Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

It wasn't a lot but it was enough for a dwarf snowman

A bit late in posting 😂 but we done very well (relatively) down here in the far west of Cornwall today. Proper snow for a solid 6 hours and unlike elsewhere in the country, no issue with settling. Set

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
    2 minutes ago, AWD said:

    12z ICON is a perfect BANK for many of us for Saturday.

    Firstly, it continues the trend for light, fragmented snow over Devon on Thursday night;

    iconeu_uk1-42-68-0.thumb.png.4789529a9409b7202b9a23fd12f67a43.png

    Then look at this for Saturday;

    iconeu_uk1-42-99-0.thumb.png.0ae58107eb215792d2f954efb27797d6.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-102-0.thumb.png.921db24499c08020e3d1de1daf843ffa.png

    Compared to ANY 0z output, that's a massive improvement for many of us.  Just a shame it's the ICON and not something more reliable.

    That would be a dream liie outcome but much like yourself my initial optomism has melted away like the flurry we had yesterday.

    Doesnt look great and I will kick myself for not being over 200m if we get a sleety mess again.

    Tonight I will forget about weather and models and play age of empires and dream about my bitcoin. 🤪

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater

    Maybe this is another turning point... let’s see what the 18z brings

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
    Just now, khodds said:

    Maybe this is another turning point... let’s see what the 18z brings

    The straw that I clutch onto is that cold air is never modelled well and tends to be tougher to move than models forecast so we may get upgrades closer to events but lets just see.

    I shall put my hopium bong away for now. 😜

     

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    30 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

    Of course the upstream feed has now been chopped, so it's firing blanks, as the image below confirms

    image.png.b8e60b06f1df729bd3ceb525896a8a82.png

    What a relief!! LOL!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire

    Didn't manage an ice day today, temperatures reached a dizzy high of 0.6°C. Awoke to a dusting of snow today, amazing to see it evaporate rather than melt. Wind suddenly strengthened around 2pm and changed to an Easterly, now feels bitter.

    Currently -1.0°C, DP -5.3°C

    Feels like -8.1°C.

    Edited by Dean E
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
    26 minutes ago, AWD said:

    So far, for the weekend, we have;

    12z ICON - heavy snow for many away from the far south west.

    12z GFS & 12z Arpege - some light snow for the far South West on Saturday, dry for areas further north and east until later on Sunday.  Remaining cold in these areas.  Delayed breakdown.

    12z Nwx Model - Snow to rain event on Saturday, longer (snowfall) the further northeast in the region you are.

    Some sort of improvement so far then, compared to the 0z output.  More importantly, a hell of a lot of uncertainty.

     

    It certainly doesn't look 'nailed on' for any outcome at the moment, and with the Meto update still maintaining the mostly cold outlook even after the dreadful stuff the 0z models churned out, there has to be hope that things may swing back to cold once again on the models! Certainly many in the mod thread this morning were expecting the Meto to drastically change their outlook, so the fact they haven't is very interesting.

    It also looks like they're not following their own model output (the one we can see anyway).

    It would certainly be great for all of us down here if the Icon has managed to put one over one the 'big guns' for this weekend 🙂 

    Edited by wiltshire weather
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & cold (love it) any extremes.
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell

    Meanwhile heaviest snow flurry of the present cold spell has left my patio furniture positively ’speckled’ ❄️😂

    902F59D5-0DF0-4636-A4E3-8419EF0A950C.jpeg

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Gosport
  • Location: Gosport

    Been a nice day with plenty of sunny spells.
    Temp got to 1.2c at 2pm.
    The sunshine on the greenhouse glass got the temp in there to 8c mid afternoon.
    That overnight snow dusting on the glass may also have helped to warm it up.

    Temp has been dropping since and is now 0.2c, the greenhouse temp was 2c.
    The easterly wind 12-16mph, when outside makes it feel bitter today.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    8 minutes ago, Crackerjack said:

    Meanwhile heaviest snow flurry of the present cold spell has left my patio furniture positively ’speckled’ ❄️😂

    902F59D5-0DF0-4636-A4E3-8419EF0A950C.jpeg

    Yeah, got exactly that on an upturned black plastic pond that we've yet to put in. It was thrilling!

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Poole , Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & T-Storms
  • Location: Poole , Dorset

    I’ve watched this band move north from Biscay all afternoon, very slow moving, will it decay as it hits higher pressure, it’s now over the Cherbourg peninsula.

