South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

[AWD]

Overnight 0z runs at least give a little more confidence of seeing some falling snow tomorrow, if nothing significant still.  All the models below showing a similiar theme of a dying occlusion traversing the West Country early tomorrow afternoon.  I haven't got time to post a series of charts from every model, so here is a snapshot of the better charts from each model;

0z ICON;

0z Arpege;

3z UKV (compared to its recent output, even the below is an "upgrade" of sorts);

0z Arome;

Whilst none show anything even slightly significant (I'd like to make that clear, the white flag is still very much waving for that), quite a few do show some light, patchy snow falling tomorrow.  With the expected, very cold feeling day, it will make it at least feel wintry for those out and about.

[wiltshire weather]

Just to add some other short range models for Sat afternoon:

Hirlam (doesnt show precip type):

Harmonie:

Also Navgem and JMA have similar themes.

[chris55]

As AWD says a chance for a bit of light snow tomorrow.

ICON 

[wiltshire weather]

As I mentioned above, ECM is also joining the 'party'  

Animation for Saturday, looks like Ireland and Wales are the places to be!!

 

Edited February 12, 2021 by wiltshire weather

[Dorsetbred]

Morning All, a frost free night, due mainly to the SE wind and cloud cover, with the overnight low of 0.4°C at: 06:13, currently 1.7°C...the strength of the onshore wind  creating some breakers as shown in the beachcam shot this morning..

[Dorsetbred]

3 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

As I mentioned above, ECM is also joining the 'party'  

Animation for Saturday, looks like Ireland and Wales are the places to be!!

 

If I had a pound for every time  I've seen wxcharts over do things I'd be a rich man! Let's see if it gets this one right..

[wiltshire weather]

2 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

If I had a pound for every time  I've seen wxcharts over do things I'd be a rich man! Let's see if it gets this one right..

 I'm not sure if its WXCharts or the ECM model output that's at fault tbh !

[Dorsetbred]

21 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

 I'm not sure if its WXCharts or the ECM model output that's at fault tbh !

Agreed...

[CheesepuffScott]

Good morning, breezy with partly cloudy skies after a low of -1.9°C at: 05:56

Currently -0.5°C

[MP-R]

Brighter today and not so cold overnight, but the breeze is significant.

Squeaky bum time now wrt any snow tomorrow. Looks like a real bore fest from Sunday onwards.

[Richard Fisher]

Game Over for Saturday. Met Office warnings just updated and have not been extended to the West Country. 

[jtay]

An absolute sparkler today and I've just booked a trip to Salisbury tip for Monday.

Exciting times.

[warmintim]

Just now, jtay said:

An absolute sparkler today and I've just booked a trip to Salisbury tip for Monday.

Exciting times.

Living the dream...

[Wilxy]

Lovely Winter's day but couldn't help notice how low the humidity is today at 53%! with a temp of 2.1°C, dew p -6.5°C, its going to feel raw in that wind today!

[Bald Eagle]

35 minutes ago, TomW said:

Lovely Winter's day but couldn't help notice how low the humidity is today at 53%! with a temp of 2.1°C, dew p -6.5°C, its going to feel raw in that wind today!

I can confirm that outside my crane at 70m up its 35mph and absolutely baltic!!

[Nights King]

Well I've just been out and cut the lawn ready for spring. Looks very smart. Shouldn't cut in winter but it's hardly wintry and dry easterly made it lovey to trim. 

[lettice]

A low 0f 0.7c at 5am.
Lovely sunny spells today.
Now 3c, 1028.4 hPa
Wind is easterly 16-18mph with plenty of 20-25mph gusts.

[Blizzardof82]

1 hour ago, TomW said:

Lovely Winter's day but couldn't help notice how low the humidity is today at 53%! with a temp of 2.1°C, dew p -6.5°C, its going to feel raw in that wind today!

Yes really good day for drying washing, I have humidity now of 51% and dew points of -7.1c 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 hours ago, jtay said:

An absolute sparkler today and I've just booked a trip to Salisbury tip for Monday.

Exciting times.

Congratulations! I bet you can't wait!! Enjoy your holiday!

[Andy Bown]

Fantastic view across Warminster to Cley Hill! A very summery sky on a freezing, windy afternoon.

This sort of weather pattern, front stalling out West with strong SE wind and mid level cloud would bring us our hottest summer days.

[warmintim]

4 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Fantastic view across Warminster to Cley Hill! A very summery sky on a freezing, windy afternoon.

This sort of weather pattern, front stalling out West with strong SE wind and mid level cloud would bring us our hottest summer days.

Cop heap?

[matt111]

Dry and mostly sunny but feels very cold in the wind. 2.1°C

[Andy Bown]

47 minutes ago, warmintim said:

Cop heap?

Absolutely! We love those woods and the field to Elm Hill.

[warmintim]

4 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Absolutely! We love those woods and the field to Elm Hill.

I often park by the Golf Course road and walk up to Cradle Hill. Nice loop with epic views (and sometimes UFO's).

[khodds]

How long is the warm up meant to last? I haven’t looked at the charts. What’s the latest icon saying for tomorrow too?