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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward


Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom

    The streamer band is literally over the M3, maybe even the width of the motorway. 

    There will be neighbourhoods of the same village that get more snow than others, it is that localised.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calne, Wiltshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & storms.
  • Location: Calne, Wiltshire
    3 hours ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    We’ll see I’m not ruling out anything 

    Correct me if I’m wrong (I’ve tried looking for your post to quote) but didn’t you throw in the towel yesterday and declare you’d be back next winter? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    28 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

    There's a definite streamer setting up just north of the A303 at the moment.

    I think it may sink southwards through the early hours but may well give anyone under it a decent dusting, especially if it is slow moving.

     

    Snow easing off now and like you say looks to perhaps be sinking south.  Have a cm or so.

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    1 hour ago, khodds said:

    Blimey it’s quiet in here tonight. Everyone given up 🤷🏼‍♀️😂 am I the last one standing at this party?! 
     

    standard 😂😂🥳

    Yes. PS Whens the thunder coming?

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    1 hour ago, MidnightSnow said:


    Nah the party is still going for me. Feel a lot better now it's not just the ICON suggesting decent snow on Saturday. Hoping to hear a more detailed forecast from the MetO tomorrow for the weekend. 

    Your in for a heartache! I'll have the Valium on stand by ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Aptly named by Chiono I saw the other day, my ‘snow body clock’ has woken me up for a radar peek and curtain twitch and lo and behold we have a dusting 🎉

    Looks like we’re under the streamer so here’s hoping it continues for a while eh! Think Icon was the only model I saw to show a streamer getting close to me so well done that model. 

    Edited by dec10snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    Snow just missed me to the north, somebody either side of the A338 must’ve had a few flakes. -2.0°C 

    Edited by CheesepuffScott
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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
    3 hours ago, CheesepuffScott said:

    Snow just missed me to the north, somebody either side of the A338 must’ve had a few flakes. -2.0°C 

    Decent ‘thick dusting’ overnight, radar suggests between Warminster-Salisbury might have had a bit more.

    Some cretin has already made tyre tracks though!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    Some shower activity across Exeter moving onto dartmoor at the moment. Signal for a spell of heavier snow for the moor early tomorrow for an hour or so.

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    Posted
  • Location: Yelverton, Dartmoor
  • Location: Yelverton, Dartmoor
    Just now, SNOW CRYSTAL said:

    Good morning nice to see some of you got a bit of a dusting. Light sizzle just started here. 

    No it's not sizzling, bloody prescriptive text, must learn to read before posting

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    Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL

    Morning all. Glad to see we had a bit more of a dusting last night across some parts of the region.

    Today it looks less likely but I'm still keeping an eye on a convergence line sinking south from the Wash during the day along which some snow may pop up, mainly in eastern areas.

    That same convergence line then becomes the disturbance which moves back north tomorrow giving some in the SW regions a possible spell of snow.

    Quick look at the models and my view has not changed really since last night. Possible snow events Fri-Sun on both the Icon (still) and the GFS, and I'm still not completely convinced the mild air will push over anything but the more western parts of our region. Meto outlook continues to be along the same lines so they must be seeing something we don't have access to.

    The fax charts are a good guide to their insight and the new ones for Fri and Sat are quite intriguing with a front draped somewhere across us every day (although with the wind direction from the drier SE/SSE in front of them there may not be too much moisture on them it has to be said):

    Fri 00hrs: image.png.29fade734d0b54bde3b8f3ff847a4fa2.png

     

    Fri 12hrsimage.thumb.png.069474f7994705724b3bd0bd8bf23f1d.png

    Sat 00hrs:image.thumb.png.a1d94183e60ee0db21f004bbd589d514.png

    Sat 12 hrs: image.thumb.png.2ddf90616c5ff9b25ec1a5cee2fd72a5.png

    The fronts are just inching their way across so will be interesting to see the updated ones for Sunday when they come out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    Morning All, after an overnight low of -2.2°C at: 02:01, currently -0.4°C, with a light breeze in from the East / NE, windchill is certainly noticeable again today, and overcast, as the beachcam shows this morning...lots of cloud with nowt to fall out of them...

     

    image.thumb.png.666d0f4a0202e1d5b86e4ff9d01349f9.png 

    image.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
    5 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

    Morning all. Glad to see we had a bit more of a dusting last night across some parts of the region.

    Today it looks less likely but I'm still keeping an eye on a convergence line sinking south from the Wash during the day along which some snow may pop up, mainly in eastern areas.

    That same convergence line then becomes the disturbance which moves back north tomorrow giving some in the SW regions a possible spell of snow.

    Quick look at the models and my view has not changed really since last night. Possible snow events Fri-Sun on both the Icon (still) and the GFS, and I'm still not completely convinced the mild air will push over anything but the more western parts of our region. Meto outlook continues to be along the same lines so they must be seeing something we don't have access to.

    The fax charts are a good guide to their insight and the new ones for Fri and Sat are quite intriguing with a front draped somewhere across us every day (although with the wind direction from the drier SE/SSE in front of them there may not be too much moisture on them it has to be said):

    Fri 00hrs: image.png.29fade734d0b54bde3b8f3ff847a4fa2.png

     

    Fri 12hrsimage.thumb.png.069474f7994705724b3bd0bd8bf23f1d.png

    Sat 00hrs:image.thumb.png.a1d94183e60ee0db21f004bbd589d514.png

    Sat 12 hrs: image.thumb.png.2ddf90616c5ff9b25ec1a5cee2fd72a5.png

    The fronts are just inching their way across so will be interesting to see the updated ones for Sunday when they come out.