    1E6D5DA1-0F62-4772-A87F-CB78332477A2.jpeg

    Edited by Dorset_mist
    Typo
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Shaftesbury, Dorset, 217m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,cold, & sunny & warm
  • Location: Shaftesbury, Dorset, 217m asl

    Currently -1.4 and somehow got the car up the drive through the still remaining 2.5cm drifts!😍

    Looking at European temps there is a lot of very cold air cl

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Corfe Mullen,Wimborne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Corfe Mullen,Wimborne
    21 minutes ago, Dorset_mist said:

    I’ve watched this band move north from Biscay all afternoon, very slow moving, will it decay as it hits higher pressure, it’s now over the Cherbourg peninsula.

    1E6D5DA1-0F62-4772-A87F-CB78332477A2.jpeg

    You can be sure if that was a rain band it would be over us by now!

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    38 minutes ago, Dorset_mist said:

    I’ve watched this band move north from Biscay all afternoon, very slow moving, will it decay as it hits higher pressure, it’s now over the Cherbourg peninsula.

    1E6D5DA1-0F62-4772-A87F-CB78332477A2.jpeg

    Is it moving north do you think? 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

    I am not surprised by the snow performance so far as this seems on a par with what easterlies delivered here in 2010 and 2018. The shower bands need to align themselves perpendicular to the isobars, which is what they do in almost every other type of precipitation situation. Unless some sort of organised front/trough/small low develops in the flow, we are highly unlikely to see any material accumulations.

    The biggest disappointment has been the daytime maxima, both yesterday and today getting above 2C, when sub-zero was modelled.

    I think the very least I would expect from this cold spell is for some significant falling and settling snow during the transition back to mild, even if it melts fairly soon afterwards. The 'breakdown' ought to have the ability to deliver a significant period of snow as from the modelling I have seen, the cold air only retreats slowly and continues to draw up surface cold from the continent as it does so, meaning that temperatures should only rise slowly.

    Edited by The Enforcer
    Re-ordering.
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

    Some really low dew points being forecast for Saturday as wind veers SSE, a question for the more knowledgeable in here, if the winds veer South would we not pick up streamers off the English Channel?

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms /Snow
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.

    Evening all,after an overnight low of -1.5°C temp climbed to 2.3°C at around 3pm and now currently back down to -0.9°C.......had a nice little dusting this morning to add to the other paltry efforts so far this winter 😏

    Quick question to the more knowledgeable peeps on here.

    Looking at the outlook and possible breakdown at some point.....does anyone think that this breakdown will get pushed back further and further?........... as in the past I've seen cold spells last longer as it takes the Atlantic a few bites of the cherry to make proper inroads....or does anyone think the mild air will win out more quickly?

    My gut feeling is that cold air is going to hold on.🙂

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
    8 minutes ago, Glenosnow said:

    Evening all,after an overnight low of -1.5°C temp climbed to 2.3°C at around 3pm and now currently back down to -0.9°C.......had a nice little dusting this morning to add to the other paltry efforts so far this winter 😏

    Quick question to the more knowledgeable peeps on here.

    Looking at the outlook and possible breakdown at some point.....does anyone think that this breakdown will get pushed back further and further?........... as in the past I've seen cold spells last longer as it takes the Atlantic a few bites of the cherry to make proper inroads....or does anyone think the mild air will win out more quickly?

    My gut feeling is that cold air is going to hold on.🙂

    Let's hope your gut feeling is correct. There seems so much uncertainty dont think anyone knows,blimey even the weather dont know what is want to do,cloudy bit of sun bit of dandruff etc. All we want is snow and a decent amount surely not to much to ask.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

    This Evenings ECM looks rather underwhelming.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    2 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

    This Evenings ECM looks rather underwhelming.

    That's putting it kindly.  🙄😴

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    The graph of inevitability Mr. Anderson

    viewimage.thumb.png.2340258a6c40f4e11ebfae3866e130ff.png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: W. Sussex, E. Hants & Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, snow and ice. The usual.
  • Location: W. Sussex, E. Hants & Portsmouth
    2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    The graph of inevitability Mr. Anderson

    viewimage.thumb.png.2340258a6c40f4e11ebfae3866e130ff.png

    That's what The Oracle wants us to believe.

    Or something.

    Mind you, the brief spell of sunshine today was actually lovely, even as a die-hard cold lover, I'm almost ready for the inevitable. 😔

     

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    The graph of inevitability Mr. Anderson

    viewimage.thumb.png.2340258a6c40f4e11ebfae3866e130ff.png

    And there it is SPRING...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...