Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward


Mapantz
 Share

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
    1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    Weak streamer forming just below the line of the M4

    Convergence zone?

    I was looking at that, M3 streamer?

    I don't wanna get my hopes up though......... 😕

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Location: Poole
    Just now, Dorsetbred said:

    And there it is SPRING...

    The ens for my area have been pretty accurate. Virtually no ppn and that rise in temps has been modelled for days

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms /Snow
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.
    20 minutes ago, camturbo said:

    Let's hope your gut feeling is correct. There seems so much uncertainty dont think anyone knows,blimey even the weather dont know what is want to do,cloudy bit of sun bit of dandruff etc. All we want is snow and a decent amount surely not to much to ask.

    Thanks for reply........yes one decent snowfall is all we all want eh ❄❄🙂

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
    2 minutes ago, snowysouth said:

    The ens for my area have been pretty accurate. Virtually no ppn and that rise in temps has been modelled for days

    I think a lot of people have been ‘snow blind’ this week!  The change has been modelled well now for several days, but people see what they want to I guess. 

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Snow Starved Southampton
  • Location: Snow Starved Southampton

    It would feel such a waste to have to endure such cold air but actually get nothing from it bar some flakes floating around in the sky. No frost, no ice, no laying snow (in this part anyway)

    I'm still holding out hope for a battleground scenario, but even that looks slim for most of us now. Feels like we will just transition silently into milder air and bring in the inventible rain, which obviously won't miss us!

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    3 minutes ago, JimBob said:

    I think a lot of people have been ‘snow blind’ this week!  The change has been modelled well now for several days, but people see what they want to I guess. 

    It's been fun though.  Like I said earlier, the chase (no matter how it ends up) has been a welcome distraction from all the crap going on in the world right now.

    We are used to disappointment in this region anyway, with regards to wintry weather.  That won't stop us doing it all again next time still though.

    • Like 9
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
    36 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

    Some really low dew points being forecast for Saturday as wind veers SSE, a question for the more knowledgeable in here, if the winds veer South would we not pick up streamers off the English Channel?

    Has happened, I remember in 2013 there was a brief window of Southerly winds that brought showers in off The Channel. However, with Southerlies, normally comes mildier air.

    Worth noting that Northern France will have some decent snow cover from that band over there at the moment. Along with the overall cold continent, the SE'ly winds will be bitter this weekend. 

    Edited by Dean E
    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    33 minutes ago, Glenosnow said:

    Evening all,after an overnight low of -1.5°C temp climbed to 2.3°C at around 3pm and now currently back down to -0.9°C.......had a nice little dusting this morning to add to the other paltry efforts so far this winter 😏

    Quick question to the more knowledgeable peeps on here.

    Looking at the outlook and possible breakdown at some point.....does anyone think that this breakdown will get pushed back further and further?........... as in the past I've seen cold spells last longer as it takes the Atlantic a few bites of the cherry to make proper inroads....or does anyone think the mild air will win out more quickly?

    My gut feeling is that cold air is going to hold on.🙂

    Looking further out the suggestion is that the inbound later in the week doesn't make massive inroads, but it possibly sufficient to cut a chink in the cold armour, as following that the next inbound front does  make it across in to the Uk, and more follow next week. 

    Let's see if your gut is right..

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms /Snow
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.
    Just now, Dorsetbred said:

    Looking further out the suggestion is that the inbound later in the week doesn't make massive inroads, but it possibly sufficient to cut a chink in the cold armour, as following that the next inbound front does  make it across in to the Uk, and more follow next week. 

    Let's see if your gut is right..

    Thanks Dorsetbred,😉👍

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
    16 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    Weak streamer forming just below the line of the M4

    Convergence zone?

    As per the Arome. Posted a couple of pages back. Winds diverge before midnight, but that's a few hours away yet. 

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    Just now, jtay said:

    As per the Arome. Posted a couple of pages back. Winds diverge before midnight, but that's a few hours away yet. 

