertainty is perfectly illustrated in this graphic:

    101F2F5C-A024-4EF6-AC75-6CCD0A64298C.png

    That shows a significant snow event right down the spine of the UK next Saturday, but it really is too far out to say that with any certainty. It really is on a knife edge.

    This chart shows that it's making a really good go at getting in, which brings a greater chance of snowfall for more...but also introduces the risk of milder air making more inroads. It is a really, really delicate balancing act. I really can't call it to be honest, could go 1 of 3 ways.

    - Front stalls west, no further than Devon - far SW could get a decent snow event from that. Rest of us stay in cold air, but remain bone dry.

    - Front makes more inroads east, snow for more along the central southern area - and further north - but introducing milder air for those further south and west - comes with that risk.

    - Front blasts through very quickly, and gives a quick transitionary snow event for most before rain is the name of the game for all.

    My money is on the first outcome.

    The first outcome? Good luck with 10c temperatures 😞

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  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    2 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Didn't think I'd be back on tonight but the 18z ICON brought me back.  To model goes down a different route and reinvigorates Thursdays night front over Devon into Friday, providing some notable snowfall for many parts of the West Country;

    iconeu_uk1-42-84-0.thumb.png.05d0edf9559d305dbb578596d21d538d.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-87-0.thumb.png.66ff8b1dd164560b88633997489d8213.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-90-0.thumb.png.5101f629d04580cf4954fa94f3b837d9.png

    Worth bearing in mind, it's very much the outside scenario at present, not much (if any) support for this on Friday, but hey, we need all the straws we can get at the moment.

    Can we all bank this.

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