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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward


Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    30 minutes ago, dr weather said:

    Seems to be some rain (not much) approaching SW Ireland and Cornwall currently, perhaps 50-100 miles offshore ... Is that in the forecast? Maybe it's expected that the high pressure will fend it off?

    I saw this too!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tetbury
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and crisp
  • Location: Tetbury

    Reached 34.3 today on my weather station, one of the hottest so far in 2021 and they said more easterly winds tommow to send hotter weather west! Not even seen any thunderstorms, keep missing them 😞

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    A max of 30.7°C today. Currently 28.4°C. More of a breeze this evening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

    A max of 30.7°C today. Currently 28.4°C. More of a breeze this evening.

    A max of 30.6°C today. Currently 28.4°C. 

    I think we will call it a tie today!

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

    30c breached late this afternoon, rather a hazier appearance to the sky than the previous days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: warm summers,gales, thunder lightning frosty mornings .
  • Location: Taunton Somerset

    32c here today and currently 24 C .it so hot and feels airless . Think sleep will be minimal . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    Morning All, staying warm overnight with a low of 

    14.6°C at: 05:07, currently 

    17.4°C  with RH90%

    A quiet start to the day on the beach..

    image.thumb.png.1fe92127dbc012dda1414c5dd066ee80.png

    Edited by Dorsetbred
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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    So a poor outlook according to model discussions, always the way when the kids break up for School! Shame.

    I was moored up at Studland Bay yesterday then launched a new Kayak from the boat.

    The sea was very warm over that side.

    But a big lesson learnt! Was very surprised how quick the tide depth came up while sat in that bay. The boat depth had 3 foot spare on the gauge. I was able to jump out the boat and touch the bottom easily then climb in the kayak.

    I went for a final ride for only 10 mins got back to the boat thinking the depth would be about the same, jumped out the Kayak flipping it then to my shock couldn't touch the bottom. Was really tough trying to swim pulling a 2 man flipped Kayak to the boat which was only 15 feet away. Don't think I've ever seen the tide level come up that quick there. Was clearly an undercurrent.

    I looked at the depth gauge after getting back on and it had risen 10 feet in that short space of time!

    So be aware if you ever let kids go out in that bay when tide is out, took me by surprise and I'm fairly confident in the water.

    I notice too when ever we approach a full moon we seem to get a weather reset back to rain. Not sure if that's just coincidence or not but see it quite often.

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    Don't go in the model thread if you enjoy sunshine. Talk about depressive reading! Ridiculous for the time of year!

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, Dan Clow said:

    Don't go in the model thread if you enjoy sunshine. Talk about depressive reading! Ridiculous for the time of year!

    The irksome thing is it’s only 10 days ago that we ended a very wet period in the Southern 1/4 of the country with some crazy rainfall totals and flooding. It’s only 7 days ago that heat arrived here.
     

    Yet some people would have you believe it’s been a glorious summer nationwide! 
     

    The change back to wet literally happening the night the schools break up is laughable! But not unprecedented!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Given the sudden change to cooler and wetter you’d think it was the equinox! Very reminiscent of last September and to a lesser extent 2019.

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    Posted
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Severe
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset

    More Cu today in North Somerset than yesterday. Very little over South Wales (second pic). 

     

     

    IMG_2339.jpg

    IMG_2342.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    28.6°C not long ago. Mowed the lawn and done other various bits around the garden - getting it done before everything becomes wet again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    Crazy how much the met office app has changed again, I had showers showing Monday Tuesday Wednesday but now only showing 40% chance at 4pm Monday that's it. Apart from showers on Sat and 60% chance on Sunday afternoon.

    Is the model thread overreacting? Doesn't actually look that bad going by the app.

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    Is it worth keeping an eye on that cloud coming up from the channel and South for later, maybe possible storm potential?

    Edited by Dan Clow
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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    9 hours ago, Dan Clow said:

    Don't go in the model thread if you enjoy sunshine. Talk about depressive reading! Ridiculous for the time of year!

    Good to see the MOD thread keeps a consistent approach even in summer,..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: warm summers,gales, thunder lightning frosty mornings .
  • Location: Taunton Somerset

    Max of  29 C today , currently 24C . 

    Felling poorly with the heat now,  bad headache , nausea and dizziness so I'm sorry in one way it's ending but in another relieved . 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    What a great storm update for us in the South! Come on we have to get lucky this time!!!

     

    Throughout the day there is a risk of the odd elevated shower/thunderstorm passing close to the Isles of Scilly and tip of Cornwall, but the main focus begins late afternoon near the Channel Islands onwards. Profiles over NW France appear capped to surface-based convection, and would ideally require surface temperatures closer to the mid 30s Celsius. However, a combination of warm advection/isentropic upglide and forced ascent from divergence aloft as the upper low over Biscay approaches is expected to result in elevated thunderstorms developing, already present over the Bay of Biscay in the morning and these then migrating across the Brest peninsula to the Channel Islands around late afternoon/early evening. A slow migration northwards is then expected through the evening and night hours into southern England. As is often the case with elevated thunderstorms the exact extent of lightning activity is uncertain; however profiles exhibit potential for deep convection rooted from the 800-850mb layer with substantial cloud-layer shear and dry mid-levels to support some potentially fairly active thunderstorms. The greatest instability and steepest mid-level lapse rates will naturally be towards the eastern half of the English Channel closest to the main untouched Theta-W plume emanating from France. Nonetheless, elevated thunderstorms are likely over the English Channel, perhaps as far west as Devon/south Cornwall initially, but the focus for lightning through the night may become confined to areas further to the east with time as thunderstorms in the west weaken and merge into more generic areas of heavy, convective rainfall with fairly saturated profiles. In fact, it may be the case that very little activity occurs east of the Isle of Wight until the early hours, with the potential for an uptick in activity to develop over S / SE England during the early hours of Saturday.  Analysis of cross-section data suggests there may be two main features - the bulk of the thunderstorms along the cold front/occlusion, but scope for more isolated very high-based elevated storms perhaps earlier on a preceding pre-frontal trough. Cloud tops in the most potent storms could get close to 40,000ft, and despite the elevated nature it is possible a couple of storms over the English Channel and into Cen S / SE England may exhibit some transient supercellular characteristics which may pose the threat of some marginally-severe hail. The main hazard, however, will be heavy rain and flash flooding potential, alongside lightning. There will already be a brisk easterly wind through the English Channel due to the existing surface pressure gradient, however brief gusts 50-60mph may be possible near the most intense cells (even higher offshore).

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    Posted
  • Location: SW of Sherborne. About a mile from the Somerset border.
  • Location: SW of Sherborne. About a mile from the Somerset border.

    Six consecutive days with a max of 30°C+.  First time in my record here which goes back to 2000.  Previously 2003 held the record with four days in August.  Not sure that it will get that high today.  Pleasant north-easterly blowing this morning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    Have a really good feeling about this strom risk later. Feels completely different out today alot of cool breeze about too. With so much activity to the South west already with things really expected to pick up tonight I think were in with a great chance! This could be a big event!

    Edited by Dan Clow
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    Posted
  • Location: Corfe Mullen,Wimborne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Corfe Mullen,Wimborne
    6 minutes ago, Dan Clow said:

    Have a really good feeling about this strom risk later. Feels completely different out today alot of cool breeze about too. With so much activity to the South west already with things really expected to pick up tonight I think were in with a great chance! This could be a bit event!

    Hope you are right. Although we had that heavy rain a couple of weeks ago, we haven't had any significant thunderstorms for a long time.

    Feeling pleasant outside (and inside) at the moment with a light breeze and sunshine.

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