    The interesting thing to note on the last slide of the Fax chart you posted for Saturday 12hrs is the warm sector of that weather system is kept to the south of us so could see some snow across the region. The one behind it however looks like the one that will usher in something milder unless it to slides further south BUT Sunday is still along way off to be talking any detail. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
    3 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Oh hail the mighty ICON.  This morning's 0z ICON stands firm with its previous output regarding Saturday, with a band of snow for most of the region for a good part of the day.  I won't post every chart, to save cluttering the thread, but here is a snapshot of every 3 hours or so;

    iconeu_uk1-42-81-0.thumb.png.d98014f0ae20e9f3b3048b86306dc980.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-84-0.thumb.png.ab61c9abb7afe7556e4b16f1a71d4a29.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-87-0.thumb.png.a7f4906923f07ec1a28d2130cd5b4310.png

    It's consistent, I'll give it that, but unfortunetly still remains rather much on its own, especially with regards to intensity.

    Bless the ICON for wanting to give us a snowy Saturday and as you say it’s stood firm in its consistency.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shaftesbury, Dorset, 217m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,cold, & sunny & warm
  • Location: Shaftesbury, Dorset, 217m asl

    Morning from a very cold and slightly white shaftesbury. Overnight low of-2.5c with another hard frost. Light snow shower of powdery,dry snow giving a light dusting but blown everywhere thanks to the wind.

    What will the weekend bring?

    Heart says snow but head says mild

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    The 0z UKV, whilst similar in the positioning and timing of the frontal wave on Saturday, is far more fragmented.  It does still bring some snow to northern and eastern parts of the region, here again is a quick snapshot;

    viewimage.thumb.png.6dec44e49dc86b3391b20019e4856bd4.png

    968768226_viewimage(1).thumb.png.02d45020f94b5cb38c982fb94417305e.png

    I wouldn't take location or intensity too specific though, unlike the ICON, this model has changed a lot more regarding PPN on Saturday, and will no doubt change in detail again this evening.  Just use it as a general trend of a frontal system slowly coming in from the W/SW on Saturday, possibly giving northern and eastern parts of the region some snow.  Don't look into further detail than that for now, IMO.

    Just one observation from the latest UKV extended though, it is much slower than its predecessor, the 15z run of yesterday, in bringing in less cold air for the northern and eastern parts of the region.  Here are the 2m temps yesterday's 15z was showing for Sunday afternoon;

    2083177744_viewimage(5).thumb.png.cf9d0e533665225452687efb3491cb3b.png

    And now here are the temps this mornings 03z run is showing for Sunday afternoon, along with wind-chill etc;

    460814813_viewimage(2).thumb.png.c72f31cde87243d2287bec2af5d595d6.png

    1288813024_viewimage(3).thumb.png.ed8cd0e6fc49e0e6e44bccd3bac9032d.png

    468141150_viewimage(4).thumb.png.e3024948e2fee3c13b75543896cf0760.png

    As you can see, it's a much slower evolution this morning, which may explain the fragmentation of Saturdays front more.  Whilst it does still become less cold for all of us eventually, it is slower.  Any further slow downs over the coming days and we maybe looking at some more snow (for northern and eastern areas of the region) from the band of PPN arriving later on Sunday.

    However, that's getting widely speculative now.  My confidence for a notable snowfall on Saturday, IMBY, still remains critically, stupidly low unfortunately.  

    Edited by AWD
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Latest EC Ens for Bristol continue to show a clear and unanimous warm up from Sunday onwards, no getting away from that.

    However, one little observation I have noticed is from these;

    IMG_20210210_082934.thumb.jpg.9400cb137b2676566174946f29367d1f.jpg

    is the signal for PPN has markedly increased on Saturday (red circle). 

    This, along side 2m temps likely remaining sub 3c (black circle) does provide the option for a higher chance of some snowfall for at least, this part of the region, not that it would last particularly long though looking at the clear trend in 2m temps over the weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Location: Poole
    40 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

    Morning All, after an overnight low of -2.2°C at: 02:01, currently -0.4°C, with a light breeze in from the East / NE, windchill is certainly noticeable again today, and overcast, as the beachcam shows this morning...lots of cloud with nowt to fall out of them...

     

    image.thumb.png.666d0f4a0202e1d5b86e4ff9d01349f9.png 

    image.png

    Magnifying glass out for snizzle in Poole 

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    Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth,Hampshire
  • Location: Portsmouth,Hampshire

    Light snow here at moment, starting to get a fine dusting on cars LOL might need my eyes testing its just a dirty car I was looking at..😂😂 Yep not dusting cars yet!!! . Looking at the radar it looks like that lot in the East is heading my way.. Hope it's a full covering, although I'm just happy to see it falling!! 🙂

    Edited by PleaseSnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    FWIW, latest EC Det is similiar to the overnight UKV extended, in that it brings a band of fragmented and mainly light snow over the region during Saturday.

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