    Yeah think I saw that post 🙂

    literally like they saw the future 😅

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Latest 15z UKV extended shows a very slow moving weather front over the West Country on Saturday;

    viewimage.thumb.png.9f50546d882128866c2d3975c2d76907.png

    884781232_viewimage(1).thumb.png.094852ea09e5e4343b4157f8494c4ba1.png

    192619638_viewimage(2).thumb.png.86ae6c9b539d748d300a53e717a55b91.png

    954229633_viewimage(3).thumb.png.f3a187393b0da03367625989d905a33c.png

    A good few hours of snowfall for those in the northern and eastern parts of the region before turning to rain for most of us;

    139053530_viewimage(4).thumb.png.8fbbff560a24afa905ed4735884c4b02.png

    620171114_viewimage(5).thumb.png.faf17cfa8338899edf1174fd26aaf176.png

    Albeit, there isn't much PPN left on it by the time we get to this point.  It's vastly different from the 03z extended run though so it's probably best to leave in the "maybe" pile again.

    Either way, whilst slightly better than the 0z output, tonight's 12z output overall isn't particular enthusiastic about a decent snow event before less cold air arrives (which is inevitable now).  My confidence hasn't changed, and remains at critically, stupidly low.

    Edited by AWD
    • Like 5
    • Thanks 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Location: Poole
    13 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

    Looking further out the suggestion is that the inbound later in the week doesn't make massive inroads, but it possibly sufficient to cut a chink in the cold armour, as following that the next inbound front does  make it across in to the Uk, and more follow next week. 

    Let's see if your gut is right..

    I think it was 2013 when the cold air was simply washed away. The temp rise was rapid as was the thaw. I HATE battle grounds. We don't win here. 

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl

    Evening all, just watched Fergie's forecast, his advice is take everything with a pinch of salt for the foreseeable. Might get milder at the weekend, might not, might snow, might not, currently no clear way forward.

    Personally, I'd be surprised if the cold caves into the milder weather from the SW without putting up a bit of a fight. Deep cold is usually quite difficult to shift unless there's a large push from the Atlantic and what's currently seen as incoming from that direction isn't a big, strong low pressure system.

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    7 minutes ago, jethro said:

    Evening all, just watched Fergie's forecast, his advice is take everything with a pinch of salt for the foreseeable. Might get milder at the weekend, might not, might snow, might not, currently no clear way forward.

    Personally, I'd be surprised if the cold caves into the milder weather from the SW without putting up a bit of a fight. Deep cold is usually quite difficult to shift unless there's a large push from the Atlantic and what's currently seen as incoming from that direction isn't a big, strong low pressure system.

    True, it'll be interesting to see what this melee produces 

    image.thumb.png.79100046b97290bb5c1863a9a7a8fd10.png

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom

    Anyone here based in Jersey?

    That low in N France getting close to Jersey, maybe some snow?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    The fronts may not push far inland, but with a southerly draw from Monday, it guarantees double figures here. Cold might be hard to budge on a UK scale, but it always retreats from here. It did so extremely quickly during the 2018 cold spell, and every other in the last 20 years.

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Langford
  • Location: Langford
    27 minutes ago, jethro said:

    Evening all, just watched Fergie's forecast, his advice is take everything with a pinch of salt for the foreseeable. Might get milder at the weekend, might not, might snow, might not, currently no clear way forward.

    Personally, I'd be surprised if the cold caves into the milder weather from the SW without putting up a bit of a fight. Deep cold is usually quite difficult to shift unless there's a large push from the Atlantic and what's currently seen as incoming from that direction isn't a big, strong low pressure system.

    Temperatures of 4.0 tomorrow in places, certainly no beast. A few days ago temperatures were forecast as 0 across the board at best for Wednesday.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    2 minutes ago, Langford N.Somerset said:

    Temperatures of 4.0 tomorrow in places, certainly no beast. A few days ago temperatures were forecast as 0 across the board at best for Wednesday.

    No one has claimed it’s a beast 

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Undeniable agreement in 12z Ens for a return to nearer average conditions from Sunday onwards now, for my area at least, (May differ in timing for other areas).  These are for Bristol;

    Screenshot_2021-02-09-19-44-09-04.thumb.jpg.f6abced274b1632d32672ef4b216c211.jpg

    Good chance we will go out with a whimper according to the ens too, with only a few offering something wintry on Saturday, before milder air arrives.

    That ICON run earlier seems a long long time ago now.  I think there is more chance of Trump being re-elected than that coming off.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain

    Could have   20cm snow or more Saturday in are region of we are lucky 🤞

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater

    Just been on my evening lockdown walk and can confirm it’s snizzling again 🥳

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
     Share

    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...